http://www.vgchartz.com/article/83653/2011-year-on-year-sales-and-market-share-update-to-january-15th/

judging by that link it looks like wii started off like wii in 2009, But far below 2010, 2009 year> 2010 year
Though I still don't think that the wii will go up until nintendo starts relaseing those motion plus games they say they will bring out.

OK so new information this week.

First Nintendo lowered estimates for shipments through March 31st 2011 from 17.5M to 16M (had previously lowered from 18M to 17.5M).

Second adjustments occurred on the site and for the time period the OP poster is talking about in 2010 the Wii sold

18,563,777

Third weekly numbers came out for this week and Wii was down 37% YoY. 

The Wii is now 634,190 behind last years pace which ended at 18,563,777.

OP predicted Wii to sell 22.1M through December 24th 2011 (52 weeks starting December 26th 2010). If Wii stopped declining and acted exactly like 2010 the rest of the way the total would be 17,929,587.  So to hit the 22.1M the Wii needs to sell 4.2M more the remainder of the year compared to last year.  That is roughly an 87,000 weekly increase over last year when so far this year Wii is averaging a 158K weekly decrease compared to last year.

You gave the wrong dates...I said 2011 sales by my standards which IMO is by the ended date. So my prediction is for the week ending January 1st to the week ending December 31st. Yes that is 53 weeks but that is what my prediction is for...22.1 Million in those 53 weeks. 

What is your prediction for Wii sales for those 53 weeks? Your keeping a tab on mine to prove me wrong in the end so what is your prediction to see who is closer? I have a feeling you will play it safe and put a # not too high but not too low but thats your choice.

For those 53 weeks I am thinking the Wii will sell around 14M-15M.  Nintendo adjusted this FY down to 16M.  Wii is in decline as all consoles go through so another 1-2M less seems right. I am keeping a tab on this thread.  There were other prediction threads, but this one was started just for this one prediction.

Your prediction would be cheating...you have to give an actual # like my 22.1 Million. 14-15 Million doesn't count LOL.

Please pick an actual # for your prediction.

So far the Wii has sold 1.499 Million in 2011(4 weeks) That is 1K shy of 1.5 Million so... 20.6 Million left to go! 

If it makes you feel better. 

YoY Wii is trending down 30% that would put the Wii at 13M for the 52 week year.

Add an extra 600K for the last week of the year (Wii did 636K this year).

Add an extra million because of price drop last qtr of the year.

14.6M for the 53 week period

Do you mean for the 53 week period? If not you might want to add some sales.

Correct yes 14.6M for the 53 week period. My explanation says why.

You seriously think that the decline will stay at 30%? Really?

Wanna bet that Wii'll sell less than 15m without a price cut and 17m with one this year?

Yes.  Nintendo already cut the amount they expect to sell through March 31st down to 16M.  I cant imagine that the numbers will reverse. 

Why?

More competition.  Kinect is the hot piece of hardware and the more it gets tried the more it will hurt the Wii. Move will as well, but just a smaller impact.  Wii no longer has motion control advantage.  Wii dropped as much as it did this past year with more than 3/4s of the year as the only motion control based system.

At 85M consoles sold no piece of software will move any additional hardware of signifigance.

Smaller available customer base.  Again with the high success already less people to sell to.

All consoles will have price cut this year.  I also expect that when the Wii price cut happens 1 game will be removed from the bundle.  For Nintendo it is now time to maximize profits and the lower the price of the console the fewer titles bought so giving away an extra game really cuts into new software sales.