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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 to outship the X360 by the end of the 4th quarter? Oh yeh

starcraft said:
leatherhat said:
Pirateogta said:
Gilgamesh said:

I believe it's going to happen now that we really seen the numbers and what Move has done, the PS3 is selling number one and is looking to be the number one console for the Holidays. If GT5 releases this year which it should sales are really going to explode.

Sure the PS3 will probably not pass the X360 in actual sold numbers but shipped? I think so.


I doubt the PS3 will outsell the 360 for a single week for a long, LONG time after Kinect launches, but who knows about the ridiculous shipped numbers. They pretty much mean nothing. Every tracker (VGChartz, NPD, Media Create) showed that the PS3 sold far less in the Apr-June 2010 quarter than the previous quarter, but according to Sony it shipped more units. And anyone with any sense knows that there is no way the PS3 shipped 700,000 units more than the 360 this quarter with the release of the Slim, Halo: Reach, etc. It's almost laughable.


So we should be seeing sony in court soon then? 

OT- Probably not but its possible, I would guess two more quarters. 

Where are people getting this ridiculous notion that Sony is going to get taken to court for misrepresentation on it's financial reports?  There is an ENORMOUS amount of scope to use smoke and mirrors to guard where a number of these units actually are.  Whether they are in homes, retail stores, warehouses or literally just getting done on the production line.

Actully the undertracked units in the EEMA region came from a recent report from Nintendo not Sony. and its believed now that the PS3 has been selling over 200,000 units WW since Sep 18th. partly thanks to Move.

I also think it makes no sense, but i have to accept along with everyone else - that is a fact - i think even Microsofts Aaron Greenburg has accepted this by commenting on Moves sales. the question now is whether or not Kinect will be Microsoft's ace in the hole, and whether or not GT5 can change that.



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Homeroids said:
starcraft said:
leatherhat said:
Pirateogta said:
Gilgamesh said:

I believe it's going to happen now that we really seen the numbers and what Move has done, the PS3 is selling number one and is looking to be the number one console for the Holidays. If GT5 releases this year which it should sales are really going to explode.

Sure the PS3 will probably not pass the X360 in actual sold numbers but shipped? I think so.


I doubt the PS3 will outsell the 360 for a single week for a long, LONG time after Kinect launches, but who knows about the ridiculous shipped numbers. They pretty much mean nothing. Every tracker (VGChartz, NPD, Media Create) showed that the PS3 sold far less in the Apr-June 2010 quarter than the previous quarter, but according to Sony it shipped more units. And anyone with any sense knows that there is no way the PS3 shipped 700,000 units more than the 360 this quarter with the release of the Slim, Halo: Reach, etc. It's almost laughable.


So we should be seeing sony in court soon then? 

OT- Probably not but its possible, I would guess two more quarters. 

Where are people getting this ridiculous notion that Sony is going to get taken to court for misrepresentation on it's financial reports?  There is an ENORMOUS amount of scope to use smoke and mirrors to guard where a number of these units actually are.  Whether they are in homes, retail stores, warehouses or literally just getting done on the production line.

 

Surely you are not implying a conspiracy? Surely someone with the responsibility and experience that you have on this site would not think like this?

Supply channels can be "stuffed" to a certain degree. The amount of discussion on this site in regards to the Shipped vs Sold should suffice but it seems everytime there is a huge adjustment made due to "official" shipped figures, the same old conspiracies and arguments arise. 

The difference between shipped and actual sold can really only ever be a certain amount, a "buffer", a "cache". Given all things equal, most would agree that the difference between shipped and sold is probably somewhere in the vicinity of 1-2million. The supply channel can only be stuffed so far. The other assumption is that shipped probably means "sold" to supplier. A person as yourself should have a great understanding of what shipped means rather than drawing to conspiracy. Someone as respected as yourself.

And of course, the point you just raised, quote, "Where are people getting this ridiculous notion that Sony is going to get taken to court for misrepresentation on it's financial reports?" could be said for the MS shipped figures. It is strange to assume Sony is the one you think is possibly capable of doing this. Why not MS? Personally I see no such conspiracy for any shipped figures from any company. It's not like any of these companies are based in Zimbabwe or Iran :).

Conspiracy?  Why does it all have to be a big vicious song and dance?  It is simply common corporate practice.

My response was to a post that was specifically Sony-related.  But you're correct of course, all three console manufacturers are governed by *similar* rules and are capable of bending them in *similar* ways.



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

I don't know how I can trust VGChartz's numbers anymore. Now that they're all adjusted for the past weeks, how could they have been so wrong for the PS3 every week? It seems that every other console stayed the same, and the PS3 was given a big boost for each week. Why were only the PS3 numbers so wrong for all these weeks? I used to defend this site toward people who would claim its numbers were BS, but now it will be pretty hard to defend. And how do we know the next numbers released are accurate and that they won't be changed weeks later as well? It all seems pretty fishy to me.



Pirateogta said:

I don't know how I can trust VGChartz's numbers anymore. Now that they're all adjusted for the past weeks, how could they have been so wrong for the PS3 every week? It seems that every other console stayed the same, and the PS3 was given a big boost for each week. Why were only the PS3 numbers so wrong for all these weeks? I used to defend this site toward people who would claim its numbers were BS, but now it will be pretty hard to defend. And how do we know the next numbers released are accurate and that they won't be changed weeks later as well? It all seems pretty fishy to me.

You can always use some other more trust worthysite that releases nmbers weekly. Or you can realise that all sales numbers come from estimations and are not going to be 100% accurate.



thranx said:
Pirateogta said:

I don't know how I can trust VGChartz's numbers anymore. Now that they're all adjusted for the past weeks, how could they have been so wrong for the PS3 every week? It seems that every other console stayed the same, and the PS3 was given a big boost for each week. Why were only the PS3 numbers so wrong for all these weeks? I used to defend this site toward people who would claim its numbers were BS, but now it will be pretty hard to defend. And how do we know the next numbers released are accurate and that they won't be changed weeks later as well? It all seems pretty fishy to me.

You can always use some other more trust worthysite that releases nmbers weekly. Or you can realise that all sales numbers come from estimations and are not going to be 100% accurate.


I never imagined they could be THIS inaccurate though!



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Just remember, shipped numbers can often reflect what they think the demand will be for the NEXT quarter. So if it appears that Sony overshipped dramatically one quarter since sales were so low that quarter, it could be that they were building back-stock for upcoming sales. 

 

Another thing to remember... Sony doesn't just pick which retail stores it wants to buy its consoles and then sends them there demanding cash. Retail stores put in the order to get more consoles and then Sony ships them. People fail to see that this number often has nothing to do with the company itself, it has to do with the retailers that actually buy the console from Sony for whatever reason. If Walmart wanted to buy an extra million consoles to use for backstock, and didn't sell them right away, the numbers would appear as if Sony overshipped and MS fans would be in here pointing fingers at Sony calling them liars. 

 

So remember, retailers ORDER the products from Sony and Sony just fulfills them. If the console fails to sell well that quarter, then its not Sony's fault for overshipping, but the retailers fault for over-ordering. On the subject of the overblown Apr - Jun shipped numbers, does anyone have the Jul-Sep shipped numbers? If the number of shipped is still high, then sales must've been undertracked. Retailers aren't going to order even more consoles when the ones they ordered months before still haven't sold. 

 

On a side note, anyone else think its a slight possibility that either of the HD consoles might have a 1 million seller week this holiday season? With the PS3 already pushing 200-250k units all of the way through October and still going strong, it has yet to see the release of GT5 and the huge sales bump that comes mid-way through Nov. The 360 is in the same boat as last year, with a price adjustment and a new slim model which helped push the PS3 over 1 million for a single week laster year. The 360 also has Kinect releasing, which is very likely to cause a holiday sales bump. With this being the predicted peak years for both consoles, I'd say they both have a shot at a 1 million week just before Christmas rolls around.



I'm unsure whether the 360 could do 1mil in a week unless kinect is very, very successful. remember the 360 wont sell in Japan, so its reliant on the EEMEA and US region for kinect sales to reach that 1mil.

however GT5 releasing just before christmas (if the rumours are true). well thats a completley different scenario, because they'll be releasing a huge game in what is probabily the biggest or second biggest retail week of the year, and unlike kinect GT5 will sell in all 3 regions.



Pirateogta said:

I don't know how I can trust VGChartz's numbers anymore. Now that they're all adjusted for the past weeks, how could they have been so wrong for the PS3 every week? It seems that every other console stayed the same, and the PS3 was given a big boost for each week. Why were only the PS3 numbers so wrong for all these weeks? I used to defend this site toward people who would claim its numbers were BS, but now it will be pretty hard to defend. And how do we know the next numbers released are accurate and that they won't be changed weeks later as well? It all seems pretty fishy to me.


VG Chartz is usually within 10% of the actual numbers, we never said we were 100% accurate and 90% of the time we are within that 10% margin, it's very rare that there's an adjustment this big, the Move really through a lot of people off is all.



It took 4 years!!



@Pirateogta:

 

I think you need a tissue to wipe up your tears.   Gilgamesh makes a valid point, and here you come spouting your complete nonsense and BS facts.   I know what you need for the holidays, some knee pads.  After all, microsoft appreciates your service every time.