that was largely in part do to a 200-400k drop to 500k 1 wk in Dec last yr. noy sure what sony was selling wk'ly in Dec. last yr before the drop, but it likely PS3 still likely would not have sold 15m fiscal 2010 anyway.

I don't think it will happen till the end of next year and only assuming next year's xbox pricecut has a relatively insignificant effect on sales.

I think the ps3 will ship at the most 500k more during the holidays.

Microsoft will probably cut the price quarter 1 and that quarter the gap will grow again in favor of the 360 by a couple hundred thousand

Quarter 2 the ps3 might gain 100-200k nothing too much since none of the consoles will sell well over the summer.

Quarter 3 the ps3 gains around 1mil and gap is under 1mil.

Quarter 4 the ps3 outsells the 360 because I think the wii u will hurt 360 sales in America a lot over the holidays. People who want the "coolest" new gadget will be getting a wii u rather than xbox360+kinect. 

No, they will both sell about the same number of units keeping the 2m spread in shipped. Either that or someone will try and flood the channel.

its possible but unlikely. if ps3 is to overtake then it will happen early next year.

There is a slim chance of it happening. My main reasons for that are:

- The new price cut for the PS3 will do very well during the holidays in all regions, while MS seems to be sticking to their guns and are not going to lower the 360's price. It's already Nov and at this point a price cut would seem like a move made in panic, something I don't think MS wants to convey. Of course, they also already have a $199 model.

- We have Uncharted 3 in Nov, which will help push PS3 for this month and for Black Friday in Americas. It will also help boost the console for Nov in EMEAA.

- Then we have FF13-2 in Japan for Dec. This actually has a custom designed console bundle for a very popular series, so the Japanese will eat up every one of those bundles, real quick.

- Sony also is releasing new colors for the PS3, which always boosts sales.

- And finally, I don't see Kinect having anywhere near as large of an impact as it did last year. We just had the release of two sequels to two of the larger sequels in the Kinect library. But, despite a larger install base and being released when holiday shopping is starting to ramp up, they are both down by quite a bit. Across Americas and EMEAA, for the first week, Dance Central 2 is down ~47K from the first game. And Kinect Sports 2 is down by a whopping ~201K.

After saying all this, however, I don't think the PS3 has enough in it to push shipments over 2 mil greater than the 360. I'm sure it will decrease the gap to ~1 mil, but not the whole 2.07 mil. I do think it has a very good chance at passing the 360 by the end of the fiscal year, though.

Really not a big deal anymore after so many years. The only thing keeping it close is the fact Sony still don't have that $199 PS3.