Hi, I write an industry blog about the video games industry, mainly from a marketing perspective, with an article just about every weekday. http://www.bruceongames.com/ Here is today's article: What will 2008 bring to video gaming? #1 Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. Happy new year. And back to work! As is traditional at this time of year I will try and give some pointers to what I think may happen over the next twelve months. Firstly let’s look at the current situation. According to VG Chartz there are now 8.71 million Sony PS3s sold to end users, whilst the Microsoft Xbox 360 has sold nearly twice as many at 16.02 million, but has been overtaken by the Nintendo Wii with 19.45 million. All three of these are dwarfed by ownership of the Nintendo DS which has 64.92million happy owners, far more than the three previous machines combined. The PSP continues to sell with 29.79 million but most of these are used as media players, not as gaming machines. Sony PS3 sales were given a big kick by the price reduction, despite the lack of AAA exclusives on the machine. This year sees massive system sellers such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and LittleBigPlanet which at long last will give the PS3 credibility and make it a worthwhile purchase. The delayed Playstation Home has the potential to be huge. Unlike Xbox Live this is geared up very much to be an online social networking community and we all know how big they can become. Sony should recover their position a lot during 2008, they need to with the amount of money this is costing them. Microsoft have already pulled off what may well be the biggest marketing coup of 2008. Grand Theft Auto IV on the 360 is going to have a lot of exclusive downloadable content that the PS3 won’t have. Considering that this will certainly be the biggest game of the year this exclusive content will swing a lot of buying decisions over to 360. Other than this Microsoft have more games coming out for the 360 than Sony has for the PS3 and a lot of room to use the price mechanism to maintain their market position. The Nintendo Wii could very well be a bubble that is already bursting. Or it could build on the existing solid base to become an entertainment phenomenon. Wii Fit will keep the impetus going through Q1&2 whilst Animal Crossing will be massive in Q4. These alone will probably be insufficient so Nintendo need some AAA third party titles. Nintendo like to upgrade their hardware so we could see an enhanced Wii with, for instance, a hard drive. Also a more powerful HD console must be on the way. The DS for Nintendo threatens to become a ubiquitous device like the Walkman was for Sony. This year should see another upgrade with bigger screens. Nintendo are perfectly placed to make a telephone version (with a partner like, say, NEC?) which could deal a huge blow to both Nokia and Apple. What is certain is that this generation is still in it’s infancy. There are still over 130 million owners of last generation consoles who have yet to upgrade (mainly PS2 owners waiting to see if the PS3 will be worth buying). If you add in the constant growth of the market and the popularising effect of the Wii then there could easily be a market for a further 200 million home consoles in this generation. Four and a half times more than have been sold to date. A big factor this generation will be multiple machine ownership. To a far higher level than in previous generations. This is because there are so many must have games that are platform exclusives. This means that the real war between Microsoft and Sony will increasingly be fought between Xbox Live and Playstation Home. So expect both companies to put a lot of effort into these online platforms. A big tactic this generation has been to stratify each console into a product range and to bundle games with consoles to give higher perceived value (something that was overdone in the days of the Commodore Amiga and Atari ST). Expect this to be continued this year with top end versions of the 360 and PS3 featuring large hard drives and enticing bundles of AAA games. That is a very quick overview. It is impossibly to say who will do best out of the three. This generation of consoles is spectacularly good at making analyst’s predictions look stupid. One major change that has emerged is that Microsoft are now a player at the top table in the console industry. Just watching how they use this new found position will be fascinating.

interesting that u didn't mention Super Smash Bros Brawl or Mario Kart, both of which have the potential to claim the #1 best selling game of the year, for the Wii

and how can the bubble already be bursting when the wii is still sold out?

i get 3-4 calls DAILY from a Wii ad on craigslist for 350 from 2 weeks ago...the demand is crazy

u can try to make an argument that the Wii will stop selling out this year despite wii fit/ssbb/mariokart/etc and then we'll call u crazy, but to say the bubble is already bursting is just plain wrong

we can already prove the bubble isn't bursting when it's sold out...maybe change it to predicting the bubble will start bursting next week or anytime in the future, but u can't say it's bursting today when it's sold out today

Welcome to VGChartz, though since you use our (ioi's) numbers you must have been a lurker for a while.

Nintendo likes to upgrade hardware? Maybe for their handhelds....but I don't think there has ever been a hardware revision for one of their consoles. Certainly they have added peripherals, but their systems remain intact.

Also...Nintendo will release an HD Wii — called the Wii2 in 2011.

Fastrabbit09 said: interesting that u didn't mention Super Smash Bros Brawl or Mario Kart, both of which have the potential to claim the #1 best selling game of the year, for the Wii and how can the bubble already be bursting when the wii is still sold out? i get 3-4 calls DAILY from a Wii ad on craigslist for 350 from 2 weeks ago...the demand is crazy u can try to make an argument that the Wii will stop selling out this year despite wii fit/ssbb/mariokart/etc and then we'll call u crazy, but to say the bubble is already bursting is just plain wrong we can already prove the bubble isn't bursting when it's sold out...maybe change it to predicting the bubble will start bursting next week or anytime in the future, but u can't say it's bursting today when it's sold out today

Hi thanks for that reply. Interesting. What I said was "The Nintendo Wii could very well be a bubble that is already bursting. " This is not based on ebay prices or shop inventory. It is based on the buzz and hype going on amongst ordinary everyday people. Before Christmas everyone wanted a Wii and everyone was talking about it. Now they are talking about other things. Nintendo said that they moved the January production into December so stock will still be tight for a while as there is no new inventory till February. The Wii will then be a regular off the shelf item till the end of it's life.

Bruceongames said: Fastrabbit09 said: interesting that u didn't mention Super Smash Bros Brawl or Mario Kart, both of which have the potential to claim the #1 best selling game of the year, for the Wii and how can the bubble already be bursting when the wii is still sold out? i get 3-4 calls DAILY from a Wii ad on craigslist for 350 from 2 weeks ago...the demand is crazy u can try to make an argument that the Wii will stop selling out this year despite wii fit/ssbb/mariokart/etc and then we'll call u crazy, but to say the bubble is already bursting is just plain wrong we can already prove the bubble isn't bursting when it's sold out...maybe change it to predicting the bubble will start bursting next week or anytime in the future, but u can't say it's bursting today when it's sold out today   Hi thanks for that reply. Interesting. What I said was "The Nintendo Wii could very well be a bubble that is already bursting. " This is not based on ebay prices or shop inventory. It is based on the buzz and hype going on amongst ordinary everyday people. Before Christmas everyone wanted a Wii and everyone was talking about it. Now they are talking about other things. Nintendo said that they moved the January production into December so stock will still be tight for a while as there is no new inventory till February. The Wii will then be a regular off the shelf item till the end of it's life.

 Oh how you will hate us. 

they will still be producing consoles in January

they simply sped up the shipment process for December-made consoles

there will be more Wiis for sale in January

btw, i just now got another phone call for the Wii from that 2 week old craigslist ad. And I live in a big city where there are dozens posted every day, so people are still wanting a wii badly

not sure where u are getting ur 'buzz' from...care to share any sources?

super_etecoon said: Welcome to VGChartz, though since you use our (ioi's) numbers you must have been a lurker for a while. Nintendo likes to upgrade hardware? Maybe for their handhelds....but I don't think there has ever been a hardware revision for one of their consoles. Certainly they have added peripherals, but their systems remain intact. Also...Nintendo will release an HD Wii — called the Wii2 in 2011.

Thanks. VGChartz is a standard industry reference, so I have been here a few times before. In my blog article there is a link back to here. Wii2 in 2011 makes sense from a 5 year console cycle point of view. However the Wii is not really from this generation. It is from the last generation. It is just a souped up Gamecube with a gesture interface. And so falls a very long way behind the 360 and PS3 in capabilities. This will find it out well before 2011, especially the lack of HD graphics. So I think that Nintendo will introduce "Wii2" far sooner and continue with Wii1 as an entry level machine and for third world markets. This will give them a two model range, just as Sony have with the PS2 and PS3.

we can agree to disagree on the wii2 front

average consumers don't care about graphics or hd, and nintendo knows this

and we definitely disagree about the generations

i'm not sure why 'graphics' are the determinant of generation lines

the wii controller is more 'next-gen' imo than the better graphics...games are about playing and controlling the action...so controls are most important first and foremost

 in the future, all of the consoles will utilize motion controls, not the now-archaic gamepads

there is no NEED for the wii to update anytime soon for most consumers

more important than hd graphics would be a hard drive addition and wii demo downloads as well as a headset for online communications and removal of friend codes

 similiar to how ds needed to add better backlighting and sd-card ability rather than upgrading its resolution and power to match/exceed the psp

The average gamer doesn't care about graphics as much as gameplay. That's why the system with the best graphics has never won in any generation. PS2 had the weakest and yet totally murdered the more powerful GC and Xbox.

So in that respect, what has MS or Sony done with this new generation of machines to introduce new gameplay? Ummm... nothing. LittleBigPlanet may be the only notable exception. Otherwise it's all the same old stuff, been there, done that, yeah it's prettier - so what?

The Wii now only brings something new to existing games, but brings in entirely new experiences like Wii Sports/WiiFit. I don't think they'll feel any pressure to have to upgrade. However MS and Sony may if they hope to expand beyond just core gamers.

RolStoppable said: Bruceongames said: That is a very quick overview. It is impossibly to say who will do best out of the three. This generation of consoles is spectacularly good at making analyst’s predictions look stupid. One major change that has emerged is that Microsoft are now a player at the top table in the console industry. Just watching how they use this new found position will be fascinating. Hardware sales? Nintendo. Software sales? Nintendo. Marketshare? Nintendo. Profits? Nintendo.  That actually isn't hard to predict, let alone impossible. Besides that, you are making a lot of mistakes in your analysis (Wii is a fad, SSBB and Mario Kart don't seem to exist, HD is important). But maybe that's the reason how you came to the conclusion that it is hard to predict who will do best out of the three. Oh, and welcome to VGChartz.

Thanks for the welcome. I am not a fanboy for any manufacturer. I doubt your predictions for 2008 because of GTA IV, MGS4, Halo Wars, Ninja Gaiden II, Too Human, Fable 2, Killzone 2, LittleBigPlanet, etc. There are just too many AAA must have, mega selling titles coming out on 360 and PS3. Also Wii has been bought mainly by casual gamers and will have a low attach rate compared with the more hardcore owners of 360s and PS3s who buy far more games. However anything can and will happen in this generation, so you may well end up being right!!