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Mummelmann on 31 January 2011
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Seece said:

Now? No.

They shipped around 4.90 mill this Jan-March Q last year if I believe, this year they forecast 2.3 mill, that's down over 2.6 million .. more than half.

In terms of shipments ...

Q4 2010 - 84.6
Q1 2011 - (2.3) = 86.9
Q2 2011 - 3.0 same period last year, so I expect around (2.0) = 88.9
Q3 2011 - 1.8 same period last year, so I expect around (1.4) = 90.3

So that means they need to ship 10.7 million in Q4, to reach 100 million units sold to consumer (assuming around 1 mill on shelves, transport ect)

8.7 to 10.7 ... that's a 2 mill rise over last xmas, whilst it's very doable with a price cut, I think it'll just miss and end up something like 99 - 99.5

105 is completely illogical and out of the question. It's quite obvious at this point the Wii is following the same sales pattern as a normal console. It's 360 and PS3 that are having the abnormal sales, so any more price cuts from Wii will only sustain, not dramatically raise sales.


How dare you! The Wii is always underestimated! It has the most leverage despite already being the cheapest! It will continue pulling 20 million pluss years for a few more years! It will easily beat the PS2 lifetime and reach 50% marketshare in 2008! 2009! 2010? 200000.... ? Etc.

Good post, 105 million by year's end is quite simply impossible this far into the console lifecycle.