Seece said:
This is the low and high end I see Wii shipping over the years
FY 2012 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2012)
Low end - 10.5 million If Wii doesn't pick up as they expected, around 10 mill could be a reality, It seems they expect another 8 million plus holiday season, going by their 13 million projection. What with the Wii sort of already having a price cut last holiday with all the deals, and the price cuts to Kinect/360/PS3 this xmas .. no way will Wii be up or flat YoY.
Middle/likely - 12 million (Given they went from 18 to 17.5 to 15.01 last FY, I doubt they'll make their projection this year. They've probably been a bit more conservative with Wii projections this year due to all the missed targets last year, so I only expect them to fall short 1 mill give or take a few hundred k)
High end - 13.5 (If a price cut does wonders they could just surpass their 13 milion projection, or have they already factored this in?)
FY2013 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2013)
Low end - 7 million
Middle/likely - 8 million this is likely what the Wii will ship in 2012/2013
High end - 9.5 million If they hit their 13 mill target this year, it seems their YoY losses in units will be in the 5- 3 million unit range (20 mill > 15 mill > expected 13 but probably 12 mill) So 9.5 might actually be a stretch. Especially as Wii 2 launchs late in this year, 360 and PS3 will be throwing out something big to counter attack Wii 2, all of nintendos resources will be on Wii 2 and 3DS. I expect non holiday shipments to be sub 1 million through the year.
FY2014 (Apr 1st - March 31st 2014)
Low end - 4 million
Middle/likely - 5 million
High end - 7 million
Beyond
Low end - Dead, 2 mill
Middle/likely - 5 million
High end - 8 million
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I'm kind of lazy, can you do the total between all low end, and all high end. To showcase the result.
