We're not doing well on Nintendo Bingo here. It took 18 posts for 'next Dreamcast' to come up. It never took that long when speculating about the Wii in 2006.
Anyway, there's too many factors that haven't been identified yet to make any firm prediction, but like most other people I'll say if they get the launch date, the launch price, and the launch lineup right, then they could feasibly sell as many as they can make. If they only get 2/3 (or worse), then their ability to do so dwindles considerably.

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