Your predictions are too hard to believe because you never, ever, take manufacturing capacities into consideration.
Wii @ 60m by EOY 2008? That would mean that Nintendo would have to increase production capacities from about 1.8m a month (if thats what they are right now), to an average of 3.33m per month for the entire year . Nintendo has only increased capacities by 80% since the Wii started production in August (or was it July?) of last year.
Wii Fit being able to stock 3.5m units in 1 region for 1 week?
As much as you make bold predictions, which are certainly fine, I just never, ever see the logic in 90% of them. Sure you can use Blue Ocean being some god-mode sort of thing, but even the DS isn't having the kind of succuess that you insinuate the Wii will have next year.
Why are you trying to backtrack and say your Wii Fit prediction is "a partial failure" - is being off by more than 90% a partial failure? Pachter isn't even that bad. I'm just trying to keep you honest, since it *seems* that everyone adores your predictions....I don't.
Can the Wii really sell an average of 1.1m units a week until the end of the year to make your 20m prediction? Doubtful.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
