*Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

[thx1139]

Immortal said:

thx1139 said:

Yes.  Nintendo already cut the amount they expect to sell through March 31st down to 16M.  I cant imagine that the numbers will reverse. 

Why?

More competition.  Kinect is the hot piece of hardware and the more it gets tried the more it will hurt the Wii. Move will as well, but just a smaller impact.  Wii no longer has motion control advantage.  Wii dropped as much as it did this past year with more than 3/4s of the year as the only motion control based system.

At 85M consoles sold no piece of software will move any additional hardware of signifigance.

Smaller available customer base.  Again with the high success already less people to sell to.

All consoles will have price cut this year.  I also expect that when the Wii price cut happens 1 game will be removed from the bundle.  For Nintendo it is now time to maximize profits and the lower the price of the console the fewer titles bought so giving away an extra game really cuts into new software sales.

I agree that most of those will harm Wii sales, but to a smaller extent than you seem to expect.

I expect Kinect to drop like a rock after the combined effect of holiday hype and marketing fully wears off and not affect Wii sales in the long term at all.

Lots of SW can still push hardware by simply making sure that the console is alive - you're more likely to buy a Wii if you constantly see ads for Wii games than if not. Also, plenty of audiences simply haven't been attracted to Wii. Not saying they will be, but games from certain genres could be helpful in boosting Wii sales.

I agree with you on the last two points.

You're disregarding plenty of things Nintendo could do to boost Wii sales, though. A redesign, which, I'll admit, is pretty unlikely at this point, would push Wii back to the astronomical levels achieved in 2008. Also, if Nintendo does intend to stay in this generation for a while longer, they may be willing to decrease the price of their games - NSMB and MK at $30 would make many jump for the Wii.

Why would a redesign push Wii to astronomical levels?  Come on lets be serious. The thing is already very small. Even with the PS3 and X360 redesign the Wii is still half the size (or smaller).  Its not like they would add anything like the 360 did with adding WiFi since the Wii already has WiFi.  They arent going to add a HDD.  Wii redesign wouldnt really add anything just make it a little smaller.

I agree that new software period is what keeps consoles selling.  Yet it is also completly natural for a console to have sales slow. The Wii reached its peak 2 years ago. The trend isnt going to reverse.  Not to mention I said 30% drop off and so far for this year the number is closer to 35%.   If it continued at its current trend the sales for the 53 weeks would look more like 13-14M.

I disagree that the PS3 and 360 having motion control will not effect Wii sales in the long term.