Actually, that's not ironic.

Why do so many revere JL's one wild prediction that he got right and ignore the many wild ones he got wrong?

One could make a Jim Jones and Kool-Aid joke here but I'm above that. :D 

 How was that a prediction with the smallest chance ever of coming true? The market is not as predictable as many seem to believe, there were few indications that the Wii would be a downright flop.

But anyone with an ounce of common sense should realize that 250-500 million lifetime sales is just... over the top. That is a feat never accomplished by any type of hardware ever as far as I know, not even the most popular cellphones come close to those sales!

I say;

End of '08

Wii: 30-35 million (closer to 35 I think).

360: 22-23 million.

PS3: 18-20 million.

Lifetime:

Wii: 90-95 million.

PS3: 60-70 million.

360: 35-40 million. 

More like I overestimate Nintendo's ability to work out their production issues. Obviously there's been some setback. If things went according to plan we woulda seen 15 million months ago. Japan's slowdown I think is diverting supply to meet demand in other markets.

I just found a doggone article about Nintendo of Europe asking Nintendo of Japan to fly Wiis in!

Nintendo Fly In Extra Wiis To Meet Demand 

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2007/12/03/nintendo-fly-in-extra-wiis-to-meet-demand-86908-20194563/

From what I remember about penny-pinching Nintendo is that they ship their product by...ship! They boat everything from the sea. So going the airship route must mean there's gum in the work making all this stuff.

Record production never seen before in the industry and it's STILL not enough. That says volumes to me. Nintendo has to be smart because they're not wasteful like the other two money wise nor can they afford to be. They are balancing meeting demand without making waste or losing quality in the process. That's not easy to do. Efficiency is how this little company is able to stand up to these big giants and best them. They're not gonna flake out on production standards or flood money into the process to make some short-term success. They're planning for long-range success.

BUT these problems will not last forever. Yes, it's taking longer than I thought for Nintendo to smooth out the kinks but they will smooth them out. Demand...ha, well, demands it. I detail things that will shoot demand for the system out of the atmosphere in that other reviled thread of mine "To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction"

 http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=10909

Wii Fit, Star Wars, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, 3rd party influx, among other things is gonna worsen these problems. Nintendo as we speak is trying to gauge the long-term of how demand will go to adjust their production estimates. They will HAVE to adjust up. No choice, no doubt about it. And they will STILL fall short because games like these all at once will make demand absolutely sickening. Wii Fit alone will do this. Those others on top of it is just making this worse for this system that cannot stay in reasonable supply.

I said many times 2007 is the last year where the competitors seem close. 2008 will have Nintendo leaving the competition in their shadow because of stuff like this. Lots of people continue to underestimate Nintendo. It's been going on for 3 years running now. They doubted the impact of the DS. DS is on top of every market. EVERY market. EVERY market. It is a FULL worldwide dominator. They thought it would fall off after awhile and it hasn't. It's showing strong sales right NOW. There was a thread recently asking about why we forgot about the DS when it was still crushing the all comers including its console brother/sister the Wii. They doubted Nintendo's Revolution, they doubted the Wiimote, they doubted the insane E3 2006 lines, they doubted the legitimacy of the Wii console after launch, they doubt 3rd party's attitude towards it, they doubt its power, they doubt everything and this 3 year running attitude is outdated. This is NOT the Gamecube. It's a whole new era. Once DS took off it was all over because Wii is DS in console form. They operate under exactly the same philosophy. DS is matching lifetime records in half the time in certain countries. GBA was virtually 100% of the market. No real competition. DS has competition and is still matching its handheld predecessor's output in certain regions?? In half the time??

The most fatal mistake anyone can make is not stepping out of how things are now. You could not fathom a console selling 60 million in 1977 or 1982. You could not fathom a console selling 120 million in 1988 or 1994. Wasn't possible back then and if you said anything like this they'd call you looney tunes. You DO have to take history into perspective but you also must step into the DeLorean going 88 MPH to see the future. You must become Marty with the Doc and imagine hoverboards in 2010. Imagine a Club 80s playing Michael Jackson's Beat It with Reagan on the holoscreen. No one can see things that MAY BE if they only focus on how things ARE NOW. Yeah. I guess you DO have to step a little outside reality from time to time. Gotta get metaphysical on the mother. You must weigh the merits of the product and then extrapolate its impact. Your conclusions are the concrete solids you show others that put into form all of this ethereal knowledge. You must condense the vapors so others can get a picture of what you're saying.

So I overshot it. But the worldwide figure may not as off as you think. And let me tell you something about DS. DS inspired the Wii and at bare essentials Wii is DS in console form. BUT you forget input & interface. There's something different about moving a magic pencil with your fingers and moving a magic wand with your whole body involved. This is why Wii is over DS in some territories like moneyhoney USA & friends. Canada is in love with the Wii even more so than USA-ers are. DS can extend itself to PDA capabilities, eBooks, and all kinds of things where you can write info down or type with stylus. But Wii can realize Nintendo's original super console name: The Family Computer. I'm not gonna get into a long history comparing gaming's origins to computers and all that right now but Nintendo sought to create a computer that is more accessible than computers are. There's something refreshing about watching things on your TV screen rather than huddled behind this monitor at your computer station. There's a reason why TV still exists even though things could easily be channeled through computer monitors for shows. You can sit at a couch and relax. It fits the decor of the house. It feels more natural in a household than a computer monitor as the mainline of social gathering.

Wii also with its movement capabilities opens up things DS has no access to things like Wii Fit. Fingers vs. Whole Body. Think about that before you discount the impact of the Wii. In Japan they don't have much space & their culture is designed around on-the-go mass transit commutes. DS & other portables sell like crazy there because of that. They have become eBooks, teaching tools, all kinds of things over there because how Japan's geography and demography is set up. Over here in the Americas where there is much more space movement is a big thing. We are some of the only people in the world who travel just for the hell of it. Sometimes people drive just to think. Driving in some countries is purely a business situation. To go to work and to come home. Maybe to meet distant family. But never for frivolous reasons. We drive everywhere and mass transit is seen as poor man's thing rather than an ecological-minded thing. We use DS differently here which is why it doesn't sell in the same fashion as it does in Japan. Because of our dependence on cars (and the things around it like drive-in fast food) and 'Homer Simpson toilet couch' ease of technology we tend to get fatter and lazier. This is why the diet industry is huge here. Wii moving the body allows people to undo one or both of these traits. Fat doesn't necessarily mean unhealthy but chronic laziness is a problem everybody should fight. I should know I'm one of 'em. How many people park close to the store ALL the time? How many people steal handicap places to get that much closer to the store. How many people just drive up right next to the store in the fire lane and park?

Wii inspires more physical activity. It's tech used to undo the effects of other tech. Me & shams talked about it. Organic tech. Tech made to fit our lives rather than our lives fitting the tech. Tech putting in mind human biological needs. You cannot undercount this. And because this factor will compel more people to pick up the Wii than ever before (momentum builds upon itself) Nintendo is gonna have to satisfy this viral demand. They have succeeded in doing what they did with DS. They had to design the console so that people would see it and want to try it, then want to buy it because of the experience.

Nintendo will once again undershoot but that's because the demand is unprecedented. Nevertheless in the undershooting they will make 60 million worldwide by the end of 2008. 

That's because I didn't backtrack. It is a partial failure because all regions haven't launched. The Japan PART is a failure. The worldwide is not. Have you read the thread I put in that signature? Space is limited. I can't detail every bit of the meaning in one line. And Pachter IS bad. I've seen his comments. But I can't playa-hate the guy. I'd love to have a job where you get paid being wrong or not. Easy gig. Easy money. The boy is gettin' paid.

Nobody said you had to adore my predictions. Don't require you to. At the end of the day I will be the only one will most stand up for my beliefs as anybody else will. Now if people agree and support my views, I wholehearted appreciate each and every bit of the support. It's encouraging to know what you say is having impact and building respect among the community.

You don't have to keep me honest because I have proven to be honest. I don't lie up here. Everything I say you can backtrack and check. I'm known for not changing my stance so how do you get dishonesty out of that.

Can the Wii really sell an average of 1.1m units a week until the end of the year to make my 20m prediction?

You damn right it will.

4 weeks to go. 4.5 million units to sell. It's a no-brainer. Supply shortage or not.

Please stick around, mrstickball. I'm gonna love the look on your face when you see that big 20 besides Wii's name when December's tallies are counted up.

John Lucas 

It's about as "ironic" as my friend who went to George Mason University and is a big fan of their basketball program predicting that the George Mason basketball team would make it to the Final Four in the 2006 tournament... and then they did! 

George Mason won their bracket even though they were ranked 11th out of 16 teams!! 

Obviously my friend is a genius, a visionary.  We should trust any and all predictions he makes about future college basketball games. 

I was reminded of one of my favorite quotes from one of my favorite books, so I made it my sig:

I've never taken John Lucas seriously. He posts infrequently and respectfully enough that I really don't care enough to be bothered or have um... endless discussion about it. I think this thread should be locked, though.

John Lucas, that article about Wiis being shipped by air freight is a very nice find. It seems that the Wii is selling out in more and more European countries, whereas it only used to sell out in UK and perhaps France at times. I'm glad I bought mine a few weeks ago!

Now that's a very good question.

There WILL be another competitor who steps into the arena. I see so strongly that one of our current competitors is gonna drop out of the gaming biz by the end of this generation.

Gaming is a costly business that no one has quite seemed to master other than Nintendo. Why naturally. They designed the engine in the first place since 1985.

Meeting ravenous demand is the best problem any company can have. People would KILL to have this problem. It means your product is on fire and is moving out of your hands like hot potatoes. It's the Michael Jackson's Thriller of game consoles. I lived through the Thriller era & am a big MJ fan so I know this phenomenon well.

Somebody (hopefully not the makers of the Vii) will step into this industry because of Nintendo putting it on another level. This has happened before when Nintendo hit it big with Famicom/NES. All of a sudden here comes NEC with the PC Engine/TurboGrafx 16 and other competitors especially in the 4th/5th gen. My God! The bloat!

But I disagree that the new competitor will be able to steal Nintendo's thunder.

And it's gonna take a giant to do it. Think about it. With all the console/handheld failures from companies all over the 3rd, 4th, & 5th gen, it took giants like Sony and Microsoft to enter and sustain in this business. And STILL they haven't mastered the profit model Nintendo has. Sony has invested 13 going on 14 years in this business and they still haven't mastered how retain revenue into profit like Nintendo has. I always call them companies on green roids. Cash is their performance enhancing drug. Without all that big megabuck cash from companies with alternate business to draw from interally they may not have been successful at this. Microsoft would have died if they weren't Microsoft with that embarrassing $4 billion loss on the old XBox. And they STILL haven't quite recovered a far I know. But they can get away with it being so rich and so entrenched as a virtual computer world monopoly. Sony's gonna pay playing the chicken game with Microsoft. I really see MS putting on the pressure next year to run Sony out of the biz with hardball tactics. They are gonna flex that money power bigger than ever before in the years to come.

See Nintendo's handheld line to understand the difficulty in penetrating what Nintendo can produce. PSP is the best YET. Very admirable that it could stand up to Nintendo's handheld empire but even IT is not selling as many games and I don't know if the system is profitable for them yet. They certainly did not succeed in uprooting Nintendo from its handheld stronghold. I think the PSP lit a fire under Nintendo honestly that resulted in this WiiDS Phenomenon we're seeing now. They saw Sony trying to rub them entirely out of the business and they said "Oh HELL Naw!"

The only real reason Nintendo ever lost console dominance is because they pissed off the 3rd party. And the 3rd party united behind Sony. 3rd party made Sony. I'll say this to the end of my days. 3rd party made Sony and Sony was smart enough and resourceful enough to capitalize on it. This is why 3rd party flaking out on Sony is dangerous. They built their empire around mercenaries. Hahahaha!

Because the business is such that it is hard to make a profit from, hard to sustain R&D costs and ability to wow audiences, hard to balance business acumen with artistic brilliance, it discourages many companies from trying. Look on Wikipedia or any game history website to see all the comers who failed to make a dent in this industry. Cereal companies, toy companies, computer companies, software companies, tech companies, media companies. All kinds trying to step in this business only to leave with tail tucked between their legs.

Consoles only survive because of Nintendo. Without their input this is really an obsolete platform. It would have died out in the 1980s. Gaming "appliances" were designed by Ralph Baer in the 1960s/1970s because tech at that time was at a much different place in people's lives back then. TV & radio was about as far as it went. Personal tech just wasn't as integrated into people's lives back then. Things were woodgrained to match the furniture. They were given radio knobs so people could feel more at ease touching it. You always have to go back to 1972 & understand that time period. Computers were mainframes at universities and special secret hidden governmental things. People still did data the old fashioned way back then on files and cards. As personal computers took hold with the Apple II slowly consoles would lose their relevance because you do all that on a computer and more. This is part of why the Crash of 1983 happened. And no company worldwide dared to step into this thing. Toys R Us of all places didn't even feel like stocking game systems. It was retailer doom and no one in Europe, USA, nowhere was willing to fill the void. They wrote this industry off. It was a dead duck. All except this upstart Japanese company called Nintendo. They restarted this engine and redesigned it in the process. I don't think people understand the significance of that time period and Nintendo's place then and now. It's because they don't understand 1972 on a broader scale. Nintendo worked with Ralph Baer's Odyssey as a distributor in the mid 70s. This inspired them to extend their newly built toy division into videogames.

Because of these origins they understand the truest core of the business. They are at heart a fun company. It started with playing cards made some missteps into "love hotels" (more fun) & such then moved into another fun pastime called toys. From here games came to the fore. They have a special knowledge about this industry. Yamauchi didn't even play games but he understood this industry because of its roots as a company built on fun leisurely entertainment. Tech is a means to an end not the purpose. This is what the other companies don't understand. They focus on the tech more than the fun experience. Fundemental mistake that I see everytime. Tech is the tool to produce fun things. It's the servant not the master. This is why their games are always so top-notch. This is why they could take a chance making something like DS & Wii.

Sega understood this too being a company that sprang from pinball machines in WW2 to entertain American troops stationed there in Japan. But their business acumen was weak which is why eventually they succumbed in the hardware market. Notice how none of the 3rd parties want to start their own console? Square-Enix certainly has a fanbase as does Capcom. Why not EA? It's because they know they couldn't make it as both a software producer AND a hardware producer simultaneously. Sega & Nintendo did this. Atari did this. And did it well. Sony makes hardware but does not understand fully how hardware must stay dynamic. They are approaching it from a general electronics perspective which is their core business and origin. They are approaching it like a VCR or DVD player. A Playstation. An all-purpose "GME" player. Microsoft approaches it from the network/operating system computer mindset. Who was the first to put a hard drive in a gaming console? You really can't change much from your DNA and this is why a company from the outside trying to make it will have difficulty.

Apple tried before with Pippin. I don't think they understand gaming even if they understand sleek machines to play them on. Europe I see would be the next candidate being that that region is so overlooked with releases but PC is strong there. They have to think like Nintendo to offset PC. If they make their system too close to PC they will doom themselves. Gizmondo & N-Gage prove that they don't quite understand the totality of hardware & software simultaneously. Europe barely tried to get into consoles back in the day and with how the industry has grown now I doubt they would try today but that's one place I see a competitor coming from.

It's gonna take big pockets. Could GE or Wal-Mart or even Kroger get into the act? And if they do do they understand how to make both compelling software AND compelling hardware that entices one to play the software? AND can they sustain over multiple generations as a producer? Will commercial interests conflict? Will they understand the delicate balance on the business side of gaming?

Even IF someone pops up as a competitor to this Wii thing I don't think they can touch what Wii's doing. And certainly not enough to make sales formidable enough to be taken seriously. Microsoft as far I can see can come the closest with this Microsoft touch table thing they came up with but neither they nor Sony has become a true 1st party producer of excellence yet. Sony's improving certainly but all the fancy tech in the world will fall apart if the games aren't compelling from in-house. Else you're stuck with the 3rd party as your foundation. And those guys are mercs who are loyal to the highest bidder.

There will most certainly people bringing red blood into the blue ocean but I don't think it will be enough to touch what Nintendo's doing. As far as I'm concerned its impct will match that of a Vii. Some minor sales but only seen as a knockoff. Never a true competitor.

John Lucas

Nice thread JL. You write respectfully, never take potshots at those who disagree, and you put a lot of faith into your arguments.

My favorite part? You admit when you're wrong. That's the big difference between you and other "this console WILL WIN!" sayers out there. You don't enter denial mode when it doesn't work out, you simply admit you were wrong. Heck, you even try to explain why you were wrong.

I admire your bravery and integrity, even though I don't blindly follow every prediction you make.

Much love to you,
Chadius

@JL - Holy crap I feel sorry for your keyboard!!

 The way I see it, you're right and wrong.  Hmmm... I seem to say that a lot.   I totally agree with you that most other competitors don't understand the market and their attempts will fail.  But the gravy train that Nintendo is bringing in will inspire some to try at least.

In the 'WiiFit only sells 135,000' thread I predicted multiple competitors will join, just like the good old days when there were 6-8 consoles on the market.  But the majority of them will be 'Vii's.  Trying to emulate the Wii's success without truly understanding it.  But there are some pretty savy business people out there in the world, and there's a real chance one of them will get it right.

As for following Sony/MS loss-leading strategies, any company that does that is a fool, $$$$ in the bank or not, they'll be creamed.  But it's totally unnecessary.  Nintendo has shown you can take easy to get existing tech, make it fun, make it accessible, make it affordable while profittable and you can have a winner right out of the gate (R&D costs notwithstanding).  It doesn't matter how big a market share they take from the Wii, they'll also be profitable and will also be around for the 8th generation where they'll be much more of a real threat.  Also, Nintendo will leave so much money on the table someone can get quite rich off their 'crumbs'.

Also I don't see software as a huge stumbling block.  Yes, they need to make some games inhouse and they need to be good.  But a lot of software coming out on the Wii (and even PS3/360) aimed at the casual market could easily and quickly be ported to any console that shows real sales growth.  So if they come out by or before late '09 as I predict, they could quickly have an impressive line up of games aimed at this new sector of the market in short time.

Will they 'challenge' the Wii? I said 'Phfft! NO!' then, and I repeat it now. Phfft! NO!  Nintendo will have too much of a headstart, too much excellent exclusive 1st party software and too big a brand to ever be challenged for #1, but that doesn't mean people who can't find one won't settle for the next best thing.  Doesn't mean they couldn't give Sony and MS a real shot for their money for #2 or #3, despite coming in late to the game.  (Now I'm going to get flamed...).  Doesn't mean they won't be a real challenger, if not being a 'threat'.

Good discussion John.