Bruce Bruce Bruce...
you obviously have pre-conceived notions of what SHOULD happen.
IF Sony MS and Nintendo gone the "more power/better graphics" route - and sony had come out at their Current pricing- Sony would be Wiping the floor with them
MS and Sony chose that Route. and they are Selling Comparable to each other -sony gaining VERY slowly on MS - due to the year head start MS had.
Nintendo Delibrately chose NOT to do HD -they could have & the System would have been ~299. They Delibrately Chose not to have a HDD (imo they DO need one) Delibrately Chose to change the controllers...
and the people Buying the console...are snapping it up, for 14 months now i have Seen wii's available for purchase in the stores Three times... i go into best buy, target, toysrus's Several times a month and Three times- THREE- in 14 months i have seen the Wii on the shelves.
the 360- except for release- always on shelves
ps3 -except for the week post release- always on shelves
Lack of 3rd party games... EVERY SINGLE MAJOR 3rd party Developer in Japan- except for the few that the 360 had developing for- was Banking on the PS3..
Every. Single. One.
then came E3 2006 where the line to play the wii was like 4-6HOURS long,,,the line for the ps3- non existant.
WHY? because Nintendo did something Different which has struck a Cord with the people Playing it, it is just More Fun using the wiimote/controller.
Now 3rd party Devs are shifting teams to the Wii Development cycle- Capcom has Several major titles come to the Wii -
a Few titles that were for the PS3 have been cancelled and xferred to the Wii- Monster Hunter 3 the most notable of the bunch.
3rd parties were caught Flat Footed- all their analysts all their predictions said PS3 = winner
ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ANALYST(VERY few Exceptions) for the gaming industry has been WRONG so far by a HUGE amount on how this generation is going. most analysts were saying the wii would get AT MOST GC numbers...by 2012. it is 2008 and the Wii almost Blown by that number.
the only thing that prevented the Wii from being ~25 million last year was Production.
Who in their right mind - from analyzing past data would predict that 1.8 MILLION units a month would not be enough to satisfy demand up thru christmas this past year
examples of Analysts Blowing it:
June 2006- Jason Anderson IDG
or 2007, IDG predicts Microsoft dominance for the next two years in the North American next-gen game hardware market, at least in terms of installed base. The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.
To DATE the Wii has Surpassed his 2008 prediction by over a Million units...with 12 months to go...over 50% to low
he was Damn close with the 360 (sub 5%)
he was WAY off on the PS3 (over 50% too high)
for mr anderson the Wii and the PS3 are pretty much flip flopped their positions on Results
August 2006 Yankee Group-
Though the report, titled 'Can Sony Hold Off Microsoft as Video Game Consoles Emerge as a Platform for Digital Distribution?', concedes Microsoft's early jump on the competition with its Xbox 360, it predicts that by 2011, the console will be overtaken by the PlayStation 3 in the market. The firm predicts that, by this time, the PlayStation 3 will own 44 percent of console sales in North America, having sold approximately 30 million units, and narrowly beating Microsoft's 40 percent and 27 million units sold.
Interestingly, despite the fervor surrounding the impending launch of the Wii console from Nintendo, the analyst firm only anticipates Nintendo being able to sell slightly more than 11 million units between its launch in the fourth quarter this year and 2011, at which time it expects the Kyoto-based company to own just 16 percent of the North American console market.
The wii will pass their 2011 Analysis in 2008 3 FULL YEARS ahead of schedule
they Might be right on when the ps3 passes the 360 though..Current sales put it around 2011..so they are Right there.
2005-Piper jaffray
Piper Jaffray says by 2008, PlayStation 3 will have grabbed 45-50% of the hardware market, with Xbox 360 barely trailing at 35-40% and Nintendo dropping to a minority share of 15%. In fact, they predict Revolution adoption to move at an almost snail's pace, with only half a million units next year, two in 2007 and three in 2008.
boy was HE wrong...
march 2006- In-Stat
Sony will continue its domination of the video console market through 2010, though its lead will likely shrink due to stronger competition from Microsoft and Nintendo, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says.
well so far they're Really wrong on the wii (revolution) & ps3 ...360 is 8%off
those are a few that i grabbed just REALLY fast from Google.
i know there is a List Somewhere- couldn't find it listing Every Major Gaming Analyst/fir's prediction and the VAST majority said the ps3 would be #1 and the Wii a Distant 3rd..
