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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Wii reach 100 million by 2011?

Nintendogamer on 22 December 2010
mhsillen said:
Nintendogamer said:
SaviorX said:

...

It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.

Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...

It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:


 24,393,681 ( 49%) 43,713,632
  21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2008 24,393,681 (49%) 43,713,632
2009 21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2010 19,143,288 (-13%) 84,659,804
2011 13,347,458 (-31%) 98,007,262

My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.

Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).

A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.

Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions  out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.

Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:

Lucky 2011 15,506,259 (-19%) 100,166,063

Yep, I reckon it will finish around the 96M - 98M range, good milestone, but 100M is a no brainer in Q1 2012 if it doesn't do 100M end of 2011.  We shall see in 1 years time, but I guess we can easily guess during Fall 2011.

from 19 mil to 13 mil?

No way does it drop that much maybe to 17 but that much?

way to negative

My guess is 101 mil

Oh if it does 19M then according nordlead then it has a good shot at 16M. So 100M pretty much.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

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Jay520 on 22 December 2010

of course, it only needs 16mil



astrosmash on 22 December 2010
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

When you are predicting the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems, don't you think the onus is on you to provide solid evidence for such a prediction? 



gekkokamen on 22 December 2010
astrosmash said:
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

When you are predicting the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems, don't you think the onus is on you to provide solid evidence for such a prediction? 


Do you have any evidence to attest that this would be the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems? The Wii has sold as of last week 15.69 (according to VGC of course) in 2010. Let's say it ends the year at 18.5 million. I say it could reach 15 million next year. Is 3-3.5 million the biggest yoy drop in history? LMAO, listen to yourself man, LMAO...

Wii 2010

2 Wii 7.33 1.34 7.02 15.69

Wii 2009

2 Wii 10.72 2.02 9.06 21.80

Wii 2008

2 Wii 11.44 3.02 9.94 24.39

 

Dude, want more proof? what was that thing you say, oh right, "the onus is on you"...LMAO....



Beuli2 on 22 December 2010
gekkokamen said:
astrosmash said:
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

When you are predicting the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems, don't you think the onus is on you to provide solid evidence for such a prediction? 


Do you have any evidence to attest that this would be the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems? The Wii has sold as of last week 15.69 (according to VGC of course) in 2010. Let's say it ends the year at 18.5 million. I say it could reach 15 million next year. Is 3-3.5 million the biggest yoy drop in history? LMAO, listen to yourself man, LMAO...

Wii 2010

2 Wii 7.33 1.34 7.02 15.69

Wii 2009

2 Wii 10.72 2.02 9.06 21.80

Wii 2008

2 Wii 11.44 3.02 9.94 24.39

 

Dude, want more proof? what was that thing you say, oh right, "the onus is on you"...LMAO....

Actually, this is wrong because:

1. It won't sell 18.5 millions this year, it will do at least 19 million, but will likely do more with a big increase in Americas due the deals this week, ending with 19.2 millions. Yes, 0.7 million makes a difference.

2. You are actually expecting it to have "a shot" at 15 millions WITH the price cut. That means it would do around 13 millions without the price cut. That would be a 6 - 6.4 millions decrease from 2010 and THIS is a big dropoff.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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Nintendogamer on 22 December 2010

If Wii does about 14M in 2011 then it will hit 98M end of next year, not too shabby, but if it happens to hit 16M then it will hit 100M end of 2011.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Dv8thwonder on 22 December 2010

The Wii will do 18m next year and reach 100m sold by 2Q.



Things that need to die in 2016: Defeatist attitudes of Nintendo fans

gekkokamen on 22 December 2010
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:
astrosmash said:
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

When you are predicting the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems, don't you think the onus is on you to provide solid evidence for such a prediction? 


Do you have any evidence to attest that this would be the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems? The Wii has sold as of last week 15.69 (according to VGC of course) in 2010. Let's say it ends the year at 18.5 million. I say it could reach 15 million next year. Is 3-3.5 million the biggest yoy drop in history? LMAO, listen to yourself man, LMAO...

Wii 2010

2 Wii 7.33 1.34 7.02 15.69

Wii 2009

2 Wii 10.72 2.02 9.06 21.80

Wii 2008

2 Wii 11.44 3.02 9.94 24.39

 

Dude, want more proof? what was that thing you say, oh right, "the onus is on you"...LMAO....

Actually, this is wrong because:

1. It won't sell 18.5 millions this year, it will do at least 19 million, but will likely do more with a big increase in Americas due the deals this week, ending with 19.2 millions. Yes, 0.7 million makes a difference.

2. You are actually expecting it to have "a shot" at 15 millions WITH the price cut. That means it would do around 13 millions without the price cut. That would be a 6 - 6.4 millions decrease from 2010 and THIS is a big dropoff.

Now grasping at straws doggie? lol... now you are putting numbers in my mouth? 13 million it means now YOU say? dude, the evidence hits you in the face and you still can't see it. The Wii had a price cut last year and it still dropped 3 million from the previous year and it will finished around 3 million DOWN YOY this year, so.....Oooh now I own a little pirate doggie, yipeee :D



Beuli2 on 22 December 2010
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:
astrosmash said:
gekkokamen said:
Beuli2 said:
gekkokamen said:

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.

A shot? How much do you rhink it'll sell next year?  12 millions? It jsut won't fall that much from 19 millions.

And let me ask you're also one of those who thinks the Xbox 360 or PS3 will sell more than 15 millions next year?


Just won't fall? what makes you so sure to state that as FACT? I gave you my prediction, just what i THINK. So whatever. Sales go down, not up after you reach a point in life and just under $200 price tag. I THINK the Wii won't sell more than 15 million next year, is it so hard to believe? I THINK it's quite realistic.

When you are predicting the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems, don't you think the onus is on you to provide solid evidence for such a prediction? 


Do you have any evidence to attest that this would be the largest yoy drop in the history of game systems? The Wii has sold as of last week 15.69 (according to VGC of course) in 2010. Let's say it ends the year at 18.5 million. I say it could reach 15 million next year. Is 3-3.5 million the biggest yoy drop in history? LMAO, listen to yourself man, LMAO...

Wii 2010

2 Wii 7.33 1.34 7.02 15.69

Wii 2009

2 Wii 10.72 2.02 9.06 21.80

Wii 2008

2 Wii 11.44 3.02 9.94 24.39

 

Dude, want more proof? what was that thing you say, oh right, "the onus is on you"...LMAO....

Actually, this is wrong because:

1. It won't sell 18.5 millions this year, it will do at least 19 million, but will likely do more with a big increase in Americas due the deals this week, ending with 19.2 millions. Yes, 0.7 million makes a difference.

2. You are actually expecting it to have "a shot" at 15 millions WITH the price cut. That means it would do around 13 millions without the price cut. That would be a 6 - 6.4 millions decrease from 2010 and THIS is a big dropoff.

Now grasping at straws doggie? lol... now you are putting numbers in my mouth? 14 million? dude, the evidence hits you in the face and you still can't see it. The Wii had a price cut last year and it still dropped 3 million from the previous year and it will finished around 3 million DOWN YOY this year, so.....Oooh now I own a little pirate doggie, yipeee :D

I'm not putting numbers in your mouth, but you said it might do 15 millions with the pricecut, meaning that without it could do between 0 and 14.99 millions next year, but it is reasonable to think it is 13 millions. The Wii sold less than last year because of the first three quarters, before the pricecut, in Q4 it did gigantic numbers, and hardly could sell more than it did, and it will be down this year for the same reason as.



Above: still the best game of the year.