Devs have had target boxes which are really early dev kits for awhile now. These dev kits are just more finalized. Additionally, reread my post above regarding 1st year software.

3rd parties will have a lot of cross platform stuff ready with obvious upgrades for the new consoles and MS themselves will have a few unique titles to try and pursued users to upgrade... including a new Kinect.

With the hardware being essentially done before this year's over AND software already being built, especially in the far more important area of engines which have been out already from almost all major players, its far more likely we'll see a 2012 release than you think.

I am by far not a MS fanboy, but its just too obvious that its coming early. Additionally, you have to include WiiU in the topic of software. 3rd parties have had their dev kits for even longer... meaning 3rd parties have already been building 'next-gen' games and one of WiiU's goals was to make it an easy to port console so they don't fall into a trap again with no 3rd party support.

So to recap... hardware appears to be ready. Software should be more than plentiful from 3rd parties. We've seen plenty of proof suggesting many of MS studios and partners have ample time to be building a next-gen title. (gears4 anyone?)It makes the most sense in terms of competition as it doesn't allow Nintendo a big lead off with no competition as well as jumping out ahead of Sony's PS4. Heck, there must be something pretty far along... remember at E3 there were tons of rumors MS was going to show off their next box then.

I don't know if I'd bet on a CES announcement... but I know we'll see it at E3 and I think its hihghly probable to release in 2012. To outright discount it is really the only lack of all rationality that exists in this thread.

most of us have felt for a long time that the nextbox would be coming for the 2012 holiday.

Sony is in a hard place , especially if '720' really launches next year with Wii U, but don't count them out yet.

The Wii U argument does not make your case... 3rd parties have had hardware kits longer because the Wii U is itself farther along in development than M$'s next console, and the hardware is pretty much finalized.  And just about every 3rd party "next-gen" game for the Wii U announced so far is also a current-gen game for 360/PS3, just slightly more optimized for the Wii U console, if not simply a straight port altogether.  The hardware for M$'s new console on the other hand is far from done, and probably won't be finalized until the latter half of 2012 at the absolute earliest.  Then of course they have to manufacture the units and get them ready for launch... this also takes months to do, and the last thing M$ wants is to have a launch plagued by faulty hardware like they did last time around with the 360.

Nintendo is not M$'s main competiton... nobody who already owns a 360 is going to buy a Wii U just to play games like COD or GTAV on it (assuming the Wii U actually GETS these games at or near launch in the first place), so there's no reason for M$ to needlessly rush the launch of their next system, possibly botching it with faulty hardware and having no compelling software, and giving Sony an opening in 2013 or early '14 to capitalize on their mistakes.

Also, the NextBox's launch won't be led by 3rd party current gen multiplat titles with ever so slightly better graphics (if not just straight up ports) like the Wii U's will be... they will be a clear step up in both the visuals and the programming, engines, and game AI they'll be using.  Nobody is going to drop $400 or more on a new system just for slightly better visuals in the next COD.  And M$ has already blown their load when it comes to exclusives... in the past year, we've had Fable 3, Forza 3, Gears 3, Halo Reach, and next year we're getting Halo 4 on 360 (NOT the "720"!)... all of these games required an absolute MINIMUM of 2 years dev time between sequels.  So do you really honestly expect them to have any games from their major exclusive series ready for a new console launch next year?

And to say that no one can discount a 2012 release if M$ waits until E3 to make an official announcement about the 360's successor... that is the biggest lack of rationality in this thread.

Xbox 720 will launch in holiday 2012.
It will have backwards compatibility with the 360 so the Halo 4 and new COD game will actually compliment its launch.

nice to know chunky

First target boxes, then dev kits. So it's pretty much confirmed now that the new XBox will be released in 2012. That sucks. I will buy one on launch though.

@ bolded

I am quite sure that MS intents to continuosly support the Xbox 360 for a long time. ie parallel support to the Next Box, similar to PS2 right now. If that was the case than compatibility is out of the question.

first of all, they are talking about dev kits but it's rumored there are whateverkits since a while now.

and if they would unveil the console only 5 month before release? do you know when they unveiled the 360? that was gdc 2005 in march so this could be the case this time as well.

That arguement makes no sense.

b/c has no impact on how long they continue to offer the 360 for sale as proven by numerous previous consoles... PS2 and PS1, DS and GBA, GBA and GB, etc...

b/c will be there as its expected in the industry and as long as there are no technical reasons why it can't be done, it will be.

360 wasn't fully b/c with xbox due to differences in cpu/gpu that made it too costly.

PS3 removed full b/c with PS2 due to costs in having to duplicate PS2 hardware in the console.

MS will offer the 360 at reduced prices in single sku offerings for as long as the consumer will buy it in a quantity that makes it profitable. NES was sold for 20 years in Japan for this reason. SNES, PS1, and PS2 were sold for over 10yrs because of this.

This gen all three companies sold a lot of hardware and as such will not drop their consoles quickly. But they have to be profitable for around $100 to remain on shelves for many years later. Wii and 360 will definitely be able to do that... well at least in NA for 360. I'm not so sure about PS3 though, however, that's a whole different topic with a lot of info to be drudged up.