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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2008 at Bruceongames

The Wii has older technology so it will show it's age sooner. To the point where it can't compete. Nintendo know this so will have an HD replacement available sooner than Microsoft or Sony need to create replacements. (Though I think there is a possibility of Microsoft going early again to have a two model range and to put pressure on Sony). At the point that Nintendo launch their new model I do not have the faintest idea who will be ahead. What I do know is that there are around 100 million loyal Playstation owners waiting to upgrade.


Even if it were true that the Wii will age faster, and I disagree on that point, it is extremely unlikely that Nintendo will jump the gun before the other two systems. Nintendo has never been the first on the market in a console generation. Not once. It is extremely unlikely that they are going to abandon their fastest selling system so quickly. It is the first Nintendo made console that will outsell the previous version, and they supported all of those for at least 5 years.

The 10 year life-cycle of these new consoles will not be without competition from the same company. The PS2 is still fulfilling its ten year life cycle you might notice. The PS1 had a similar phase where it over lapped with the PS2. Why everyone thinks Sony's PR line means that there won't be a PS4 until 2016 is really beyond me. Sony has heavily implied that the PS3 will be conitued on after the PS4 is released and that is where it will get its 10 year life span.

And finally we come to the famous stand by of the loyal fanbase. That has never, and likely will never exist in console gaming. If fans were loyal we would all be playing Atari right now. Nintendo showed just how loyal fans were when it became the top selling system, and then Sony showed it again by supplanting Nintendo. Brandname loyalty simply does not exist in this market. People follow the games.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

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Bruceongames said:
Sqrl said:

@Bruce

To be honest you are using nothing more than speculation as the basis for your points. But more over I have to say you seem to have become nothing more than a troll who has attempted to hide his intentions. You have also quickly become less and less rational in your positions and have actually changed stances on points that are quite telling of your agenda. For example these two quotes:

 

"It is impossible to say who will do best out of the three."
"This is why the PS3 will, ultimately, blow the Wii away."

It seems you came into this thread with that conclusion in mind and you wrote the article with that conclusion in mind. Truly the epitome of what not to do in journalism. And here I thought we were going to get a new and interesting member with well formulated opinions. But perhaps I am getting a bit ahead of myself, maybe you have a reasonable explanation for this?

In any case, after playing catch-up in this thread after only a few hours its pretty clear this is getting out of hand. At this point it would better just to let it go and try again. Coming into a community and having your first thread and post turn out to be a major pissing match isn't a good way to start. I'm sure you never intended for it to get this way but here we are.


 

Those two quotes are mutually compatible. They could mean that I think that the Wii will come third. (Which is more than possible). To clarify I think that the Wii may possibly maintain it's lead this year. And possibly lose it over 2009. Over the ten year life of the 360 and PS3 they should beat the current iteration of the Wii in total sales, mainly because they will be on the shop shelves for more years. The Wii has older technology so it will show it's age sooner. To the point where it can't compete. Nintendo know this so will have an HD replacement available sooner than Microsoft or Sony need to create replacements. (Though I think there is a possibility of Microsoft going early again to have a two model range and to put pressure on Sony). At the point that Nintendo launch their new model I do not have the faintest idea who will be ahead. What I do know is that there are around 100 million loyal Playstation owners waiting to upgrade. The Wii seems to have attracted the same blind fanboy following that the PS2 once had. Just look at the signatures on here. They have blind faith in their system as it is in the market today and cannot see the broader picture. I remember when the Atari VCS 2600 was the hot, unavailable toy one Christmas. But shortly afterwards they were burying hundreds of thousands of game cartridges in the desert.

 Sorry you either think it is too close to call or you think the PS3 will inevitably "blow the Wii away".  It makes no sense to take the extreme view and the moderate view.



To Each Man, Responsibility

Bruce Bruce Bruce...

you obviously have pre-conceived notions of what SHOULD happen.

IF Sony MS and Nintendo gone the "more power/better graphics" route - and sony had come out at their Current pricing- Sony would be Wiping the floor with them

MS and Sony chose that Route. and they are Selling Comparable to each other -sony gaining VERY slowly on MS - due to the year head start MS had.

Nintendo Delibrately chose NOT to do HD -they could have & the System would have been ~299. They Delibrately Chose not to have a HDD (imo they DO need one) Delibrately Chose to change the controllers...

and the people Buying the console...are snapping it up, for 14 months now i have Seen wii's available for purchase in the stores Three times... i go into best buy, target, toysrus's Several times a month and Three times- THREE- in 14 months i have seen the Wii on the shelves.

the 360- except for release- always on shelves
ps3 -except for the week post release- always on shelves


Lack of 3rd party games... EVERY SINGLE MAJOR 3rd party Developer in Japan- except for the few that the 360 had developing for- was Banking on the PS3..

Every. Single. One.

then came E3 2006 where the line to play the wii was like 4-6HOURS long,,,the line for the ps3- non existant.

WHY? because Nintendo did something Different which has struck a Cord with the people Playing it, it is just More Fun using the wiimote/controller.

Now 3rd party Devs are shifting teams to the Wii Development cycle- Capcom has Several major titles come to the Wii -

a Few titles that were for the PS3 have been cancelled and xferred to the Wii- Monster Hunter 3 the most notable of the bunch.

3rd parties were caught Flat Footed- all their analysts all their predictions said PS3 = winner

ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ANALYST(VERY few Exceptions) for the gaming industry has been WRONG so far by a HUGE amount on how this generation is going. most analysts were saying the wii would get AT MOST GC numbers...by 2012. it is 2008 and the Wii almost Blown by that number.

the only thing that prevented the Wii from being ~25 million last year was Production.

Who in their right mind - from analyzing past data would predict that 1.8 MILLION units a month would not be enough to satisfy demand up thru christmas this past year

 

examples of Analysts Blowing it:

 

June 2006- Jason Anderson IDG

or 2007, IDG predicts Microsoft dominance for the next two years in the North American next-gen game hardware market, at least in terms of installed base. The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.

 

To DATE the Wii has Surpassed his 2008 prediction by over a Million units...with 12 months to go...over 50% to low

he was Damn close with the 360 (sub 5%)

he was WAY off  on the PS3 (over 50% too high)

for mr anderson the Wii and the PS3  are pretty much flip flopped their positions on Results

 

August 2006 Yankee Group-

 Though the report, titled 'Can Sony Hold Off Microsoft as Video Game Consoles Emerge as a Platform for Digital Distribution?', concedes Microsoft's early jump on the competition with its Xbox 360, it predicts that by 2011, the console will be overtaken by the PlayStation 3 in the market. The firm predicts that, by this time, the PlayStation 3 will own 44 percent of console sales in North America, having sold approximately 30 million units, and narrowly beating Microsoft's 40 percent and 27 million units sold.

Interestingly, despite the fervor surrounding the impending launch of the Wii console from Nintendo, the analyst firm only anticipates Nintendo being able to sell slightly more than 11 million units between its launch in the fourth quarter this year and 2011, at which time it expects the Kyoto-based company to own just 16 percent of the North American console market.

 

The wii will pass their 2011 Analysis in 2008 3 FULL YEARS ahead of schedule

they Might be right on when the ps3 passes the 360 though..Current sales put it around 2011..so they are Right there.

 

2005-Piper jaffray

Piper Jaffray says by 2008, PlayStation 3 will have grabbed 45-50% of the hardware market, with Xbox 360 barely trailing at 35-40% and Nintendo dropping to a minority share of 15%. In fact, they predict Revolution adoption to move at an almost snail's pace, with only half a million units next year, two in 2007 and three in 2008.

 

boy was HE wrong...

 

march 2006- In-Stat

Sony will continue its domination of the video console market through 2010, though its lead will likely shrink due to stronger competition from Microsoft and Nintendo, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says.

 

well so far they're Really wrong on the wii (revolution) & ps3 ...360 is 8%off

 

 those are a few that i grabbed just REALLY fast from Google.

 i know there is a List Somewhere- couldn't find it listing Every Major Gaming Analyst/fir's prediction and the VAST majority said the ps3 would be #1 and the Wii a Distant 3rd..

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



"Those two quotes are mutually compatible. They could mean that I think that the Wii will come third. (Which is more than possible). To clarify I think that the Wii may possibly maintain it's lead this year. And possibly lose it over 2009."

Keep applying that logic every January and you'll be right at some point - so besides telling the "top Industry Experts" that the Wii is either gonna maintain it's lead or lose it - is there any other nuggets of valuble information you tell them?

I bet you were one of those analysts that also compared the Ipod to the Hula Hoop and labelled analogue sticks as a fad as well, when the Wii beats the Gamecubes total sales will you then acknowledge that it has been successfull?



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

This is just going down hill, so I am done here.

A bit of friendly advice for everyone....do the same



To Each Man, Responsibility
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This has only been going downhill because you gave Bruce the benefit of the doubt and thought he was tryig to be insightful rather than troll. This thread has been the same quality the entire duration honestly, and isn't going to go anywhere good.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

I think the mistake that Bruce and several Wii doomsayers make is not considering that Nintendo is in a very strong position to prevent slowing sales ...

Right now Nintendo is (from our understanding) turning a profit on every Wii and is selling a ton of software, which means that they could (potentially) drop the price of the Wii by (up to) $100 with no serious consequences. As time goes on and they take advantage of the 65nm or 45nm process (and integrate the CPU and GPU) they will see further cost reductions.

On top of their massive cost advantage the #1 cited problem for the Wii (lack of HD) is really not that big of a problem to correct; it isn't that complicated to "improve" your GPU to upscale or interpolate your textures, increase the output resolution, and perform high levels (16x) of Anisotropic Filtering and Antialaising when you are already taking advantage of a dramatically smaller process (45nm). In late 2008 or early 2009 Nintendo could (easily) release a Wii HD which (essentially) upscaled all Wii games to 1080i,720p or 1080p without any developer interaction which was still (dramatically) cheaper than the XBox 360 or PS3; it still wouldn't be as powerful but most people wouldn't know that anyways.



Hi Bruce and welcome to VGChartz. I've tried to give you the benefit of the doubt here, but your arguments are getting less and less convincing. Your assertion that the Wii will slow down and stop selling soon would be a lot more convincing if this were 2006... but unfortunately it's not 2006 anymore. It's 2008, and we've consistently seen the Wii (dramatically) outsell its competition, in every region, at pretty much all times.

You may not know this, but your arguments for why the Wii will suddently stop selling are exactly the same as what we've been hearing here at VGChartz for over a year now. We had some older forum-goers named Kwaad and Hus who insisted, over and over again, that people would stop buying Wiis as more HDTVs were sold. That certainly hasn't happened so far. One reason some of the responses here are getting prickly is because this topic has been debated to death already.

It comes down to this. On the one hand, we have 14 months of HARD sales data, in which the Wii has been successful everywhere and has become the fastest-selling console of all time. On the other hand, we have vague theories and speculation that at some indeterminate date in the future, it will lose popularity and stop selling. Which do you think is the more likely scenario, based on the facts that we have at hand right now?

You really, really haven't the faintest idea what you are talking about.

The PS3 has vastly more processing power than the PS2, more memory and a hard drive.
It is not just graphics that are better but also key elements such as physics and AI.
This is why the PS3 will, ultimately, blow the Wii away. The Wii is more comparable with the PS2.
Statements like this rapidly undermind credibility in the poster. Graphics, physics and AI, "memory and a hard drive" all have absolutely nothing to do with a console's success in the marketplace. This has long been established; stop thinking in terms of system specs. What sales data do you have that would indicate that the PS3 is going to magically overcome a 10m deficit in units? I've watched the sales charts here for a year now, and I've yet to see much in that regard.


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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

It's interesting that so many people are taking Nintendo's business decision when faced with a cheap or a HD compatible console question as a negative thing when they clearly realised that as the Wii is so different and given the Gamecubes weak stature - their best approach would be to offer it cheap to build a user base and when HD technology boom does take off and Wii is probably reduced then release a new Wii model with HD (and probably storage, maybe even tighter motion controls) for the same bargain price that does automatically upscale old Wii games. The Wii will probably then be the base model (probably named classic or something) and several different Wii's will be released - like Apple did with the Ipod and now Ipod is a brand on it's own.



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

@Bruceongames

There is a major flaw in your persistant thinking that once people become accustomed to HD they will demand it. And I have unequivical proof this is not so. The very PC your looking at.

Your an industry veteran. Who are the biggest PC gamers? What demographic? Women in their 40's. What do they play on the PC? Mainly flash games. Guess what? PC monitors are HD. Have been for years, if not forever. So if your theory holds water, why doesn't everyone DEMAND HD graphics from their PC games. Look at the best selling PC games. Not Crysis!!!! Not UT3!! Friggin WoW and Sims. Are these customers demanding to see HD on their HD monitors? No. Even the old Blizzard games like the original strategy Wow set, Starcraft and Diablo continue to sell decently. Dispite having very antiquated graphics.

Yes, most PC games come in with a big bang, top end graphics, drop off quick in sales, and then they come out with a new version with better graphics a few years later and repeat. Those game buyers are the PS3/360 gamers. Wow and Sims and flash gamers are the Wii gamers. Who do you think is more profittable? Who will last longer? Both have a future. HD graphics only appeal to a minority of people, although granted, a minority that spends a lot on games.