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Forums - Nintendo - How do you think the Wii U will do its first 3 months? Based on what we know now.

 

Sales prediction from launch- end of 2012?

1-2 million units 57 17.12%
 
2-4 million units 93 27.93%
 
4-6 million units 87 26.13%
 
6-10 million units 44 13.21%
 
other 5 1.50%
 
Delayed 5 1.50%
 
Cancelled 9 2.70%
 
See Results 30 9.01%
 
Total:330
kain_kusanagi said:

I'm not desperate, I actualy find that insulting.

The desperation remark was not meant to belittle your opinions, but was aimed solely at your virtual reality comment, which was a bizarre extreme and came off as irrational.


I could say you are delusional though. You think a touch screen is going to set the gaming world on fire. You believe non-gamers have transformed into permanent core gamers.

I believe it is possible that Nintendo can deliver fun experiences and differentiate themselves with their new approach if they are successful.  And I never once said that all non-gamers were destined to become hardcore gamers; I said that it is certainly possible that Nintendo could again entice many non-gamers into finding reasons to buy a WiiU, and a tablet interface is highly intuive.  Everyone is a non-gamer before they are ever a gamer, after all.  And it is erroneous to assume that all people new to gaming who were enticed by the Wii will never have an interest in gaming again.

 

You want Nintendo to succeed so badly that you only see positives in the Wii U.

Of course I want to see the WiiU succeed... Nintendo is my favorite company, after all.  That doesn't mean that I am blind to their past mistakes or believe that they are infallible.


You think the Wii U and the Gamecube have nothing in common. Well I say they clearly share very similar situations on all the most important levels...

@underlined:  You still have not provided one shred of evidence to support this.  The Gamecube was launched after a very modest selling console, its timing was bad, it launched against a strong branded console that already had a substantial lead, it had nothing to set it apart from the competition, and its 1st party games were not system selling affairs.  The WiiU has none of these shortcomings, and we know nothing about what its 1st party software will be capable of yet.  So tell me, what are "all of the most important levels" that they clearly share?


... and hopefully you at least will consider that Nintendo may never regain the hardcore gamers it lost this generation.

Of course I consider this.  But I think they do have a shot at doing very well for themselves in this area, whereas you seem to believe that they are hopeless already.  In order to do exceptionally well, Nintendo doesn't need loyal core Microsoft and Sony fans; they already have their own core fans.  They need some of the casual Wii buyers, sure, but they also need those numerous gamers who are not brand loyal and buy lots of games; the people who helped push the NES, the PS/PS2 and the 360 to numbers that brand loyal fans wouldn't do by themselves.  It's these people that Nintendo needs to win over... soccer moms didn't push the PS2 to 150m units, and there certainly aren't 150m core 1st party Sony fans.  It all comes down to WiiU's games, market perception, and not squandering their lead.

So yes, I recognize that Nintendo could fall flat on their face with WiiU; it just won't be for the reasons you're suggesting.





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It doesn't matter so much what they sell in the first three to six months. The real question is how they are doing in a year or more time after release when much of the initial sales hysteria has died down. It seems pretty obvious that aside from stupid pricing or releasing a system which outright doesn't work they'll likely sell out their initial shipments on earnt brand recognition and goodwill alone and deservedly so.



Tease.

spurgeonryan said:
Squilliam said:
It doesn't matter so much what they sell in the first three to six months. The real question is how they are doing in a year or more time after release when much of the initial sales hysteria has died down. It seems pretty obvious that aside from stupid pricing or releasing a system which outright doesn't work they'll likely sell out their initial shipments on earnt brand recognition and goodwill alone and deservedly so.


I agree. Maybe I will make a how will Nintendo do in its first Year on the Wii U thread when the time comes.

I will say it will do better than the GC. Is that good enough now though? I doubt it will be as popular as the wii was.

Well it depends on what you call popularity. Do you talk about how much people on this website profess to love it, the overall sales, the proportion of the marketshare for next/current generation consoles it gets?

It's complicated.

It's simple.

Both work.



Tease.

archbrix said:
 

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...


Well, that would be MS if they didn't allow used games on their new system right?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Just gotta add that Wii U wopuld be perfect for soccer moms: the kids get a new gaming system that they've been bItching about, AND mom can take her old games and use them on this brand new console... wouldn't that be win-win?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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DanneSandin said:
archbrix said:
 

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...


Well, that would be MS if they didn't allow used games on their new system right?

Yeah, that or the game TV they have to be developing, according to David Perry, lol.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-02-07-gaikai-microsoft-will-have-to-enter-tv-market



archbrix said:
DanneSandin said:
archbrix said:
 

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...


Well, that would be MS if they didn't allow used games on their new system right?

Yeah, that or the game TV they have to be developing, according to David Perry, lol.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-02-07-gaikai-microsoft-will-have-to-enter-tv-market


If they start making "gaming TV:s" it won't be untill next-next gen anyways, with Apple taking the lead around 2016/17/18 half way thru the generation. And it would make sense: they could easily use iPad/iPhone as the controller! And they will of course store everything on iCloud, and you'll buy the games thru iTunes (or something similar).

Then Sony will jump right in (that is, if they haven't sold off their TV department to manage financially), and MS will buy Panasonic, Sharp or Vizio and get in the Game TV race as well by 2020. Nintendo will be left alone in the purely gaming market and sweep in and take all hardcore gamers and 50% of the casual market - cuz they'll still be innovating the gameplay. But that's in 2025 I guess...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Oh, and I voted for 2-4 m in the first three months - even thu it's waaay to early to tell...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

spurgeonryan said:
DanneSandin said:
Oh, and I voted for 2-4 m in the first three months - even thu it's waaay to early to tell...


I really think that the last month alone it will push out some major numbers. It is Christmas as you know. Are you basing your 2-4 million off a world wide release?

Yes, the console will launch about the same time around the world - perhaps one week or two earlier in Japan and/or NA... Is there any other way to launch new hardware nowadays?!

I think the WiiU will either succeed unexpetedly (spelling?!) well OR have a rocky start, gaining momentum as time passes (not unlike the 3DS). It's so hard to tell right now; we don't know which games it's launching with and which games will make the launch window... Considering what we know right NOW, I'd say 2-4m sold systems...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

spurgeonryan said:
DanneSandin said:
spurgeonryan said:
DanneSandin said:
Oh, and I voted for 2-4 m in the first three months - even thu it's waaay to early to tell...


I really think that the last month alone it will push out some major numbers. It is Christmas as you know. Are you basing your 2-4 million off a world wide release?

Yes, the console will launch about the same time around the world - perhaps one week or two earlier in Japan and/or NA... Is there any other way to launch new hardware nowadays?!

I think the WiiU will either succeed unexpetedly (spelling?!) well OR have a rocky start, gaining momentum as time passes (not unlike the 3DS). It's so hard to tell right now; we don't know which games it's launching with and which games will make the launch window... Considering what we know right NOW, I'd say 2-4m sold systems...

Well I do not know how much we should trust GDC reactions, but they are having mixed feelings about the wii U. I hope Nintendo did not show anything different than a few months back. I still think it will have a big year once it comes out just because it will have not competition. Other than PS3 and 360. Which will be a gen behind by then.

True that WiiU is only facing PS360 - but that's quite a formidable opponants mind you... Remember that WiiU will at least be 200 bucks more expansive when it comes out - so it really needs to have significantly better graphics, so that you can tell the differences between WiiU and PS360. I mean, why would you else buy a much more expansive machine?! it's gotta be better



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.