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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Wii reach 100 million by 2011?

Ninten78 on 21 December 2010

Yes



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phenom08 on 21 December 2010
Immortal said:
phenom08 said:
Immortal said:

82-83m? Surely, you're joking. Wii is up YOY for this week and has deals far better than last year for the next two weeks. If our numbers for the past few weeks are correct, I'd be willing to bet that it'll undoubtedly hit 84.5m, with 86m as an outside possibility if it's undertracked and about 85-85.5m otherwise.

With about 19.5m for the year, the Wii will have declined about ~2m YOY, which, interestingly, is a lower drop than the year before, without a price cut. Whilst it would be ridiculous to expect the Wii, a console going into its fifth year with 85m households saturated already and very little chance of repurchase, to continue to reduce its declines forever, with a price cut to $150 and some decent software, keeping its declines steady is not at all out of the question. That would put Wii at about 102-103m by the end of the year.

In short, yes, I believe it will. I'd be rather disappointed if it didn't.

Also, if the Vitality Sensor or a console redesign of some sort drops and does well, add approximately 7-8m to my prediction, :P.

thank you, thats exactly my point, the wii only dropped around 2 million units this calendar year, and the wii has even better deals than ever which could very well keep the wii up this for the rest of this year, like last week


Yeah, I dunno why people think it's gonna be significantly below.

For your other argument though, I have to agree with RolStoppable. Looking back so far, Nintendo has done next to nothing to boost the Wii. My guess is, they're either saving costs or are saving moves for post-Bii launch. I seriously doubt that they'll be working too hard to boost the Wii next year. Not that they'll need to though, :P.

yea i agree but it still did nearly 20 million, i still believe it can pull it off for the year, i just can't imagine nintendo selling less than 15 million next year honestly, i see that has pure stupidty, a 5 million drop is insane



Beuli2 on 21 December 2010
jarrod said:

Wii will drop, but it'll still be the best selling home console next year.  Hell, depending on the DS drop, Wii might end up being the best selling console overall for 2011.

Actually there is a great chance for the Wii being the best selling system next year. Right now Wii is at 15 millions and the DS at 18.6 millions, and a good drop is nothing but expect next year for the DS. The 3DS won't sell much the first year, the PS3 and Xbox 360 won't magically raise like many predict neither the Wii will drop 6 millions to 13 millions like some seem to think  (and tge PSP is just LOL).



Above: still the best game of the year.

Immortal on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Sorry rol that had to be the stupidest thing i ever heard, unlikely to be smaller and why is that lol, are you telling me the wii can't get even smaller, yea it definitely can, and what exactly did the ps3 and 360 slim add, not much at all, the wii's redesign could add anything nintendo wants, i don't work for them and neither do you, all they added to the dsi was a camera and sells still exploded, and i understand what your saying but i try to be as accurate as possible i highly doubt nintendo will let it drop as much as it did from 2008 to 2009

It can't get much smaller than it is already and what can be done won't make a difference to the consumer. I have yet to here someone complain that the Wii is too big or has an ugly design.

I don't think it was the actual redesign that boosted PS3/360 sales though. My guess is that it simply spurred a lot of interest in the console ("oh cool, a new console, perfect time to finally buy PS3/360") and allowed rebuys. I really can't see any consumer buying a product because it's now "thin" enough to suit their purposes.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

phenom08 on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Sorry rol that had to be the stupidest thing i ever heard, unlikely to be smaller and why is that lol, are you telling me the wii can't get even smaller, yea it definitely can, and what exactly did the ps3 and 360 slim add, not much at all, the wii's redesign could add anything nintendo wants, i don't work for them and neither do you, all they added to the dsi was a camera and sells still exploded, and i understand what your saying but i try to be as accurate as possible i highly doubt nintendo will let it drop as much as it did from 2008 to 2009

It can't get much smaller than it is already and what can be done won't make a difference to the consumer. I have yet to here someone complain that the Wii is too big or has an ugly design.

i wonder if you said this same thing about the 360 slim lol



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phenom08 on 21 December 2010
Immortal said:
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Sorry rol that had to be the stupidest thing i ever heard, unlikely to be smaller and why is that lol, are you telling me the wii can't get even smaller, yea it definitely can, and what exactly did the ps3 and 360 slim add, not much at all, the wii's redesign could add anything nintendo wants, i don't work for them and neither do you, all they added to the dsi was a camera and sells still exploded, and i understand what your saying but i try to be as accurate as possible i highly doubt nintendo will let it drop as much as it did from 2008 to 2009

It can't get much smaller than it is already and what can be done won't make a difference to the consumer. I have yet to here someone complain that the Wii is too big or has an ugly design.

I don't think it was the actual redesign that boosted PS3/360 sales though. My guess is that it simply spurred a lot of interest in the console ("oh cool, a new console, perfect time to finally buy PS3/360") and allowed rebuys. I really can't see any consumer buying a product because it's now "thin" enough to suit their purposes.

"to finally buy" yea right, try rebuy, why didnt the 360 software increase much when the redesigns came?



Immortal on 21 December 2010
phenom08 said:
Immortal said:
phenom08 said:
Immortal said:

82-83m? Surely, you're joking. Wii is up YOY for this week and has deals far better than last year for the next two weeks. If our numbers for the past few weeks are correct, I'd be willing to bet that it'll undoubtedly hit 84.5m, with 86m as an outside possibility if it's undertracked and about 85-85.5m otherwise.

With about 19.5m for the year, the Wii will have declined about ~2m YOY, which, interestingly, is a lower drop than the year before, without a price cut. Whilst it would be ridiculous to expect the Wii, a console going into its fifth year with 85m households saturated already and very little chance of repurchase, to continue to reduce its declines forever, with a price cut to $150 and some decent software, keeping its declines steady is not at all out of the question. That would put Wii at about 102-103m by the end of the year.

In short, yes, I believe it will. I'd be rather disappointed if it didn't.

Also, if the Vitality Sensor or a console redesign of some sort drops and does well, add approximately 7-8m to my prediction, :P.

thank you, thats exactly my point, the wii only dropped around 2 million units this calendar year, and the wii has even better deals than ever which could very well keep the wii up this for the rest of this year, like last week


Yeah, I dunno why people think it's gonna be significantly below.

For your other argument though, I have to agree with RolStoppable. Looking back so far, Nintendo has done next to nothing to boost the Wii. My guess is, they're either saving costs or are saving moves for post-Bii launch. I seriously doubt that they'll be working too hard to boost the Wii next year. Not that they'll need to though, :P.

yea i agree but it still did nearly 20 million, i still believe it can pull it off for the year, i just can't imagine nintendo selling less than 15 million next year honestly, i see that has pure stupidty, a 5 million drop is insane

Yeah, looking at the predictions for the Wii in the past few months, I don't trust this site's members to predict the Wii right at all. 15m is all but guaranteed and heck, if my guess regarding the $200 price point's saturation is correct, it could even be up YOY.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

phenom08 on 21 December 2010
Immortal said:
phenom08 said:
Immortal said:
phenom08 said:
Immortal said:

82-83m? Surely, you're joking. Wii is up YOY for this week and has deals far better than last year for the next two weeks. If our numbers for the past few weeks are correct, I'd be willing to bet that it'll undoubtedly hit 84.5m, with 86m as an outside possibility if it's undertracked and about 85-85.5m otherwise.

With about 19.5m for the year, the Wii will have declined about ~2m YOY, which, interestingly, is a lower drop than the year before, without a price cut. Whilst it would be ridiculous to expect the Wii, a console going into its fifth year with 85m households saturated already and very little chance of repurchase, to continue to reduce its declines forever, with a price cut to $150 and some decent software, keeping its declines steady is not at all out of the question. That would put Wii at about 102-103m by the end of the year.

In short, yes, I believe it will. I'd be rather disappointed if it didn't.

Also, if the Vitality Sensor or a console redesign of some sort drops and does well, add approximately 7-8m to my prediction, :P.

thank you, thats exactly my point, the wii only dropped around 2 million units this calendar year, and the wii has even better deals than ever which could very well keep the wii up this for the rest of this year, like last week


Yeah, I dunno why people think it's gonna be significantly below.

For your other argument though, I have to agree with RolStoppable. Looking back so far, Nintendo has done next to nothing to boost the Wii. My guess is, they're either saving costs or are saving moves for post-Bii launch. I seriously doubt that they'll be working too hard to boost the Wii next year. Not that they'll need to though, :P.

yea i agree but it still did nearly 20 million, i still believe it can pull it off for the year, i just can't imagine nintendo selling less than 15 million next year honestly, i see that has pure stupidty, a 5 million drop is insane

Yeah, looking at the predictions for the Wii in the past few months, I don't trust this site's members to predict the Wii right at all. 15m is all but guaranteed and heck, if my guess regarding the $200 price point's saturation is correct, it could even be up YOY.

For now on im not taking anything serious a vgchartz poster say to me about the wii, this is pure stupidty, apple the biggest hardware mover in the world redesigns their products each and every year and you guys are sitting here doubting what a redesign can do for sales lol



Immortal on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
Immortal said:
RolStoppable said:

It can't get much smaller than it is already and what can be done won't make a difference to the consumer. I have yet to here someone complain that the Wii is too big or has an ugly design.

I don't think it was the actual redesign that boosted PS3/360 sales though. My guess is that it simply spurred a lot of interest in the console ("oh cool, a new console, perfect time to finally buy PS3/360") and allowed rebuys. I really can't see any consumer buying a product because it's now "thin" enough to suit their purposes.

Obviously the price drop played a bigger role in the case of the PS3, for the 360 it was more the expectation of better reliability than the difference in size (which wasn't a lot anyway). And you are right, a redesign spurs interest, because it makes the console look new. 

But a redesigned Wii wouldn't look much different than the current Wii, unless Nintendo made it bigger. I just don't see that happening.

Honestly, Nintendo could do something ridiculous like "NES-Wii" with horizontal positioning as standard, Sensor implemented inside console and bundled with SMC.

That'd sell a lot, I'm sure. People really underestimate the power of a redesign. It saed the PS2 from a very premature death.

We're arguing a moot point though, :P. I agree with you that it simply isn't gonna happen considering how interested Nintendo is in boosting Wii sales.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

phenom08 on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
Immortal said:
RolStoppable said:

It can't get much smaller than it is already and what can be done won't make a difference to the consumer. I have yet to here someone complain that the Wii is too big or has an ugly design.

I don't think it was the actual redesign that boosted PS3/360 sales though. My guess is that it simply spurred a lot of interest in the console ("oh cool, a new console, perfect time to finally buy PS3/360") and allowed rebuys. I really can't see any consumer buying a product because it's now "thin" enough to suit their purposes.

Obviously the price drop played a bigger role in the case of the PS3, for the 360 it was more the expectation of better reliability than the difference in size (which wasn't a lot anyway). And you are right, a redesign spurs interest, because it makes the console look new. 

But a redesigned Wii wouldn't look much different than the current Wii, unless Nintendo made it bigger. I just don't see that happening.

Rol do you live in the united states, i believe i read you are from australia, if thats true then honestly thats why you don't know what a redesign can do, number one there were plenty of rebuys for the ps3, and why would someone buy a whole new console just because of the "questionable reliability" when they could send it in for cheaper, Rol people buy redesigns because of the spurred interest like you said

Edit: i admit a redesign is pretty much just my speculation, but im sure the wii could still pull a cool 17 million in 2011 without a redesign