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Gnizmo on 08 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
gawalls said:
It's interesting that so many people are taking Nintendo's business decision when faced with a cheap or a HD compatible console question as a negative thing when they clearly realised that as the Wii is so different and given the Gamecubes weak stature - their best approach would be to offer it cheap to build a user base and when HD technology boom does take off and Wii is probably reduced then release a new Wii model with HD (and probably storage, maybe even tighter motion controls) for the same bargain price that does automatically upscale old Wii games. The Wii will probably then be the base model (probably named classic or something) and several different Wii's will be released - like Apple did with the Ipod and now Ipod is a brand on it's own.

Precisely.


  NB: The graphics card in the Wii is capable of outputting 720p. I can't remember if it could actually hit as high as 1080i, but I don't believe so. Nintendo specifically has that function locked out for whatever reason. They have decided to remove themselves from the HD world, and are unlikely to have a buisness model built around throwing themselves in.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

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Gamerace on 08 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Gamerace said:
@Bruceongames

There is a major flaw in your persistant thinking that once people become accustomed to HD they will demand it. And I have unequivical proof this is not so. The very PC your looking at.

Your an industry veteran. Who are the biggest PC gamers? What demographic? Women in their 40's. What do they play on the PC? Mainly flash games. Guess what? PC monitors are HD. Have been for years, if not forever. So if your theory holds water, why doesn't everyone DEMAND HD graphics from their PC games. Look at the best selling PC games. Not Crysis!!!! Not UT3!! Friggin WoW and Sims. Are these customers demanding to see HD on their HD monitors? No. Even the old Blizzard games like the original strategy Wow set, Starcraft and Diablo continue to sell decently. Dispite having very antiquated graphics.

Yes, most PC games come in with a big bang, top end graphics, drop off quick in sales, and then they come out with a new version with better graphics a few years later and repeat. Those game buyers are the PS3/360 gamers. Wow and Sims and flash gamers are the Wii gamers. Who do you think is more profittable? Who will last longer? Both have a future. HD graphics only appeal to a minority of people, although granted, a minority that spends a lot on games.

 

Comparing PC gaming to console gaming is like comparing it to handheld gaming. The "proper" HD titles coming this year. The price drop and gesture interface on the 360. The big system sellers like GTA, MGS and GT5. The playing field is changing rapidly. As people increasingly understand HD they will reject all that is not HD. Most PS2 owners are yet to upgrade. Wii is not an upgrade for them. This is 100 million people. Wii was largely a seasonal "must have" fashion bought by non gamers. Too many factors are coming together at the same time for the success of Wii to continue into Q4 2009. (Give or take 12 months). If you look at my blog you will see that it is very supportive of Nintendo for getting many things right. And very scathing of Sony for getting many things wrong. In my predictions I take a moderate and balanced view of where trends will take us. Fanboys have taken this completely out of context where they feel that it slights "their" beloved system.

Love how you totally and conveniently ignore the point.  The point is not PC vs console.  Look, consoles have only ever appealed to maybe 11% of the total consumer market.  For that 11% your belief is at least partly correct.  Nintendo is aiming at, and succeeding in attracting the other 89%.  I bring up PCs because vertually everyone has them.   The 11% buy the PC games with great graphics, the 89% don't buy games based on graphical power, they play/buy what's fun for them. 

How successful Nintendo will be at winning over the mass market remains to be seen, but all indications so far, and if the DS is any kind of predictor, is that they'll be quite successful.  But let's say success is limited.  Let's say they only get 10% of that market.   That's 9% of the total consumer market, plus all those 'gamers' with multiple consoles, let's say a quarter of the original 160m from last generation, that's about 11% of the total consumer market or on par with the absolute total PS3/360 could ever hope to achieve combined. 

Yep, Wii is doomed to longterm failure for sure.



 

gawalls on 08 January 2008

Perhaps they locked it so they could introuce a new model with it unlocked or offer 1080i

One thing Nintendo has proved is nobody can guess their intentions - give yourself somewhere to go in the future, who knows - I certainly dont!!



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

Gamerace on 08 January 2008
gawalls said:
Perhaps they locked it so they could introuce a new model with it unlocked or offer 1080i

One thing Nintendo has proved is nobody can guess their intentions - give yourself somewhere to go in the future, who knows - I certainly dont!!

My understanding is it's locked because 720p output would case a lot of framerate issues on the Wii.



 

HappySqurriel on 08 January 2008
gawalls said:
Perhaps they locked it so they could introuce a new model with it unlocked or offer 1080i

One thing Nintendo has proved is nobody can guess their intentions - give yourself somewhere to go in the future, who knows - I certainly dont!!

I agree that it is impossible to know what Nintendo's intentions are, and I'm not sure they would bother approaching the Wii HD as I described it ...

My main thought was that Nintendo has a lot of options to deal with falling sales if they actually start seeing lower sales; a $200 console with 2 Wiimotes, 2 Nunchucks, Wii Sports and a first party game would be very attractive to a lot of people and Nintendo would probably still break even or turn a proft off of it.



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Gnizmo on 08 January 2008
gawalls said:
Perhaps they locked it so they could introuce a new model with it unlocked or offer 1080i

One thing Nintendo has proved is nobody can guess their intentions - give yourself somewhere to go in the future, who knows - I certainly dont!!

 I would bet the problem could be solved through a patch. There would be no reason for a new set of hardware to output in HD.

 

My understanding is it's locked because 720p output would case a lot of framerate issues on the Wii.

Has Nintendo ever officially addressed the issue? I have only ever seen it mentioned in an interview with the video card manufacturer. 



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Kasz216 on 08 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Sqrl said:
Bruceongames said:

Wii mania

For the last two weeks the PS3 has outsold the Wii in Japan. Now a lot of this is down to Sony introducing a cheaper version of the PS3. But the biggest factor must be stock availability of the Wii. Nintendo just cannot make enough to keep up with worldwide demand. And with Super Mario Galaxy just out and being proclaimed by many as the best game ever that demand is just going to get worse.

The last production figure that Nintendo released was 1.8 million units a month but, confusingly, they say they are shipping an extra 3.5 million units worldwide for christmas. Which could make a total of 7.1 million units over November and December. And they will easily sell them all.

The situation in the UK is close to manic. A lady I know put her name on several shop waiting lists and was finally only allowed to buy one if she bought six games at the same time! There are website that tell you of stock availability, but as soon as they say a retailer has some that retailer’s website crashes under the demand. Amazon sold 1,400 units in just ten minutes and secondhand Wiis fetch increasingly higher premiums on Ebay.

These are amazing times and they are the consequence of Nintendo making gaming fun for all the family instead of the niche demographic that video gaming has traditionally catered for. The annoying thing is that the industry could have made this massive leap years ago. But lacked the will and ability to do so.

Of course this represents a fantastic opportunity for game developers. But they cannot produce the games that they produced before. The audience and it’s expectations are different now. I have posted this development guide before and it is very relevant:
1) Don’t do shovelware. You are just damaging your brand(s).
2) Write Wii specific titles. Don’t port. You have to respect the interface difference.
3) Understand that most Wiis live in the lounge. And most other consoles live in the bedroom.
4) Polish, lots. Then polish some more.
5) Realise that you have to provide entertainment for the population at large. FPS titles are not a good idea.
6) You need to market completely differently. PR in women’s magazines will work a lot better than adverts in game magazines.
7) Talk to your wife/girlfriend. They understand the Wii better than you do.

It will be extremely interesting to see what happens after Christmas. Maybe the Wii is a seasonal gift item and sales will fall flat. Or maybe the release of system seller titles such as Wii Fit will keep the demand going.

 


I agree with this article for the most part, but it does raise some questions when referenced with your most recent article you posted in the OP. Most notably you seem to agree that this craze isn't going away any time soon and since I don't have any indication that you think the 360 or the PS3 will suddenly jump to Wii level sales I am going to go out on a limb and assume you were attempting to write the article in a way that wouldn't immediately reject or repulse anti-Wii readers from finishing it. If that is the case I can definitely understand why you would do it, you are afterall attempting to create a readership, yes?

 

I write to provoke thought not to create a fanboy pavlovian reaction. The audience for Bruceongames are industry professionals.

Wii is an amazing creation of Nintendo and has a fantastic but short future ahead of it. Imagine if someone brought out a console that only displayed in black and white because that is what televisions used to be. This is the situation Wii will be in by Q4 2009. Nintendo are not stupid, they know this, so new product announcements are inevitable.

 


 Isn't that like the gameboy... which was black and green, yet trounced it's MANY colored competitors?



Bruceongames on 08 January 2008
Fastrabbit09 said:
Bruceongames said:
HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology.

here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again

a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv

 b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty

c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much

hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE

people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think


And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead.

Incisive and erudite blog by game industry professional.

http://www.bruceongames.com/

 

HappySqurriel on 08 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Fastrabbit09 said:
Bruceongames said:
HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology.

here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again

a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv

 b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty

c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much

hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE

people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think


 

And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead.

Take a moment and consider one potential outcome 2 or 3 years from now ...

Suppose that the Wii continues to sell as well (or better due to supply) in 2008 as it did in 2007 while the PS3 and XBox 360 continue at their same rate (mainly because they're so expensive). For most of 2008 third party publishers will continue to increase development of Wii games, and are likely to begin development of larger and more impressive Wii games for 2009.

In 2009 due to the high volume, quantity and quality of Wii games (as well as the lower price of the system) do you really expect consumers to jump onto the XBox 360/PS3 bandwagon?

The longer the Wii dominates the more third parties will be focusing on the Wii and the more difficult it will be to steal the Wii's momentium; over the next 12 to 24 months most PS2 and PSP development teams will begin projects on a current generation platform due to shrinking software sales on those platforms, if/when the Wii gets the lion's share of these development resources it will be practically impossible for the XBox 360 or PS3 to stage a comeback.



Kasz216 on 08 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Fastrabbit09 said:
Bruceongames said:
HDTV puts about four times the number of pixels on the screen. When consumers see this it is such a huge leap in performance that they will want it. At the moment there isn't much true HDTV content so people are generally unaware of the capabilities. But this situation is changing every day as more HDTV is broadcast and more people get HD DVD or Blu-Ray players. Games thus far on the HD consoles have come nowhere near delivering the full HDTV experience. Over 2008 this will gradually change. When it does the results will blow you away. Once people routinely watch broadcast HD television and watch HD videos they will not want to go back to inferior quality. The same will apply to gaming. Once people are fully HD literate they will not want to go back. So what is key to the life of the Wii is how long it takes for people to become fully HD aware (they are generally not there yet) and how long it takes the games industry to make the best of HD graphics. These will not be sudden things. They will ramp up gradually over the next couple of years. What is for absolute certainty is that by Q4 2009 the Wii will be seen by most as obsolete technology.

here you go, looking at it from YOUR perspective again

a) consumers in large aren't super excited about hdtv...25% of hdtv owners think they are watching hdtv when they are watching sd content; 56% don't even put any hd content on their hdtv

b) i have had hdtvs for 5 years now and will pretty much only watch tv on HD channels; i am an hd fanatic; yet, i am JUST FINE with 480p dvds and 480p wii games...and i'm an hd snob; your average consumer will care even less than i do...consumers want to play games that are fun, not games that look pretty

c) my sis-in-law, wife, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, etc etc will NOT care about ps3/360...they would at most watch me for 5 mins to be in awe of the graphics and then get bored; and they would NEVER pick up the controller and play it...however, they will play the wii and many even have gone out and BOUGHT the wii because they like it so much

hdtv isn't as important as YOU personally think and in MANY peoples' minds, the 360/ps3 are using outdated technology...99% of the games on those systems could be made on ps2/xbox and be the same besides the updated graphics...their CONTROLLERS are OBSOLETE

people don't care about graphic/sound quality as much as many people think


 

And you are looking at it from YOUR perspective. Even worse you are looking at how things are today. I am looking 2 to 3 years ahead.

Got any research data on that?

I mean according to the Nielson research group, 65% of Wii's are already hooked up to HD-TVs. What percentage of Wii's have to be hooked up to HDTVs before this becomes a problem for them?

Which by the way is nearly equal to the Xbox 360 at 66%. The PS3's at about 76%, likely due to the thing being so expensive it's likely the person buying it is going to have an HD tv.

Your future is really happening already.  Except the Wii's steam isn't dying off.