archbrix said:
I agree, it will be very difficult to repeat the success of the Wii to non-gamers. But with a tablet interface and the right games, they can still do very well for themselves if they play their cards right. The problem with your Gamecube comparison though, is that it was eclipsed 7 to 1 by the market leading console, the PS2. I certainly don't see WiiU losing anywhere near that margin, even if Nintendo is relegated to third place. The Gamecube was not the successor to a hugely popular console, it had nothing to differentiate itself from the competition and it launched a year after PS2 had a substantial lead. None of these will be obstacles for WiiU. |
I don't think any of that really matters. I just think that the people who will be buying a Wii U are the same people who bought a Gamecube. You keep saying the PS2 was a clear market leader and that the Wii U won't have that competition. Again I don't think it matters, combine the MS and Sony fan bases and you have see the same competition. Sure there isn't one single crazy leader like the PS2, but Nintendo has to compete with two very strong alternatives to the Wii U, both of which are on the market right now. Those gamers are very likely to just wait for the Next Xbox and PS4.
The NES was the market leader because it was the first major console after the crash of the industry and Nintendo used shady licensing deals to keep 3rd party games off it's competition, namely the Sega Master System. The Genesis split the market and Nintendo had to claw it's way back to the lead but the SNES didn't control the market like the NES did. By the time the N64 hit Sony had split the market even further and the N64 for many reasons was never able to win over the gamers who had switched to the Playstation. The next generation saw a four way split. The Dreamcast was the first in and the first out, but the Xbox split the market again. The PS2 road high on the success of the original Playstation and the Gamecube only had it's devoted fan base left. That's why Nintendo had to shake things up with the Wii. They couldn't afford to create the most advanced gaming tech to win over all the non-Nintendo fan gamers so they instead created a system based on motion controls and convinced everyone who doesn't play games to buy Wii Sports and Wii Fit. It worked, but those people aren't gamers and they don't want new systems, the Wii is the first and last console they will ever buy. Next gen is going to be all about the gamer. Fans will stick with the console that has the exclusives they want. Everyone else is up for grabs. Unfortunately for Nintendo developers are mostly promising 3rd party ports and those aren't going to convince anybody to switch from their Xbox 360 and PS3.
The tablet interface is going to be an afterthought for 3rd party devs. They are going to port twin stick games to the Wii U controller and move some of the game's UI to the controller. Nintendo is going to do some cool stuff, but unlike the Wii Mote I don't think people are going to go crazy for it. The Wii's motion controls were a breath of fresh air. Personally I don't like motion controls and prefer a standard gamepad, but games like Wii Sports hit a cord with people. It's fun to get up off the coach and swing a controller around like a baseball bat. The tablet is new to consoles, but it's not new to consumers. Most of us have touch screen phones and stuff like Angry Birds has already become common place. It's not going to be the kind of gimmick that gets people to jump on board the hype train like the Wii Mote did.
People may just wait and if they do Nintendo is going to be fighting a uphill battle when the other next gen systems start to arrive with more power and devoted achievement whores. The Gamecube kept me happy sitting next to my Xbox and PS2. I loved Metroid Prime and Zelda TP just as much as Halo and SW KOTOR. But most people seemed to get by with just a PS2. The PS2 of this generation is a combination of the Xbox 360 and the PS3. You might think it's the Wii because of all it's hardware sales, but far too many of those Wii's are sitting in grandparents livings rooms collecting dust with nothing more than it's pack in game to keep it company.
I do hope the Wii U proves me wrong. I would love a three way market split. That way we as gamers all win. We will just have to wait and see.
