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Forums - Sales - *Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

Seece on 31 January 2011

Now? No.

They shipped around 4.90 mill this Jan-March Q last year if I believe, this year they forecast 2.3 mill, that's down over 2.6 million .. more than half.

In terms of shipments ...

Q4 2010 - 84.6
Q1 2011 - (2.3) = 86.9
Q2 2011 - 3.0 same period last year, so I expect around (2.0) = 88.9
Q3 2011 - 1.8 same period last year, so I expect around (1.4) = 90.3

So that means they need to ship 10.7 million in Q4, to reach 100 million units sold to consumer (assuming around 1 mill on shelves, transport ect)

8.7 to 10.7 ... that's a 2 mill rise over last xmas, whilst it's very doable with a price cut, I think it'll just miss and end up something like 99 - 99.5

105 is completely illogical and out of the question. It's quite obvious at this point the Wii is following the same sales pattern as a normal console. It's 360 and PS3 that are having the abnormal sales, so any more price cuts from Wii will only sustain, not dramatically raise sales.



 

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Squilliam on 31 January 2011
Seece said:

Now? No.

They shipped around 4.90 mill this Jan-March Q last year if I believe, this year they forecast 2.3 mill, that's down over 2.6 million .. more than half.

In terms of shipments ...

Q4 2010 - 84.6
Q1 2011 - (2.3) = 86.9
Q2 2011 - 3.0 same period last year, so I expect around (2.0) = 88.9
Q3 2011 - 1.8 same period last year, so I expect around (1.4) = 90.3

So that means they need to ship 10.7 million in Q4, to reach 100 million units sold to consumer (assuming around 1 mill on shelves, transport ect)

8.7 to 10.7 ... that's a 2 mill rise over last xmas, whilst it's very doable with a price cut, I think it'll just miss and end up something like 99 - 99.5

105 is completely illogical and out of the question. It's quite obvious at this point the Wii is following the same sales pattern as a normal console. It's 360 and PS3 that are having the abnormal sales, so any more price cuts from Wii will only sustain, not dramatically raise sales.

The Wii is impervious to your logic, perve. Besides Pachter said that there'll definately be a Wii 2 announced at E3 this year!



Tease.

Mummelmann on 31 January 2011
Seece said:

Now? No.

They shipped around 4.90 mill this Jan-March Q last year if I believe, this year they forecast 2.3 mill, that's down over 2.6 million .. more than half.

In terms of shipments ...

Q4 2010 - 84.6
Q1 2011 - (2.3) = 86.9
Q2 2011 - 3.0 same period last year, so I expect around (2.0) = 88.9
Q3 2011 - 1.8 same period last year, so I expect around (1.4) = 90.3

So that means they need to ship 10.7 million in Q4, to reach 100 million units sold to consumer (assuming around 1 mill on shelves, transport ect)

8.7 to 10.7 ... that's a 2 mill rise over last xmas, whilst it's very doable with a price cut, I think it'll just miss and end up something like 99 - 99.5

105 is completely illogical and out of the question. It's quite obvious at this point the Wii is following the same sales pattern as a normal console. It's 360 and PS3 that are having the abnormal sales, so any more price cuts from Wii will only sustain, not dramatically raise sales.


How dare you! The Wii is always underestimated! It has the most leverage despite already being the cheapest! It will continue pulling 20 million pluss years for a few more years! It will easily beat the PS2 lifetime and reach 50% marketshare in 2008! 2009! 2010? 200000.... ? Etc.

Good post, 105 million by year's end is quite simply impossible this far into the console lifecycle.



axt113 on 31 January 2011

^Except you guys ignore the OP's remarks about software, if Nintendo is able to get out come killer apps this year, that could change the trend dramatically



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

Seece on 31 January 2011
axt113 said:

^Except you guys ignore the OP's remarks about software, if Nintendo is able to get out come killer apps this year, that could change the trend dramatically

No, they can't. No game Nintendo can make for the Wii is going to spur on a further 5 million sales .....



 

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postofficebuddy on 31 January 2011
Seece said:

105 is completely illogical and out of the question. It's quite obvious at this point the Wii is following the same sales pattern as a normal console. It's 360 and PS3 that are having the abnormal sales, so any more price cuts from Wii will only sustain, not dramatically raise sales.


What makes you say that? PS2 was only about 2 million off of it's peak in 2005 and the PS1 was just hitting its stride at this point in it's life cycle. Wii will probably be 10 million or more off of its peak this year and obviously it hit its stride a long time ago. If anything PS3 is the one following a normal sales curve. It's trending very similarly to PS1. Admittedly it fell behind PS1's pace slightly last year but the overall curve is similar.



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Immortal on 31 January 2011
Mummelmann said:

How dare you! The Wii is always underestimated! It has the most leverage despite already being the cheapest! It will continue pulling 20 million pluss years for a few more years! It will easily beat the PS2 lifetime and reach 50% marketshare in 2008! 2009! 2010? 200000.... ? Etc.

Good post, 105 million by year's end is quite simply impossible this far into the console lifecycle.

Who has actually ever said that since like early 2010, when all of that was true/extremely likely? I mean, even the mockful "Wii iz doomed" posts from us Wii fans had more basis, :P.

Oh, and price-wise, I'd say that the Wii does have the most leverage, simply because it's much cheaper to produce. A $199 PS3 probably wouldn't fare any better against a $99 Wii than the $299 PS3 is faring against the $199 Wii. In fact, it'd probably fare much worse.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

axt113 on 31 January 2011
Seece said:
axt113 said:

^Except you guys ignore the OP's remarks about software, if Nintendo is able to get out come killer apps this year, that could change the trend dramatically

No, they can't. No game Nintendo can make for the Wii is going to spur on a further 5 million sales .....

You must be new to Nintendo history



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea

Seece on 31 January 2011
axt113 said:
Seece said:
axt113 said:

^Except you guys ignore the OP's remarks about software, if Nintendo is able to get out come killer apps this year, that could change the trend dramatically

No, they can't. No game Nintendo can make for the Wii is going to spur on a further 5 million sales .....

You must be new to Nintendo history

No, you must be new to logic. I still find it hilarious Nintendo fans think Nintendo can come out with games that sell millions of consoles in a short space of time, It's laughable.



 

axt113 on 31 January 2011
Seece said:
axt113 said:
Seece said:
axt113 said:

^Except you guys ignore the OP's remarks about software, if Nintendo is able to get out come killer apps this year, that could change the trend dramatically

No, they can't. No game Nintendo can make for the Wii is going to spur on a further 5 million sales .....

You must be new to Nintendo history

No, you must be new to logic. I still find it hilarious Nintendo fans think Nintendo can come out with games that sell millions of consoles in a short space of time, It's laughable.


Who said anything about short space of time, its been nearly a year and a half since the last one (NSMB). I would be more surprised if they aren't working on one



Rumors indicate that it is planning on following the first approach, sticking a new, motion-sensitive controller onto an existing console. Our perspective is that this is the worst of the three options.

-Clayton Christensen back in 2007 already knew Move would be a bad idea