Welcome to the forum Bruce, its always nice to have another viewpoint here and don't let the fact that folks jump right into debate deter you. We might be a feisty bunch but we try to keep it civil =)

On that note, I do feel I have to echo the sentiment expressed by others. But first let me say I definitely appreciate the market position of MS and Sony and I have actually entered predictions in the prediction league on this site that both will increase hardware sales for 2008. They both have strong brands with appeal to the core gamer and their games reflect that with brands that are equally strong and in some cases stronger.

Unfortunately I think much of the "shock" people experience from the success of the Wii is from underestimating the casual market, which I feel you have done, and I will explain why and how. People identify the video game market with the Halo, GTA, and MGS4 style of games and so traditionally when they look at a list of games those are going to stand out and be the big titles. I believe the disconnect comes when they try to apply this same formula onto the Wii and attempt to quantify or predict its success based on that formula which I believe you have done here as most analysts, columnists, and enthusiasts have done before you.

Ironically the path Nintendo has chosen for its Console and Portable hardware strategy is to remove emphasis on niche core gaming and return emphasis to a "Games are for everyone" type of approach. A short time ago this type of strategy was thought foolhardy as the mainstream looked down on games for the most part. But the irony is that this strategy that got them to where they are is diametrically opposed to the types of paradigms people use to define and explain it. So really there is no mystery in the continued underestimation of the Wii and the reasons behind it.

Whether people like it, love it, hate it, or could care less about it, the Wii is changing the way the mainstream views video games and in doing so they are changing the market landscape. As the pioneers of this new market landscape they are of course best equipped to deal with it and I think not only are rival companies ill-prepared, but so to are reviewers, journalists, developers, and clearly analysts as well.

So the question I would pose is this: How many expectations must Nintendo, the DS, and the Wii shatter before "the industry" starts recognizing this shift?

I don't believe Nintendo is preparing to swallow the industry or that it will become the unstoppable juggernaut it once was. But when a console ramps up its production higher than any console ever has and continues to sell out in most markets for more than a year past launch and continues to do so to this day....when a handheld brings moms and grandmas, and dads and grandpas into the game shop...when a console gets your aunt, uncle, or your wife interested in gaming....well I would hope most people would take pause and realize that this type of thing is something more than just a simple passing fad. That there is deep and genuine consumer interest and that maybe...just maybe...the GTA, Halo, and MGS style games aren't going to be the deciding factors they once were.

This of course opens a whole other debate about what becomes of the old paradigm and its landmarks, but I will leave that for another day.

Thanks for the welcome.

I agree with you 100% as many articles on my blog attest. Here is the most recent:

http://www.bruceongames.com/2007/11/28/wii-mania/

Wii mania

For the last two weeks the PS3 has outsold the Wii in Japan. Now a lot of this is down to Sony introducing a cheaper version of the PS3. But the biggest factor must be stock availability of the Wii. Nintendo just cannot make enough to keep up with worldwide demand. And with Super Mario Galaxy just out and being proclaimed by many as the best game ever that demand is just going to get worse.

The last production figure that Nintendo released was 1.8 million units a month but, confusingly, they say they are shipping an extra 3.5 million units worldwide for christmas. Which could make a total of 7.1 million units over November and December. And they will easily sell them all.

The situation in the UK is close to manic. A lady I know put her name on several shop waiting lists and was finally only allowed to buy one if she bought six games at the same time! There are website that tell you of stock availability, but as soon as they say a retailer has some that retailer’s website crashes under the demand. Amazon sold 1,400 units in just ten minutes and secondhand Wiis fetch increasingly higher premiums on Ebay.

These are amazing times and they are the consequence of Nintendo making gaming fun for all the family instead of the niche demographic that video gaming has traditionally catered for. The annoying thing is that the industry could have made this massive leap years ago. But lacked the will and ability to do so.

Of course this represents a fantastic opportunity for game developers. But they cannot produce the games that they produced before. The audience and it’s expectations are different now. I have posted this development guide before and it is very relevant:
1) Don’t do shovelware. You are just damaging your brand(s).
2) Write Wii specific titles. Don’t port. You have to respect the interface difference.
3) Understand that most Wiis live in the lounge. And most other consoles live in the bedroom.
4) Polish, lots. Then polish some more.
5) Realise that you have to provide entertainment for the population at large. FPS titles are not a good idea.
6) You need to market completely differently. PR in women’s magazines will work a lot better than adverts in game magazines.
7) Talk to your wife/girlfriend. They understand the Wii better than you do.

It will be extremely interesting to see what happens after Christmas. Maybe the Wii is a seasonal gift item and sales will fall flat. Or maybe the release of system seller titles such as Wii Fit will keep the demand going.

Just to note. If you take Months owned as your metric instead of a just straight consoles owned vs games sold you find out the Wii actually has the highest attach rate of the 3.

By taking total months owned you account for the 360's year long lead as early adopters are going to have more games because they've had more time to play through them.

It also accounts for the PS3's less then stellar sales after launch until just recently, which also helps there attach rate, as the consoles has been in the average PS3 owners hands longer then the average Wii games hands.

The Wii's attach rate just looks weaker because more and more people are buying it at higher levels every few months. The people who just got the system haven't had time to get bored with Wii Bowling let alone other games they might of picked up at launch.

Those people however are buying games and plenty when they get bored with their inital purchases, which you can see if you use the months owned metric instead.

You actually find that all three are pretty close to each other as well with the wii slightly ahead. So if the Wii truley does have a lot of casuals that don't buy many games it also must have a group that buys games more ferverently then 360 owners.

In reality however i think the truth is that casuals actually buy many more games then people give them credit for... as this is a new market of casual, not your 360 casual fan who only buys sports games and the occasional racing game or the guy that only buys like 2-3 JRPGs a year and that's it. 

do u have a source for all of this? how do u look it up from a months owned perspective?