On one hand the PSP doesn't seem to have as strong games coming out this year as last (though I could be wrong as I do not follow it closely) but on the other hand the dismal software sales means that it should affect it less (i.e. it is sold as a portable media player to many people). Also, the new model spiked sales last year, which will not happen this year but if the level at which the sales settle at post Christmas is higher than last year thanks to the slim they could possibly sell as much.
Still, given that 9M seems to be an average PSP year, that it is their 4th year (which generally sees slow downs if you are not the top dog) and with a good year last year they only sold 11M it is possible that they will not reach 40M until mid-december.
Wii's sales are mostly production limited and while I expect Nintendo to stockpile for next Christmas I do not expect them to start doing so immediately. As they said themselves, being sold out makes it harder to estimate demand and plan future production so their first goal at the beginning of this year will be to get every Wii's they produce each month to store shelves until there is a healthy supply in all 3 territories. They probably will start stockpiling once they increase production again (a lot like last year).
The Wii, with current production should be at about 37.5M at the end of october (19.5 + 1.8* 10) and it sold 2.3M worldwide in november 2007 which I expect Nintendo to be able to replicate, which would put the Wii at 40M at the end of the first week of December, just before the PSP according to my estimation.
Now there is an additional factor for the PSP and that is its price. A price drop could help maintain last year's sales and make it sell faster than what I am predicting at the current price so my prediction is this:
If the PSP's price drops before CY Q4 this year then the PSP will be at 40M first, otherwise the Wii will.
"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"
