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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Wii reach 100 million by 2011?

SaviorX on 21 December 2010

...

It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.

Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...

It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:

2008 24,393,681 (49%) 43,713,632
2009 21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2010 19,143,288 (-13%) 84,659,804
2011 13,347,458 (-31%) 98,007,262

My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.

Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).

A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.

Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions  out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.

Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:

Lucky 2011 15,506,259 (-19%) 100,166,063


Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

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Nintendogamer on 21 December 2010
SaviorX said:

...

It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.

Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...

It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:


 24,393,681 ( 49%) 43,713,632
  21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2008 24,393,681 (49%) 43,713,632
2009 21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2010 19,143,288 (-13%) 84,659,804
2011 13,347,458 (-31%) 98,007,262

My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.

Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).

A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.

Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions  out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.

Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:

Lucky 2011 15,506,259 (-19%) 100,166,063

Yep, I reckon it will finish around the 96M - 98M range, good milestone, but 100M is a no brainer in Q1 2012 if it doesn't do 100M end of 2011.  We shall see in 1 years time, but I guess we can easily guess during Fall 2011.



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DrZoidberg on 21 December 2010

knowing what we know right now i think it will be very close(couple million short)

everything changes if there is a price cut though



 

Pavolink on 21 December 2010

Yes. Maybe the last week of the year.



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phenom08 on 21 December 2010
SaviorX said:

...

It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.

Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...

It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:

2008 24,393,681 (49%) 43,713,632
2009 21,802,884 (-11%) 65,516,516
2010 19,143,288 (-13%) 84,659,804
2011 13,347,458 (-31%) 98,007,262

My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.

Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).

A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.

Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions  out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.

Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:

Lucky 2011 15,506,259 (-19%) 100,166,063

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?



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phenom08 on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.


Sorry rol its kinda hard to take you serious sometimes because i don't know if your being sarcastic or serious, i highly doubt your being serious, because honestly these people are clearly blind. 20 million is looking quite likely for the year now, 3 weeks left and last year it did another 4.6 million before the end, the wii's at 15.9 million now, 85 million sell through is looking likely too. So all this 82 -83 million talk proves they haven't looked and what exaxtly did the wii have early next year that it doesn't have early next year.



Salnax on 21 December 2010

I imagine the Wii will just miss the 2011 deadline, and will sell 100 million in Q1 2012.



Love and tolerate.

z101 on 21 December 2010
SmokedHostage said:

Nintendo is the Wii's biggest problem.  They need, foremost, software that spurs momentum.  Despite having several evergreen titles, they will eventually have a saturation point.


The new year starts with Mario Sports Mix (I think in most countries). Kirby in Europe. The Last Story in Japan. The new Zelda seems to be released early 2011, too.

I think that's a good beginning.



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Mordred11 on 21 December 2010

With a price-cut,that's almost LOCKED.Without a price-cut,which is unlikely,it's still possible.



gekkokamen on 21 December 2010

if Nintendo cuts the price to $150 next year Wii could have a shot at 15 million, if not, then nope.