PS3 can still finish in first place.

[KBG29]

When Will Wii Reach 70% Market Share
When Will Wii Reach 60% Market Share
When Will Wii Reach 50% Market Share

PS3 Will Never Reach 10M
PS3 Will Force Sony Out Of Gaming
It Is Impossible For PS3 To Reach 50

Anything is possible. So far this gen PS3 has done nothing but piss on previous formulas. Their is no reason not to believe it can pull this off. Is it a long shot? Of course, it is 35M consoles back, and variables are constantly changing. After the launch of connect we could see things swing in favor of 360. Nintendo could drop a price cut in, and surge back and put the gap at 40M. Who knows what will happen? All we can do is speculate. No speculation is dumb. Even well informed speculation can lead to very different results. No one should be laughed at for how they envision the future.

I think that the Wii could drop hard next year and see only about 8 to 12M in sales. PS3 will rise to 18 to 22M on a price cut and a slew of exclusives. 360 will hold steady at around 10 to 14M on a price cut and new interest in Kinect.

In 2012 Wii will be a part of history, Nintendo will launch the next Home console in the late year, and Wii sales will tale off, anding around 100 to 110M life time.

PS3 will see a slimmer unit hit the market in 2012 with a $200 base price and more major exclusives. The system should do around 18 to 22M again this year, and then start falling. In 2013 talk will get heavy about new PS and MS systems, PS3 should fall to around 14 to 18M. In 2014 PS4 will be shown at E3 with a launch around September/October. PS3 should drop back to the 10 to 12M unit mark and have a new Price around $180. With continued price cuts PS3 should see another 20 to 40 Million over the first 5 years PS4 is on the market putting the system at 130 to 160M life time.

360 will probably start to settle down in 2012 seeing units around 8 to 12M. MS will probably launch the next Xbox around November of 2013, this will not do much to 360 sales with the unit down to $150 with Kinect and a base model. I think it can still pull 8 to 10M in this year. If MS follows Sony's lead and keeps the 360 as a base unit for children, and casual gamers, the unit could sell between 10 to 25M units in the 5 years after XB3 launch. That leaving the system around 90 to 110M when its all said and done.

Could that be total nonsense? Of course. I see a very realistic possibility that it could happen though. Hate the OP, hate me, but if it all comes true you won't see me bragging about it. It just is what it is.