I agree that most of those will harm Wii sales, but to a smaller extent than you seem to expect.

I expect Kinect to drop like a rock after the combined effect of holiday hype and marketing fully wears off and not affect Wii sales in the long term at all.

Lots of SW can still push hardware by simply making sure that the console is alive - you're more likely to buy a Wii if you constantly see ads for Wii games than if not. Also, plenty of audiences simply haven't been attracted to Wii. Not saying they will be, but games from certain genres could be helpful in boosting Wii sales.

I agree with you on the last two points.

You're disregarding plenty of things Nintendo could do to boost Wii sales, though. A redesign, which, I'll admit, is pretty unlikely at this point, would push Wii back to the astronomical levels achieved in 2008. Also, if Nintendo does intend to stay in this generation for a while longer, they may be willing to decrease the price of their games - NSMB and MK at $30 would make many jump for the Wii.

Why would a redesign push Wii to astronomical levels?  Come on lets be serious. The thing is already very small. Even with the PS3 and X360 redesign the Wii is still half the size (or smaller).  Its not like they would add anything like the 360 did with adding WiFi since the Wii already has WiFi.  They arent going to add a HDD.  Wii redesign wouldnt really add anything just make it a little smaller.

I agree that new software period is what keeps consoles selling.  Yet it is also completly natural for a console to have sales slow. The Wii reached its peak 2 years ago. The trend isnt going to reverse.  Not to mention I said 30% drop off and so far for this year the number is closer to 35%.   If it continued at its current trend the sales for the 53 weeks would look more like 13-14M.

I disagree that the PS3 and 360 having motion control will not effect Wii sales in the long term.

I don't see why a redesign has to slim down the console. They could just make it look fancy and call it Wii Plus, really. It'll just spur interest in the console in a big way - it'll have a much larger effect than the HD Slims because it has a much larger base, allowing more rebuys.

Also, consoles with huge sales have always tended to have long tails. I'd expect the same for Wii as a 3-5m decline in a console's fifth year is anything but natural.

Move and Kinect have really come too late to even scratch the Wii - if they'd come around 2007-8, all consoles would have about equal market share right now. Now, the Wii isn't selling on the Motion novelty at all so it doesn't make a difference if PS3 and 360 are capable of Motion.

So I say Wii will sell 22.1 Million in 2011 and you say it will sell 14.6 Million in 2011.

If Wii sells less than 14.6 Million...you were closer.

If Wii sells between 14.6 Million and 18.34 Million...you were closer.

If Wii sells more than 22.1 Million...I was closer.

If Wii sells between 18.36 Million and 22.1 Million I was closer.

If Wii sells exactly 18.35 Million it is a tie LOL.

By the way this is just to see who will be closer right?(No bets is fine by me but if you want to I will)

I honestly think that Wii can sell over your prediction without a Price Cut this year.

Wii will lose massive sales this year, the PS3 and 360 both will get a pricecut. Wii will slow down to 16-17 million sales this year. Its going down from now on.

Sales for 2011 will depend on software, if Nintendo can get out some really big hits, 10 million plus sellers, and cuts its price to $150, then I expect sales will be higher than 2010, if not, it will likely be a bit lower (10-20% lower)

And Wii won't? Wii has the widest scope for price cuts out of the Big Three at the moment. Nintendo could probably break even on a $75 Wii right now.

Not saying it will get a huge price cut, but, if Nintendo feels too lazy to spur sales in any other way, it easily could.

Your prediction seems fine, though.

I don't see any reason why this can't happen.

If Wii Relax is a hit it will rocket hardware as it will appeal to people who have never played video games (just like Wii Fit and Brain Age). I think that, combined with a price cut and a few more big hits (Zelda?), it wouldn't be a surprise to see your prediction come true.

Wii Vitality should perform better and Increase Wii I see it being 50$

i honestly think the wii will fall behind the ps3 and 360 in the us startin in march and then continue like that until the holidays which would make them on top again with a price cut and zelda. then again ps3 at $199 would be huge. and a kinect xbox 360 for $199 would be a monster in the u.s.