Just remember, shipped numbers can often reflect what they think the demand will be for the NEXT quarter. So if it appears that Sony overshipped dramatically one quarter since sales were so low that quarter, it could be that they were building back-stock for upcoming sales.
Another thing to remember... Sony doesn't just pick which retail stores it wants to buy its consoles and then sends them there demanding cash. Retail stores put in the order to get more consoles and then Sony ships them. People fail to see that this number often has nothing to do with the company itself, it has to do with the retailers that actually buy the console from Sony for whatever reason. If Walmart wanted to buy an extra million consoles to use for backstock, and didn't sell them right away, the numbers would appear as if Sony overshipped and MS fans would be in here pointing fingers at Sony calling them liars.
So remember, retailers ORDER the products from Sony and Sony just fulfills them. If the console fails to sell well that quarter, then its not Sony's fault for overshipping, but the retailers fault for over-ordering. On the subject of the overblown Apr - Jun shipped numbers, does anyone have the Jul-Sep shipped numbers? If the number of shipped is still high, then sales must've been undertracked. Retailers aren't going to order even more consoles when the ones they ordered months before still haven't sold.
On a side note, anyone else think its a slight possibility that either of the HD consoles might have a 1 million seller week this holiday season? With the PS3 already pushing 200-250k units all of the way through October and still going strong, it has yet to see the release of GT5 and the huge sales bump that comes mid-way through Nov. The 360 is in the same boat as last year, with a price adjustment and a new slim model which helped push the PS3 over 1 million for a single week laster year. The 360 also has Kinect releasing, which is very likely to cause a holiday sales bump. With this being the predicted peak years for both consoles, I'd say they both have a shot at a 1 million week just before Christmas rolls around.