There is a slim chance of it happening. My main reasons for that are:
- The new price cut for the PS3 will do very well during the holidays in all regions, while MS seems to be sticking to their guns and are not going to lower the 360's price. It's already Nov and at this point a price cut would seem like a move made in panic, something I don't think MS wants to convey. Of course, they also already have a $199 model.
- We have Uncharted 3 in Nov, which will help push PS3 for this month and for Black Friday in Americas. It will also help boost the console for Nov in EMEAA.
- Then we have FF13-2 in Japan for Dec. This actually has a custom designed console bundle for a very popular series, so the Japanese will eat up every one of those bundles, real quick.
- Sony also is releasing new colors for the PS3, which always boosts sales.
- And finally, I don't see Kinect having anywhere near as large of an impact as it did last year. We just had the release of two sequels to two of the larger sequels in the Kinect library. But, despite a larger install base and being released when holiday shopping is starting to ramp up, they are both down by quite a bit. Across Americas and EMEAA, for the first week, Dance Central 2 is down ~47K from the first game. And Kinect Sports 2 is down by a whopping ~201K.
After saying all this, however, I don't think the PS3 has enough in it to push shipments over 2 mil greater than the 360. I'm sure it will decrease the gap to ~1 mil, but not the whole 2.07 mil. I do think it has a very good chance at passing the 360 by the end of the fiscal year, though.
