2016? Maybe the PS3 will overtake the Wii by then, but that would only be because Nintendo had abandoned the Wii for three or four years by that point.
Love and tolerate.
raptors11 said:
- ~45 million by the end of this year probably (give or take a million or so) - ~60 million by end of 2011 (a price cut at some point in the year to $250 or less likely to $200). 15 million this year isn't unreasonable, especially if there is a solid price drop. - ~ ~75-80 million by end of 2012 (a price cut to $200 if it isn't already that low at some point during the year, PS4 releases in Fall). I honestly think, assuming there's a good price drop by now, that 2012 could be PS3's peak year for sales even though the PS4 will likely release this year. - ~85-90 million by end of 2013 (price probably dropped to $150 during the year). - ~92-97 million by end of 2014 (price cut to $125 during the year) - Over 100 million by end of 2015 (price cut to $99 during the year)
And at some point (maybe 2012 before the PS4) I think a new PS3 superslim will be release which gets it down to at least half its current size. PS3 isn't going to beat Wii but it sure as hell is gonna continue to sell for several more years. |
I'd say nextgen is probably just a year off or so, year and a half at most (spring 2012).
PS3 isn't going to move 15-20m over the next several years either, especially if there's a comparable next gen Wii sitting on store shelves next to it, getting most of the same 3rd party games.
The recent adjustments have made a lot of people lose their minds, I simply can not fathom how some of the posts in here are thought out, let alone posted with near religious fervor.
It really amazes me how some people simply don't seem to be able to see even the slightest chance of PS3 passing the Wii eventually. Really, comments like ''the gap is 35 million so no way''? Is that a joke? Yes the PS3 won't overtake the Wii while their both on the market, but you can rest assured that the PS3 while be on the market longer than the Wii. So at that point every single sale the PS3 makes directly cuts down the Wii's lead.
| sad.man.loves.vgc said: 360 can do that too! |
True, but I don't see either of them catching the Wii. So I say no.
__________________________________________
'gaming till I'm gone'
| AnthonyW86 said: It really amazes me how some people simply don't seem to be able to see even the slightest chance of PS3 passing the Wii eventually. Really, comments like ''the gap is 35 million so no way''? Is that a joke? Yes the PS3 won't overtake the Wii while their both on the market, but you can rest assured that the PS3 while be on the market longer than the Wii. So at that point every single sale the PS3 makes directly cuts down the Wii's lead. |
The race is over once the next generation starts. If the PS3 doesn't catch the Wii within the same amount of time it was out on the market, it's over. Doesn't matter what the PS3 does after that. The Wii still wins.
__________________________________________
'gaming till I'm gone'
XanderZane said:
The race is over once the next generation starts. If the PS3 doesn't catch the Wii within the same amount of time it was out on the market, it's over. Doesn't matter what the PS3 does after that. The Wii still wins. |
That must be about the silliest thing i've ever heard. You know a company profits most on a console later on in it's life-cycle? You know that any new system that will be released is likely to be outsold by it's predecessor in the first two years? Not only that the old system will sell more software in the first two years aswell, and keep bringing in money. And what is the start of the next generation exactly? When Nintendo launches their next console witch is barely more powerfull than the current PS3 and X360?
A system is dead when it stops bringing in money and isn't produced anymore, so no the Wii doesn't win. More importantly, PS3 may even beat the Wii where it really counts, in the number of software sold.
| AnthonyW86 said: That must be about the silliest thing i've ever heard. You know a company profits most on a console later on in it's life-cycle? You know that any new system that will be released is likely to be outsold by it's predecessor in the first two years? Not only that the old system will sell more software in the first two years aswell, and keep bringing in money. And what is the start of the next generation exactly? When Nintendo launches their next console witch is barely more powerfull than the current PS3 and X360? A system is dead when it stops bringing in money and isn't produced anymore, so no the Wii doesn't win. More importantly, PS3 may even beat the Wii where it really counts, in the number of software sold. |
Nintendo made billions of dollars in the Wii's initial years, while Sony's PS division lost billions of dollars even with all the PS2's profits.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.
|
AnthonyW86 said: That must be about the silliest thing i've ever heard. You know a company profits most on a console later on in it's life-cycle? You know that any new system that will be released is likely to be outsold by it's predecessor in the first two years? Not only that the old system will sell more software in the first two years aswell, and keep bringing in money. And what is the start of the next generation exactly? When Nintendo launches their next console witch is barely more powerfull than the current PS3 and X360? A system is dead when it stops bringing in money and isn't produced anymore, so no the Wii doesn't win. More importantly, PS3 may even beat the Wii where it really counts, in the number of software sold. |
Most consoles profit most during their peak, mid-cycle. That was when PS2's biggest returns came, and seems to be Wii's also (looking at it's current natural decline). Obviously there are exceptions, especially for abnormally longer lived systems (like the original Game Boy) but generally systems make most of their money, and grow most of their base, and sell most of their games, within their first 5 years.
It's moot anyway though, the likelihood that PS3 will ever outsell Wii in either hardware or software is so remote, so minuscule, that it's getting exactly the sort of reaction it deserves in this thread already.
Grimes said:
Nintendo made billions of dollars in the Wii's initial years, while Sony's PS division lost billions of dollars even with all the PS2's profits. |
This begs the question... can one ever legitimately claim 1st place if their platform never actually makes money in the end?
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