Yeah Rol pretty much spelled it out in his post. The Wii will sell at a faster rate this year. Wii production didn't get to the 1.8 million a month level until the last third of the year.

i wouldnt say hands down even if it makes it first which i doubt though

Thanks for the analysis. Can't wait to read your weekly column in the Wall Street Journal!

Rol, FTW! 

yeah he wrote it really nicely i completely agree with him

Wii should be able to beat the PSP, unless demand drops a lot for the Wii, and PSP demand rises an incredible amount. As Rol said, it would be extremely difficult, and very unlike, that the PSP would be able to move that many units that quickly.

I was thinking psp was at 35m so I was like wth to all these people saying Wii. But since it's only at 30m i'm putting my money on Wii.

Yes Wii will sell 20m consoles before psp sells 10m.

On one hand the PSP doesn't seem to have as strong games coming out this year as last (though I could be wrong as I do not follow it closely) but on the other hand the dismal software sales means that it should affect it less (i.e. it is sold as a portable media player to many people). Also, the new model spiked sales last year, which will not happen this year but if the level at which the sales settle at post Christmas is higher than last year thanks to the slim they could possibly sell as much.

Still, given that 9M seems to be an average PSP year, that it is their 4th year (which generally sees slow downs if you are not the top dog) and with a good year last year they only sold 11M it is possible that they will not reach 40M until mid-december.

Wii's sales are mostly production limited and while I expect Nintendo to stockpile for next Christmas I do not expect them to start doing so immediately. As they said themselves, being sold out makes it harder to estimate demand and plan future production so their first goal at the beginning of this year will be to get every Wii's they produce each month to store shelves until there is a healthy supply in all 3 territories. They probably will start stockpiling once they increase production again (a lot like last year).

The Wii, with current production should be at about 37.5M at the end of october (19.5 + 1.8* 10) and it sold 2.3M worldwide in november 2007 which I expect Nintendo to be able to replicate, which would put the Wii at 40M at the end of the first week of December, just before the PSP according to my estimation.

Now there is an additional factor for the PSP and that is its price. A price drop could help maintain last year's sales and make it sell faster than what I am predicting at the current price so my prediction is this:

If the PSP's price drops before CY Q4 this year then the PSP will be at 40M first, otherwise the Wii will.

The PSP will beat the Wii by about 20 weeks.

I took this weeks sales date for both systems and I added it continuously to the total sales and see how many additions (or weeks) it would take to hit 40million. The Wii would take 46 weeks and the PSP 26. Of course, this does not include any jumps or drops in sales, but since they are done at the same interval, and the size of the game, that I think the PSP will make it there first. This is unless that Nintendo greatly increases sales and if Wii Fit and Brawl pull in a lot of units.

I think they will be pretty dead even, but Wii will reach 40M first. Both will reach it by the end of the year though

Can Wii outsell the PSP on average 2:1 for the entire year (or until it gets to 40mil)?

That's the actual question at hand, and personally i think it is quite feasible, but I would like to see at least a month of data before I jump to any conclusions

On a side note: Somebody bookmark this thread, it will be great for eating crow later