2005 was a totally difference scenario than what M$ is currently facing... M$ was fighting a losing battle against Sony last gen, and they made a decision to leap into the next gen early in order to effectively get the jump on then market leader Sony and their PS3, which wasn't due for release until the following year at the earliest.  They also made a conscious decision to essentially pull the plug on the original Xbox that same year and move all resources to the 360 in the process, hoping that Xbox owners would upgrade to the 360.  That was all a huge gamble for them, and it paid off (minus the faulty launch hardware debacle, of course), but they also owe a great deal of success to Sony's miscalculations of releasing the PS3 at such a high price point, and with very few AAA games for its first year on the market.

This time around they are in a far better position than they were at the end of the last generation... they've sold more than double the 360s as they did Xboxs worldwide, they are leading Sony in the North American market by a comfortable margin and are neck and neck with them in the EU and elsewhere, and they still have a shit ton of AAA games slated for release for their current console over the next year, unlike the original Xbox whose AAA software lineup had essentially ran dry by the time the second half of 2005 rolled around.  There's absolutely no reason for them to rush a next-gen console out this time around, especially when their biggest competitor Sony is struggling to keep up with them in hardware sales, and their next console isn't scheduled for release for at least a couple more years at the minimum.

ok but this doesn't change the fact that they sold out the first shipment of the 360 even with a first showing only in march of the same year so this would really not be the problem. if they show it too early whatever they plan other companies could to easily react to that.

they really don't have to show a console one or even more years before release. we live in 2011 the world is fast as hell people don't need 5 years anymore to think about if they can walk over the street or wait till the next car.

and if you don't know i don't believe they will release the conole next year i only say that i would be early enough to show the console this march like they did 2005. so earlier they show the next console so earlier everyone will think the 360 is a sinking ship and and could cost 360 sales..

One of the only problems I see with them launching in 2012 is with GTAV. With Max Payne coming out this spring I don't see GTA coming out then, so I'm seeing it as a Holiday 2012 or Spring 2013 launch. Now with the graphics we saw in the trailer I would say they are nice but definitely not "720" nice, so that leads me to believe its a PS3/360 (slash maybe Wii U) game. I don't see Microsoft launching the NextBox right as last gen gets a major selling franchise that would make people want to stick with their 360.

Finally... somebody who gets it!

What the fuck does a 3rd party multiplatform game have to do with the launch of a new console????!! 

1) IT WILL BE BACKWARDS COMPATIBLE AS THIS TIME THERE IS LIKELY NO TECHNOLOGY CONFLICTS.

2) GTA5 at this point in the gen is not a system seller. BTW, remember when Mario Kart and Wii outsold GTA4 combined PS360, lol.

I can sort of see the arguement some have with Halo4. Considering its a very large 1st party title... however, even Nintendo launched a new console with a GC Zelda game.... and it was very successful on both sides of the street.... and Zelda for Nintendo is easily just as big as Halo is for MS.

I dont understand why a company would release another console when the one on the market has always sold better than the year before. Its just stupid to be honest.

What they going to do, steal sales from themselves and make less money whilst they are at it?

Just silly when you think about it. Who honestly is waiting for a new console to come out? I cant name anyone to be honest, well apart from some super freak in my class who is obsessed with playstation and has said for over a year that the new one is about to release. >_>

Same reason there is a super duper triple burger or $800 graphics card that no one buys, it captures the upper segment of the market and commoditizes the middle segment.

I agree, and I still think we will see Halo 4 as a nextbox launch title next year, with Kinect compatibility still. I would also suggest that the first generation of new gen games will actually lack features, as we saw at the start of this gen. I would also think think that the new Fable game has been pushed back for a proper Fable IV

One would assume that Sony would also be providing some ideas of what their next console will be made of so that devs can make their engines with that in mind to help avoid the situation this gen where despite the PS3's extra power, games have looked worse throughout, particularily at launch, as the Xbox 360 just worked better with the engines

1.)  Ok yeah it probably will be backwards compatible, but why would someone drop $300-400 just to play a game they could already play on the 360 they already have.  I'm not talking about early adopters here, they are going to buy no matter what.  I'm talking about a more mass market crowd.  If they see a commercial for the 720 followed by a commercial for GTAV that says "get it now on 360 and PS3" I don't see them going for the 720.  Also you won't get any people bailing on the Sony ship either.  The 360 this gen definitely stole some PS2 users who wanted to get into the next-gen due to its head start launch and good software.  No-one is going to head over to the other side if they can get the biggest game of the year on their own last gen hardware.

2.) But thats the thing, I'm not saying it's a system seller.  I'm not saying that GTAV is going to PUSH 360 sales, I'm saying its going to DETER 720 sales.  Big difference.

If the 720 does launch holiday 2012 what could their launch lineup look like?

Gears of War - Probably not, it will have only been 1 year since Gears 3, and they would probably need more than a year to make a game for new hardware

Next Halo - Probably not, 4 hasn't even released yet on 360 (This game also falls under the GTAV deterrent category)

Next CoD - Duh of course it will, but it will probably be on 360 also, which also adds the deterrent category

I really don't have that much knowledge about other big 360 franchises so I'm not going to even try, if someone has some insight into Fable, Forza, etc. feel free to add

Of course, this is entirely speculation on my part so I can concede that you may be entirely correct.  This is just how I see it though.