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Gamerace on 08 January 2008
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Bruceongames said:
Gamerace said:
@Bruceongames

There is a major flaw in your persistant thinking that once people become accustomed to HD they will demand it. And I have unequivical proof this is not so. The very PC your looking at.

Your an industry veteran. Who are the biggest PC gamers? What demographic? Women in their 40's. What do they play on the PC? Mainly flash games. Guess what? PC monitors are HD. Have been for years, if not forever. So if your theory holds water, why doesn't everyone DEMAND HD graphics from their PC games. Look at the best selling PC games. Not Crysis!!!! Not UT3!! Friggin WoW and Sims. Are these customers demanding to see HD on their HD monitors? No. Even the old Blizzard games like the original strategy Wow set, Starcraft and Diablo continue to sell decently. Dispite having very antiquated graphics.

Yes, most PC games come in with a big bang, top end graphics, drop off quick in sales, and then they come out with a new version with better graphics a few years later and repeat. Those game buyers are the PS3/360 gamers. Wow and Sims and flash gamers are the Wii gamers. Who do you think is more profittable? Who will last longer? Both have a future. HD graphics only appeal to a minority of people, although granted, a minority that spends a lot on games.

 

Comparing PC gaming to console gaming is like comparing it to handheld gaming. The "proper" HD titles coming this year. The price drop and gesture interface on the 360. The big system sellers like GTA, MGS and GT5. The playing field is changing rapidly. As people increasingly understand HD they will reject all that is not HD. Most PS2 owners are yet to upgrade. Wii is not an upgrade for them. This is 100 million people. Wii was largely a seasonal "must have" fashion bought by non gamers. Too many factors are coming together at the same time for the success of Wii to continue into Q4 2009. (Give or take 12 months). If you look at my blog you will see that it is very supportive of Nintendo for getting many things right. And very scathing of Sony for getting many things wrong. In my predictions I take a moderate and balanced view of where trends will take us. Fanboys have taken this completely out of context where they feel that it slights "their" beloved system.

Love how you totally and conveniently ignore the point.  The point is not PC vs console.  Look, consoles have only ever appealed to maybe 11% of the total consumer market.  For that 11% your belief is at least partly correct.  Nintendo is aiming at, and succeeding in attracting the other 89%.  I bring up PCs because vertually everyone has them.   The 11% buy the PC games with great graphics, the 89% don't buy games based on graphical power, they play/buy what's fun for them. 

How successful Nintendo will be at winning over the mass market remains to be seen, but all indications so far, and if the DS is any kind of predictor, is that they'll be quite successful.  But let's say success is limited.  Let's say they only get 10% of that market.   That's 9% of the total consumer market, plus all those 'gamers' with multiple consoles, let's say a quarter of the original 160m from last generation, that's about 11% of the total consumer market or on par with the absolute total PS3/360 could ever hope to achieve combined. 

Yep, Wii is doomed to longterm failure for sure.