When Will Wii Reach 70% Market Share
When Will Wii Reach 60% Market Share
When Will Wii Reach 50% Market Share

PS3 Will Never Reach 10M
PS3 Will Force Sony Out Of Gaming
It Is Impossible For PS3 To Reach 50

Anything is possible. So far this gen PS3 has done nothing but piss on previous formulas. Their is no reason not to believe it can pull this off. Is it a long shot? Of course, it is 35M consoles back, and variables are constantly changing. After the launch of connect we could see things swing in favor of 360. Nintendo could drop a price cut in, and surge back and put the gap at 40M. Who knows what will happen? All we can do is speculate. No speculation is dumb. Even well informed speculation can lead to very different results. No one should be laughed at for how they envision the future.

I think that the Wii could drop hard next year and see only about 8 to 12M in sales. PS3 will rise to 18 to 22M on a price cut and a slew of exclusives. 360 will hold steady at around 10 to 14M on a price cut and new interest in Kinect.

In 2012 Wii will be a part of history, Nintendo will launch the next Home console in the late year, and Wii sales will tale off, anding around 100 to 110M life time.

PS3 will see a slimmer unit hit the market in 2012 with a $200 base price and more major exclusives. The system should do around 18 to 22M again this year, and then start falling. In 2013 talk will get heavy about new PS and MS systems, PS3 should fall to around 14 to 18M. In 2014 PS4 will be shown at E3 with a launch around September/October. PS3 should drop back to the 10 to 12M unit mark and have a new Price around $180. With continued price cuts PS3 should see another 20 to 40 Million over the first 5 years PS4 is on the market putting the system at 130 to 160M life time.

360 will probably start to settle down in 2012 seeing units around 8 to 12M. MS will probably launch the next Xbox around November of 2013, this will not do much to 360 sales with the unit down to $150 with Kinect and a base model. I think it can still pull 8 to 10M in this year. If MS follows Sony's lead and keeps the 360 as a base unit for children, and casual gamers, the unit could sell between 10 to 25M units in the 5 years after XB3 launch. That leaving the system around 90 to 110M when its all said and done.

Could that be total nonsense? Of course. I see a very realistic possibility that it could happen though. Hate the OP, hate me, but if it all comes true you won't see me bragging about it. It just is what it is.

Stopped reading. more of this nonsense.

The good thing about your post is that we'll know if it's right by the end of next year where PS3 should outsell Wii by at least 6 million and may go as high as 14 millions. We can revisit this post then.

This. The victory, if you wanna call it that will be hollow at best. Sure it might make SONY some good money but man PS3 could have been a huge cash cow going off the lead of the PS2. It fumbled the ball instead.

Nintendo could release Wii 2 or wtfe you want in the next year or so and one-two-punch SONY and MS in the nuts because I seriously doubt SONY and MS are going to release before 2011 and it could even be late 2013 (for SONY at least) before even an announcement.

Mark my words though, next gen is gonna be a weak jump in performance if SONY or MS release earlier. Hell, PS4 and XNEXT might even just be a new platform with little to no discernible graphics enhancements other than full support for 1080p, true stereo sound, and possible 3D support.  

Looking at this thread it seems people really quickly forgotten the lesson from last quarter numbers.

This threads brings me back to great 2007.

biggest issue for sony is the console refresh will probably be in 2-3 years. 2011 were getting a recycle of the mobile consoles. apple is a big question mark, if they'll do something gaming related (purchase or other wise). rise of gaming on ipad/etc is an issue. you don't want to let another company get in the space and eat up the younger market/casuals. they make up the future customer base.

for home consoles, even if nintendo pushes the wii as long as possible we'll start to hear something of a new nintendo system in 2012. i really believe it wont be long until microsoft jumps in with a new console either. the 360 has been huge for them and microsoft feels they finally have a winner in the home space. given their aggressiveness to expand xbox i wouldn't be surprised to see a upgraded system arrive near nintendos offering.

nintendo and microsft are also reaching a point of exhaunting the major frachises they use to move product. while i thought nintendo would have more space to keep the wii ____ software flowing; we've instead gotten... wii party... mario sports... it really is making me wonder if nintendo is out of ideas on what else they can put out on wii that would be "new".

another wii fit, sports remix isnt going to work as well going forward. plus, do they want to risk making the games loose the appeal when they can release a new console with the same ideas but better technology. the currency issues facing nintendo is also negative when reguarding the wii. going forward were looking at price cuts and lower margins. given the current currency hit nintendo is taking; they need higher priced products in the marketplace to absord any trade negative. (see 3ds and talk of launching at $300)

3ds vs the wii at retail is also going to be a huge issue for nintendo. esp with developers. why take a chance on putting my game on the wii when i can go to a new exciting platform that has life and money in it.

microsoft has less big franchises to rotate; with them becoming very casual/mass market focused for the next year or two. after such a time it would be a good step for microsoft to launch a new console to attract the fan market and expand upon whatever success they find with kinect. the casual audience has a shorter lifespan with an electronic device vs a video game fan. casuals would get something new to play with while the avid gamers would get a new platform feeling the 360 got good use/time.

on the other side of things is sony and they have been very silent about the future. instead pushing the idea of a decade lifespan for a platform. that type of thinking seems a bit dangerous for sony. the space is evolving much quicker now then it did during the playstation one or two era. the intent to hold out and produce profits is understandable. although, sony is also surrounded by other groups who are either flush with money or emboldened by their recent success. that spells trouble for sony and any 10 year plan.

of course it will. because PS4 will not have PS3 compatibility and PS3 will keep selling for another 4 or 5 years afer Wii is out of the market

I wouldn't start talking about how PS3 would outsell Wii lifetime until PS3 actually outsells Wii for a year (fiscal or calendar).

I'm joining the bandwagon!