OK, this is gonna be a long reply. Lots of quotes to respond to. Thanks for the compliments, posters. I love this community! I gotta save that pic, Sqrl. Hahahaha!

Right once? I predicted the way this entire generation would fold out before the generation even started. Rubang B & Dolla Dolla can tell you that personally from them seeing me on Joystiq. Remember that "Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming" thread? ( http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254 ) Except for one detail about Sony self-sabotaging (learned a new lesson there) I predicted Microsoft's attitude towards competing with Sony, broke down strengths and weaknesses of all competitors, and saw Wii on top. All this was said before the XBox 360 launched back when most people only saw the 7th gen as a two-horse race between Microsoft & Sony. Nintendo was all but forgotten in most arguments. Check the original newsgroup thread I linked inside that topic to see newsgroup posters mock and ridicule my theories. The same disbelief I get everywhere I make predictions like these.

I made lots of posts in this old group I used to post in called N-Philes.com. I saw Wii breaking countless records and asked the question that did the forum believe this could happen? I was soundly mocked by the majority of the membership. They used to hate me over there. In the end I got banned because ironically they couldn't stand my point of view on Nintendo. Yes, a pro-Nintendo site irritated at someone pro-Nintendo. Weird.

I always said in many places like Kotaku ( http://kotaku.com/commenter/johnlucas/ ) that DS was the litmus test for Wii and that it was assured that Wii was going to be a success. I KNEW and said ad nauseum that Wii was the Future of Gaming. Posters there started getting a kick out of everytime I would say DOMINATION or DOMINATED or something like that in reference to the Wii in the 7th gen. I said Wii would rule from start to finish the whole 7th gen & that's what it's doing.

Here in my first post (search through here http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=672 ) I called the Wii beats XBox 360 in summer & the 20 million all at the same time. I said Wii would end up moving roughly about a million a month and got called stone crazy. I said in January they were in the 4 million range, in February they were in the 5 million range, in March they were in the 6 million range, in April they would be in the 7 million range, May 8 million range, June 9 million range, July 10 million range, August 11 million range, September 12 million range, October 13 million range, November 14 million range, and now it's December & they're in 15 million range headed towards 16 million. Yes, I was right on this one. They moved up a million in the millions columns within each month just like I said.

You say there's nothing to discuss but I offer this. There are 4 full weeks of December to go. The latest tallies only take care of the end of November with a day or two of December mixed in. This big 31 day month is where all the big sales come from. It certainly boosted XBox 360 last year. And Wii's appeal is much greater than the 360. Right now VGChartz has Wii at 15.56 million. All they have to cover is a piddling 4 1/2 million to make my minimum 20 million come true. And they can do that in 4 measly weeks. They can easily 20 million but supply problems are obviously real. That's why I said AT LEAST 20 million. They can easily go beyond. Reggie says they will have serious stock week before Xmas and then think of the pre New Year's week for Japan.

It is a guarantee that Wii will see 20 million by everyone's estimates within December. The worst case is that they pull in that 20 million on the last week of December in which it would not show itself here on charts until 1st week of January. I'm just waiting to cash this check withheld for 9 months.

Many of my predictions are so long-term (minimum 240 million for Wii lifetime for example) that I will have to wait much longer to cash them in but I'm not going anywhere and everything's documented and archived. Wonder what you'll say about me once I start cashing them in.

John Lucas

I think those three excerpts sum up everything about you very nicely.

More replies.

Without a shadow of a doubt—Galaxy. See New Super Mario Bros. for details. Halo 3 currently stands by VGChartz figures at 5.82 million. That is STILL under what some people (not me) call the worst entry in the mainline of the Mario franchise Super Mario Sunshine standing at 5.91 million. Making this figure on the least popular system of the last generation. I loved Sunshine but I love Galaxy even more and so do many others. It's magical AND it's on the most popular system of the 7th gen. It will trickle in sales throughout the lifetime of this system & I wouldn't be surprised if we see 10 million out of Galaxy before it's all said & done. Halo 3 will move units long-term too but it has no chance of besting Galaxy. It will beat Sunshine but it can't touch the hem of Galaxy's garment.

Well the impact of finally successfully merging videogaming & exercise together. All these reports about Wii used in physical rehabilitation and the patients taking to it with much more vigor because it's set up in a game format. There's a recent one now. (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=11533#end ) It's made by Shigeru directly and is a concept he came up with while doing ordinary things much like Pikmin came about due to his gardening. I NEVER sleep on Shigeru. The dude is genius personified. Seeing clips on YouTube. And feedback from people who used it. Imagining me playing it by myself much like I imagined the Wiimote before I got my hands on it by taking my TV remote motioning it around. Understanding the appeal of the Wii Fitness exercises in Wii Sports (I play these nearly everyday). Knowing the appeal to older folks. Knowing the obsessions with losing weight which gets confused with fitness (you can be fat and healthy). The aesthetics and the design. The future potential uses from 3rd parties and perhaps Nintendo themselves (how many have mentioned new kinds FPSs & snowboarding skiing games because of the arrival of the Balance Board?). Knowing it's in the new Wii series franchise alone; it represents the system. The family aspect when you can have multiple people measure themselves against each other; that creates competition in a whole new way. Me testing this idea on people I know who had no interest in Wii even WITH Wii Sports & Co. and them seeming to spark up on Wii once I told them & showed them about Wii Fit.

Lots of stuff. The Fit on the logo is colored in Earth Day Greenpeace green. White background, soft gray Wii, sweetgrass green Fit in wholesome round-contoured italic letters. The fact that it more than anything else will help Nintendo broaden gaming's reach and dispel some of the stigma that videogames are harmful for children's development. Knowing precisely that this game begins the 2nd phase of Nintendo changing the industry to their ends. I always said this first year was the introductory Larval phase. Nintendo's going into Pupa with Wii Fit. To emerge as Butterfly with an industry which bends to Nintendo's designs rather than the other way around. I wonder if Microsoft Scene It coming?

I may have gotten carried away with Japan only because I always wanted to say worldwide but I knew Japan would be all over this like we saw and since the launch was staggered I decided to be dangerous. But worldwide I don't doubt its impact. Right or wrong I put down what was in my brain as it came to me. They tend to come to me in visions. It just struck me one night and I had to put it down for the record. I overlooked E3 2007 this year & only later looked back at the footage. I said how could I have missed this?!?! I was late to the train putting down something for Wii Fit because I knew it was gonna be big. And it will be big. 2008 is gonna be shocking for this title. The moment its benefits are verified truthfully is the moment when Wii opens up new problems or supplying units. This title will change everything. On THAT at least you can go to the bank on that.

John Lucas 

'We can even discuss rivals' predictions to get my opinion on the matter for more debates.'

Okay, let's discuss. This topic may seem hogwash to many, but I know it won't to JL.

You've predicted Wii will sell at least 240m and upwards of 500m lifetime. I've countered that while Nintendo will succeed on making the video game industry to primetime, they'll never be able to meet the demand they've created (this is obvious now and has been since the beginning to anyone who's got real vision). I've predicted this will prompt another major player to jump in and capture a lot of the new market that Wii is leaving behind and Sony/MS will never be truly positioned to capture.

Thoughts JL?

"I'm ready for my closeup, Mr. Demille."

Oy. This thread borders on over-the-top narcissism. Anyway, I'm not going to get into another one of these insane debates with JL. I think he's an intelligent and articulate guy who panders to the lowest common denominator far too often and if he stayed more within reasonable limits and toned down the bravado a bit, his "haters" wouldn't have such a huge problem with his posts.

With that said, there is an enormous potential for this thread to turn into a mudslinging contest. Lets keep it clean, people.

Before the generation there were lots of people predicting crazy things for all systems. Some of them have to be right by coincidence. John Lucas just happens to be one of those. ;>

Can't.... handle anymore... of... this... aarrrrggghhh.

before the Wii launch JL was the only person that said that the Wii will be a big success. everyone said that this prediction is a big failure and that he is stupid.

isn't it really IRONIC that this prediction (with the smallest chance ever) IS CORRECT ?

I'm sorry DKII but there's nothing coincidental about it.  Now I may be bias because I was making those same predictions (but I don't always bother to post them to keep track of my posts when I do like JL does) long before the 7th generation began.   It's simple really and just needs some long term and wide vision.

Back in the days of the Atari 2600, video games were simple and open to everyone.  A stick and a button and a lot of fun.  Didn't matter if you were 9 or 90, boy, girl, whatever, you could play Pac-man, Pong and Space Invaders and have a lot of fun.  It was new but it was accessible to everyone.

However, with each generation, games became more complex, less accessible and attracted a smaller market.  However, the industry got much better at attracting that market so numbers grew.  Numbers also grew as kids playing became adults and Sony wisely targetted them too.

But by the 6th generation it was widely realized in the industry that is was suffering a slow death.  The systems only appealled to 'gamers' (except the PS2 which had the largest variety of 'casual games').  But statisically, the number of people interested in purchasing games and systems was steadily decreasing.  Game variety was decreasing.  Sequels and games that more or less played the same as others were steadily rising, further dewindling the market.

MS initially only sought to increase it's market share of the current market with the 360.  Sony hoped to pull in more people by addin Blu-ray and marketing it as a 'all in one' multi-media hub, must have for the living room.  Nintendo took a step back, or two, and decided to increase market share games needed to become accessible to everyone from 9 to 90 again.  Thus the Wiimote was created.  To see that this would transform the industry and easily win this generation isn't luck.  It's actually a no-brainer IMO.