Gnizmo on 08 January 2008
The Wii has older technology so it will show it's age sooner. To the point where it can't compete. Nintendo know this so will have an HD replacement available sooner than Microsoft or Sony need to create replacements. (Though I think there is a possibility of Microsoft going early again to have a two model range and to put pressure on Sony). At the point that Nintendo launch their new model I do not have the faintest idea who will be ahead. What I do know is that there are around 100 million loyal Playstation owners waiting to upgrade.
Even if it were true that the Wii will age faster, and I disagree on that point, it is extremely unlikely that Nintendo will jump the gun before the other two systems. Nintendo has never been the first on the market in a console generation. Not once. It is extremely unlikely that they are going to abandon their fastest selling system so quickly. It is the first Nintendo made console that will outsell the previous version, and they supported all of those for at least 5 years.
The 10 year life-cycle of these new consoles will not be without competition from the same company. The PS2 is still fulfilling its ten year life cycle you might notice. The PS1 had a similar phase where it over lapped with the PS2. Why everyone thinks Sony's PR line means that there won't be a PS4 until 2016 is really beyond me. Sony has heavily implied that the PS3 will be conitued on after the PS4 is released and that is where it will get its 10 year life span.
And finally we come to the famous stand by of the loyal fanbase. That has never, and likely will never exist in console gaming. If fans were loyal we would all be playing Atari right now. Nintendo showed just how loyal fans were when it became the top selling system, and then Sony showed it again by supplanting Nintendo. Brandname loyalty simply does not exist in this market. People follow the games.
