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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2008 at Bruceongames

gawalls said:
It's interesting that so many people are taking Nintendo's business decision when faced with a cheap or a HD compatible console question as a negative thing when they clearly realised that as the Wii is so different and given the Gamecubes weak stature - their best approach would be to offer it cheap to build a user base and when HD technology boom does take off and Wii is probably reduced then release a new Wii model with HD (and probably storage, maybe even tighter motion controls) for the same bargain price that does automatically upscale old Wii games. The Wii will probably then be the base model (probably named classic or something) and several different Wii's will be released - like Apple did with the Ipod and now Ipod is a brand on it's own.

Precisely.



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HappySqurriel said:

it isn't that complicated to "improve" your GPU to upscale or interpolate your textures, increase the output resolution, and perform high levels (16x) of Anisotropic Filtering and Antialaising when you are already taking advantage of a dramatically smaller process (45nm). In late 2008 or early 2009 Nintendo could (easily) release a Wii HD which (essentially) upscaled all Wii games to 1080i,720p or 1080p without any developer interaction which was still (dramatically) cheaper than the XBox 360 or PS3; it still wouldn't be as powerful but most people wouldn't know that anyways.


What utter rubbish. Except for the HD Wii in 2008/9. You swallowed a dictionary without looking at the meaning of the words.

Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

Bruceongames said:
gawalls said:
It's interesting that so many people are taking Nintendo's business decision when faced with a cheap or a HD compatible console question as a negative thing when they clearly realised that as the Wii is so different and given the Gamecubes weak stature - their best approach would be to offer it cheap to build a user base and when HD technology boom does take off and Wii is probably reduced then release a new Wii model with HD (and probably storage, maybe even tighter motion controls) for the same bargain price that does automatically upscale old Wii games. The Wii will probably then be the base model (probably named classic or something) and several different Wii's will be released - like Apple did with the Ipod and now Ipod is a brand on it's own.

Precisely.


I've considered this, and I don't think anyone will dispute Nintendo's next console will be HD.  But I don't see Nintendo being under any pressure whatsoever to HAVE to introduce a HD version within the next couple of years.  Unless a 4th competitor enters with what is basically a HD Wii onto which 3rd parties can easily port their existing PS3/360 library onto to, which is likely, then Nintendo would have to respond to that, eventually.

The only reason for Nintendo to release a HD Wii so early would be to crush Sony/MS as they couldn't respond without kissing any hope of ever recouping their 7th gen losses away.  Then the HD Wii could have both Wii and PS3/360 games.  BUT, that would be contrary to what they are trying to do. 



 

Bruceongames said:
HappySqurriel said:

it isn't that complicated to "improve" your GPU to upscale or interpolate your textures, increase the output resolution, and perform high levels (16x) of Anisotropic Filtering and Antialaising when you are already taking advantage of a dramatically smaller process (45nm). In late 2008 or early 2009 Nintendo could (easily) release a Wii HD which (essentially) upscaled all Wii games to 1080i,720p or 1080p without any developer interaction which was still (dramatically) cheaper than the XBox 360 or PS3; it still wouldn't be as powerful but most people wouldn't know that anyways.


 

What utter rubbish. Except for the HD Wii in 2008/9. You swallowed a dictionary without looking at the meaning of the words.

 

If it is "rubbish" please explain what is incorrect about it to me?

The Wii's GPU is based off of the Flipper and one of the most important and impressive features of the flipper was that it did texture decompression in hardware; in the process of decompressing the image you can apply a subdivision filter (which is just a matrix calculation based on the surrounding pixels) that will end up reducing the blockiness of the texture while still maintaining most of its detail.

From what we understand about the Wii its resolution is ALREADY HANDLED by the operating system being that you set whether the output is 480i or 480p and the aspect ratio in the operating system and it is taken advantage of in games; it is also likely that Anisotropic Filtering and Antialiasing are also set as "hints" to the hardware from the game. In this case it should be easy to increase the output resolution and over-ride the hints the game has sent to the hardware.

This type of thing has been done hundreds of times in software, is a major feature of every emulator, and is not unknown to happen in hardware ...

So what don't I understand?

The more you talk the more you demonstrate that you know nothing Bruce ...

 



Gamerace said:
@Bruceongames

There is a major flaw in your persistant thinking that once people become accustomed to HD they will demand it. And I have unequivical proof this is not so. The very PC your looking at.

Your an industry veteran. Who are the biggest PC gamers? What demographic? Women in their 40's. What do they play on the PC? Mainly flash games. Guess what? PC monitors are HD. Have been for years, if not forever. So if your theory holds water, why doesn't everyone DEMAND HD graphics from their PC games. Look at the best selling PC games. Not Crysis!!!! Not UT3!! Friggin WoW and Sims. Are these customers demanding to see HD on their HD monitors? No. Even the old Blizzard games like the original strategy Wow set, Starcraft and Diablo continue to sell decently. Dispite having very antiquated graphics.

Yes, most PC games come in with a big bang, top end graphics, drop off quick in sales, and then they come out with a new version with better graphics a few years later and repeat. Those game buyers are the PS3/360 gamers. Wow and Sims and flash gamers are the Wii gamers. Who do you think is more profittable? Who will last longer? Both have a future. HD graphics only appeal to a minority of people, although granted, a minority that spends a lot on games.

Comparing PC gaming to console gaming is like comparing it to handheld gaming. The "proper" HD titles coming this year. The price drop and gesture interface on the 360. The big system sellers like GTA, MGS and GT5. The playing field is changing rapidly. As people increasingly understand HD they will reject all that is not HD. Most PS2 owners are yet to upgrade. Wii is not an upgrade for them. This is 100 million people. Wii was largely a seasonal "must have" fashion bought by non gamers. Too many factors are coming together at the same time for the success of Wii to continue into Q4 2009. (Give or take 12 months). If you look at my blog you will see that it is very supportive of Nintendo for getting many things right. And very scathing of Sony for getting many things wrong. In my predictions I take a moderate and balanced view of where trends will take us. Fanboys have taken this completely out of context where they feel that it slights "their" beloved system.

Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

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I dont think it'll be next couple of years - they will only do it if and when HD is an everyday fitting in the majority of peoples homes but the way things are going with Wii sales TV manufacturers will bring our new TV's that are especially built to maximizee the Wii and squeeze every ounce out of it before Wii releases a now model.

Hell 08 may even see the first "specific Wii LCD TV" being released by samsung or somebody



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

HappySqurriel said:
Bruceongames said:
HappySqurriel said:

it isn't that complicated to "improve" your GPU to upscale or interpolate your textures, increase the output resolution, and perform high levels (16x) of Anisotropic Filtering and Antialaising when you are already taking advantage of a dramatically smaller process (45nm). In late 2008 or early 2009 Nintendo could (easily) release a Wii HD which (essentially) upscaled all Wii games to 1080i,720p or 1080p without any developer interaction which was still (dramatically) cheaper than the XBox 360 or PS3; it still wouldn't be as powerful but most people wouldn't know that anyways.


 

What utter rubbish. Except for the HD Wii in 2008/9. You swallowed a dictionary without looking at the meaning of the words.

 

If it is "rubbish" please explain what is incorrect about it to me?

The Wii's GPU is based off of the Flipper and one of the most important and impressive features of the flipper was that it did texture decompression in hardware; in the process of decompressing the image you can apply a subdivision filter (which is just a matrix calculation based on the surrounding pixels) that will end up reducing the blockiness of the texture while still maintaining most of its detail.

From what we understand about the Wii its resolution is ALREADY HANDLED by the operating system being that you set whether the output is 480i or 480p and the aspect ratio in the operating system and it is taken advantage of in games; it is also likely that Anisotropic Filtering and Antialiasing are also set as "hints" to the hardware from the game. In this case it should be easy to increase the output resolution and over-ride the hints the game has sent to the hardware.

This type of thing has been done hundreds of times in software, is a major feature of every emulator, and is not unknown to happen in hardware ...

So what don't I understand?

The more you talk the more you demonstrate that you know nothing Bruce ...

 


So Wii games will suddenly convert themselves to 1080i HD. You know nothing. Really.

Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

gawalls said:
I dont think it'll be next couple of years - they will only do it if and when HD is an everyday fitting in the majority of peoples homes but the way things are going with Wii sales TV manufacturers will bring our new TV's that are especially built to maximizee the Wii and squeeze every ounce out of it before Wii releases a now model.

Hell 08 may even see the first "specific Wii LCD TV" being released by samsung or somebody

Well I have consistently said Q4 2009 give or take 12 months. Maybe people should try reading properly.

Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

Bruceongames said:
HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology.

here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again

a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv

 b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty

c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much

hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE

people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Bruceongames said:
HappySqurriel said:
Bruceongames said:
HappySqurriel said:

it isn't that complicated to "improve" your GPU to upscale or interpolate your textures, increase the output resolution, and perform high levels (16x) of Anisotropic Filtering and Antialaising when you are already taking advantage of a dramatically smaller process (45nm). In late 2008 or early 2009 Nintendo could (easily) release a Wii HD which (essentially) upscaled all Wii games to 1080i,720p or 1080p without any developer interaction which was still (dramatically) cheaper than the XBox 360 or PS3; it still wouldn't be as powerful but most people wouldn't know that anyways.


 

What utter rubbish. Except for the HD Wii in 2008/9. You swallowed a dictionary without looking at the meaning of the words.

 

If it is "rubbish" please explain what is incorrect about it to me?

The Wii's GPU is based off of the Flipper and one of the most important and impressive features of the flipper was that it did texture decompression in hardware; in the process of decompressing the image you can apply a subdivision filter (which is just a matrix calculation based on the surrounding pixels) that will end up reducing the blockiness of the texture while still maintaining most of its detail.

From what we understand about the Wii its resolution is ALREADY HANDLED by the operating system being that you set whether the output is 480i or 480p and the aspect ratio in the operating system and it is taken advantage of in games; it is also likely that Anisotropic Filtering and Antialiasing are also set as "hints" to the hardware from the game. In this case it should be easy to increase the output resolution and over-ride the hints the game has sent to the hardware.

This type of thing has been done hundreds of times in software, is a major feature of every emulator, and is not unknown to happen in hardware ...

So what don't I understand?

The more you talk the more you demonstrate that you know nothing Bruce ...

 


 

So Wii games will suddenly convert themselves to 1080i HD. You know nothing. Really.

You obviously don't have any development experience ...

In all 3D graphics applications you use a software API (typically DirectX for XBox and Windows PC games, and OpenGL for everything else), through this API you set things like the output resolution and the projection matrix (which determines the aspect ratio aswell as other things). With systems like the XBox 360, Wii and PS3 the operating system (either by default or through calls to the operating system) controlls a lot of standard features like the resolution in order to standardize everything across games.

Much like a PC game, if Nintendo choose to increase the processing power to support higher resolutions it wouldn't take much to increase the output resolution of the game.