Never thought it could to be honest it has sold a way much more than I was expecting. Afer launch I wasn't expecting more than 40-60 million lifetime sales.

PS2 didn't suffer such a harsh downfall, and Wii doesn't have the benefit of the developing world. That's the only reason PS2 keeps on selling.

Wii isn't going to be launched in those countries. It's clear Nintendo want Wii to die down now so they can concentrate on Wii 2.

Seriously though look at the figures.

Wii is at 86 mill shipped and PS2 has surpassed 150 million and STILL hasn't ever shipped in a Q, less than 1.36, what the Wii has just shipped, surely that tells you something?

To be honest, I find it embarssing you think there is even a glimmer of hope. When all is said and done PS2 will likely be above 160 million, are you really telling me with the Wii winding down, and Wii 2 on the way, the Wii can double it's userbase???????

This is the low and high end I see Wii shipping over the years

FY 2012 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2012)
Low end - 10.5 million If Wii doesn't pick up as they expected, around 10 mill could be a reality, It seems they expect another 8 million plus holiday season, going by their 13 million projection. What with the Wii sort of already having a price cut last holiday with all the deals, and the price cuts to Kinect/360/PS3 this xmas .. no way will Wii be up or flat YoY.
Middle/likely - 12 million (Given they went from 18 to 17.5 to 15.01 last FY, I doubt they'll make their projection this year. They've probably been a bit more conservative with Wii projections this year due to all the missed targets last year, so I only expect them to fall short 1 mill give or take a few hundred k)
High end - 13.5 (If a price cut does wonders they could just surpass their 13 milion projection, or have they already factored this in?)


FY2013 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2013)
Low end - 7 million
Middle/likely - 8 million this is likely what the Wii will ship in 2012/2013
High end - 9.5 million If they hit their 13 mill target this year, it seems their YoY losses in units will be in the 5- 3 million unit range (20 mill > 15 mill > expected 13 but probably 12 mill) So 9.5 might actually be a stretch. Especially as Wii 2 launchs late in this year, 360 and PS3 will be throwing out something big to counter attack Wii 2, all of nintendos resources will be on Wii 2 and 3DS. I expect non holiday shipments to be sub 1 million through the year.

FY2014 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2014)
Low end - 4 million
Middle/likely - 5 million
High end - 7 million

Beyond
Low end - Dead, 2 mill
Middle/likely - 5 million
High end - 8 million

Lifetime/86 million and ...
Low end - 23 million / 109 million
Middle/likely - 30 million / 116 million
High end - 38 million / 122 million

I'm kind of lazy, can you do the total between all low end, and all high end. To showcase the result. 

More importantly I wanna hear from those who said that wii still had a chance to hit 50% market share

To be honest, it almost looked like it was going to hit that mark. Wasn't it at 49%? So I doubt those people were wrong to estimate that. 

iirc there was a thread when the wii was around 46-47% of marketshare and ps3 slim effect was going on and move/kinect hasn't even come out yet (I think). There were several who were saying wii would hit 50% or more. I personally always had a feeling it will enter the next gen first and will completely ruin those chances.

I'll try and find the thread..

The Wii/HD gap was 1.2 million ish at one point, and going in Wii's favour, so it was almost a dead cert 50% was going to happen. But then, shit happens.

I edited it in

Lifetime/86 million and ...
Low end - 23 million / 109 million
Middle/likely - 30 million / 116 million
High end - 38 million / 122 million

Thanks, I saw that. So pretty much a shoe in for beating ps1.