biggest issue for sony is the console refresh will probably be in 2-3 years. 2011 were getting a recycle of the mobile consoles. apple is a big question mark, if they'll do something gaming related (purchase or other wise). rise of gaming on ipad/etc is an issue. you don't want to let another company get in the space and eat up the younger market/casuals. they make up the future customer base.
for home consoles, even if nintendo pushes the wii as long as possible we'll start to hear something of a new nintendo system in 2012. i really believe it wont be long until microsoft jumps in with a new console either. the 360 has been huge for them and microsoft feels they finally have a winner in the home space. given their aggressiveness to expand xbox i wouldn't be surprised to see a upgraded system arrive near nintendos offering.
nintendo and microsft are also reaching a point of exhaunting the major frachises they use to move product. while i thought nintendo would have more space to keep the wii ____ software flowing; we've instead gotten... wii party... mario sports... it really is making me wonder if nintendo is out of ideas on what else they can put out on wii that would be "new".
another wii fit, sports remix isnt going to work as well going forward. plus, do they want to risk making the games loose the appeal when they can release a new console with the same ideas but better technology. the currency issues facing nintendo is also negative when reguarding the wii. going forward were looking at price cuts and lower margins. given the current currency hit nintendo is taking; they need higher priced products in the marketplace to absord any trade negative. (see 3ds and talk of launching at $300)
3ds vs the wii at retail is also going to be a huge issue for nintendo. esp with developers. why take a chance on putting my game on the wii when i can go to a new exciting platform that has life and money in it.
microsoft has less big franchises to rotate; with them becoming very casual/mass market focused for the next year or two. after such a time it would be a good step for microsoft to launch a new console to attract the fan market and expand upon whatever success they find with kinect. the casual audience has a shorter lifespan with an electronic device vs a video game fan. casuals would get something new to play with while the avid gamers would get a new platform feeling the 360 got good use/time.
on the other side of things is sony and they have been very silent about the future. instead pushing the idea of a decade lifespan for a platform. that type of thinking seems a bit dangerous for sony. the space is evolving much quicker now then it did during the playstation one or two era. the intent to hold out and produce profits is understandable. although, sony is also surrounded by other groups who are either flush with money or emboldened by their recent success. that spells trouble for sony and any 10 year plan.
