Meh, I always knew you had no chance on this one. I knew Ninty wouldnt be able to make enough and I don't think the demand would have been there anyway, worldwide or not.

Still, I think your 20M Wii by EoY is still very possible.

Gotta say I respect JL, he knows that the Wii has the potential to shake the very foundations of the gaming industry forever, even though his Wii Fit prediction was off, I still have no doubt it will be huge, possibly one of the biggest selling titles of all time

i think wiifit will end up around 8 million WW. i don't expect it to be bigger than brain training.

Well I always liked your predictions, and I like that you take long shots, but seriously I have to ask, what was with the Wiifit one? What were you thinking? I would honestly like to hear about your thought process for that one because about 2 minutes of thinking would have made it pretty obvious that it could never happen.

John Lucas FTW, Im a big fan, keep it up.

I think my own best case scenario predictions often seem to coincide with your "at least" side of things. although i admit bcak in April/May when no-one was predicting more than 16mil for Wii my best case was only 18mil then, wheras you have kept the 20-24mil for a long time.

'Nuff respect JL

Your predictions are too hard to believe because you never, ever, take manufacturing capacities into consideration.

Wii @ 60m by EOY 2008? That would mean that Nintendo would have to increase production capacities from about 1.8m a month (if thats what they are right now), to an average of 3.33m per month for the entire year . Nintendo has only increased capacities by 80% since the Wii started production in August (or was it July?) of last year.

Wii Fit being able to stock 3.5m units in 1 region for 1 week?

As much as you make bold predictions, which are certainly fine, I just never, ever see the logic in 90% of them. Sure you can use Blue Ocean being some god-mode sort of thing, but even the DS isn't having the kind of succuess that you insinuate the Wii will have next year.

Why are you trying to backtrack and say your Wii Fit prediction is "a partial failure" - is being off by more than 90% a partial failure? Pachter isn't even that bad. I'm just trying to keep you honest, since it *seems* that everyone adores your predictions....I don't.

Can the Wii really sell an average of 1.1m units a week until the end of the year to make your 20m prediction? Doubtful.

Also, TWRoO - go look at the Prediction League for early April. As much as people argue I have "no credability", I was one of the highest predictors of Wii sales by EOY 2007, at 17.5m units.

There were only a handful of people predicting the Wii would do over 17m in April. Out of the 102 users, of the ones that still post here (that I noticed):

Johnlucas (20m)
Zucas (17m)
MrStickball (17.5m)
Erik Aston (20.75m)
Koffieboon (19m)
HappySquirrel (18m)
TheSource (19m)

That was as of late March, or early April.

I also predicted 20 million in that prediction league btw, but I that was the the only time I participated and it was more a guess, I did not look at what sales rate would be needed or something like that.

 EDIT: I just checked the entries in that prediction league and realised that I'm not in there... Probably I messed something up when I wrote down my predictions.

One thing Ive noticed is that John lucas never has a bad word to say about anyone even his so called rivals, but some of his rivals are downright nasty and rude to him. yes you know who you are!