I think the main point here is the Wii's decline.

In 2009, Wii sales started to show a slight decline. At first, nothing to worry about but that trend grew up gradually. Nintendo called it saturation of the price point (250 euros) and made a price cut to 200 euros in Christmas season. The sales broke records and those who talked about the Wii's decline remained in silence.

In Q1 2010, tens of top quality tittles were launched on PS3 and X360 and the price cut effect disappeared quickly on the Wii sales. The weekly market share was low week after week and the software sales were many times behind competition.

It seems that the high price point in 2009 for the Wii was just an excuse and, in fact, Wii was loosing momentum and the price cut in the last quarter only delayed the true decline. I pointed that but people in general refused to believe in such a thing. They claimed it was just a strong period for PS3 (which had so many great tittles being launched) and Wii would recover with big sellers such as Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Metroid Other M. However, Nintendo was already making a great bundle (Wii Sports Resort Pack) and for the same 200 euros. In my opinion, Nintendo was delaying once more what couldn't be delayed forever.

In Q2 2010, X360 and PS3 continued to receive excellent tittles (not so many and so good as in Q1) but, still, the Wii sales continued to have difficulties to be superior concerning the competition. Super Mario Galaxy 2 was launched and its sales were fantastic but it didn't help much the hardware sales despite the game have been bundled with Wii Sports Resort Pack for 230 euros. In other words, Nintendo created progressively an excellent pack (firstly Wii Sports Resort Pack for 210 euros, then the same for 200 euros, then the same with Mario Galaxy 2 for 230 euros) few months after the first price cut in 3 years of Wii life time, and still, we saw PS3 sales right after Wii sales. Then, X360 Slim was launched and the very low X360 sales were replaced by incredibly high sales. The weekly market share for Wii reached levels I had never seen before during several weeks (until now).

Now, in Q3 2010, we continue to see Wii sales in low levels. And it's interesting to see that HD consoles don't have the release of a big tittle since many weeks. X360 still has the Slim effect and its sales are very high because of that, but what PS3 has? And what PS3 had in the previous week? And in the previous of the previous (and so on)? The latest big seller of PS3 is Red Dead Redemption and it's already on its 12th week. Wii software sales are now much bigger than the competition but it's due to the install base that Wii has. In the future, things will be different (if this trend continues).

The future seems to be even more bright to X360 and PS3 with the release of their Motions (Kinect and Move), 3D technology (on PS3) and a very strong line up of games (first party and third party) in the Christmas season and the first quarter of 2011. Wii seems to me a saturated console while X360 and PS3 are just starting their long period of full strength. I don't know if people already realized that Wii's decline is a fact and that it's not something temporary (but something that was delayed by Nintendo with the price cut and the bundles) but if they don't, they will see that sooner or later. Nintendo can drop once more the Wii price (now to 150 euros) and get high results again, but I think that they will be just delaying the problem once more (and they can't do it forever) and creating another one (consumers will start to think that the Wii price is not stable anymore and their behavior will change to something more similar to what happens with X360 and PS3: many people are always waiting for the next price cut).

I think everyone should wait for the holidays to pass before really passing judgment on the Wii.

It will have a good holiday for sure. What I'm more curious to see is how it fares right before and right after.

c0rd said: GAH! Had a huge response for the bolded typed up, and Vista BSOD's on me. Okay, basically, I think you're wrong. Even if Galaxy 2 and FFXIII were even (they're not, SMG2 being a sequel hurts it big time, look how much hardware it moved in Japan), that's far from the only PS3 game released. I don't actually know why you'd say the PS3 has not had a stellar year so far, when it has had one of its best yet (maybe on par with 08). Check out the top games released in the year so far: 1 Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii) Nintendo 11 3,442,566 3,442,566 2 God of War III (PS3) Sony Computer Entertainment 21 2,848,914 2,848,914 3 Final Fantasy XIII (PS3) Square Enix 34 2,457,191 4,209,436 4 Red Dead Redemption (PS3) Take-Two Interactive 12 2,335,720 2,335,720 5 Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PS3) Electronic Arts 23 1,732,674 1,732,674 6 Heavy Rain (PS3) Sony Computer Entertainment 25 1,392,405 1,392,405 7 MAG: Massive Action Game (PS3) Sony Computer Entertainment 28 886,893 886,893 8 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa (PS3) Electronic Arts 15 833,620 833,620 9 Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City (PS3) Take-Two Interactive 17 782,348 782,348 10 Super Street Fighter IV (PS3) Capcom 15 729,661 729,661 11 BioShock 2 (PS3) Take-Two Interactive 26 715,937 715,937   (~8 more omitted PS3 games)       20 Wii Party (Wii) Nintendo 5 611,062 611,062 22 Monster Hunter Tri (Wii) Capcom 54 560,346 1,555,186 The PS3 games at the top are not only IP's the console has never seen yet, but they're games from all different genres, appealing to all different types of gamers. That is a damn good Jan-Aug lineup, if you'd ask me. The Wii is mainly selling on its old lineup, which was fine early 2009 because Wii Sports / Fit / MK hadn't saturated yet, but... clearly, it has reached its limit as of late. New Super Mario Bros Wii can only take it so far, especially when the HD consoles got its own biggest seller in the same time period (MW2). The Wii's 2010 holiday lineup is great, so its sales should be fine in the Nov-Dec period (assuming the games do well), though if Nintendo has another drought early 2011, I can see the Wii being in (real) trouble. Zelda Wii should end up holding its own better than Galaxy 2, though.

Hrm... this definitely paints an interesting picture for sure. Actually, let's look at each console's top ten sellers of 2010, and see when each game was released!

Wii (1 title released in 2010):

1. Wii Sports (2006)
2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (2009)
3. Wii Fit Plus (2009)
4. Wii Sports Resort (2009)
5. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (2010)
6. Just Dance (2009)
7. Mario Kart Wii (2008)
8. Wii Play (2006/7)
9. EA Sports Active (2009)
10. Maro and Sonic at the Olympic Games (2009)

360 (6 titles released in 2010):

1. Red Dead Redemption (2010)
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (2009)
3. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (2010)
4. Mass Effect 2 (2010)
5. Final Fantasy XIII (2010)
6. Splinter Cell: Conviction (2010)
7. Bioshock 2 (2010)
8. Halo 3: ODST (2009)
9. Assassin's Creed II (2009)
10. Forza Motorsport 3 (2009)

PS3 (7 titles released in 2010):

1. God of War III (2010)
2. Final Fantasy XIII (2009/2010)
3. Red Dead Redemption (2010)
4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (2009)
5. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (2010)
6. Heavy Rain (2010)
7. Assassin's Creed II (2009)
8. God of War Collection (2009/2010)
9. MAG (2010)
10. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (2009)

So it's easy to see that PS3/360's hardware movers have been mostly released this year, while Wii's hardware movers have been from 2009 and even before. So as someone who follows Wii sales, I'm really interested to see how this holiday season (and more importantly, the plethora of potential hardware movers it brings with it) does to the Wii's sales.

I'm not worried about the Wii for the holiday season, but I hope that Nintendo can focus on the console going into the Spring and Summer 2011 seasons as well. Skyward Sword looks great, but the console needs more than that to get more potential buyers to bite.

I'm sorry, but if we're going to start calling Heavy Rain, God of War Collection, MAG, BF: Bad Company 2, Splinter Cell: Conviction and Mass Effect 2 system sellers I find it hard to take your arguments seriously. Is this for real? I suppose the Rayman Racing Rabbids games, Lego games and Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition must have been good system sellers as well then. Red Dead Redemption and FFXIII seem to be the only 2010 titles to have much hardware selling capability at all out of those listed above.

If Red Dead Redemption and Final Fantasy XIII were the only ones moving hardware then why PS3 sales have been very close from Wii sales in the last 2 quarters of this year despite the generous bundles Wii got? What moves hardware (besides price cuts, bundles and new models) is not just 1 title or 2 but many. You should know that.

About the eventual Wii price cut to 150 euros this year, I forgot to say that it won't be a great deal if it'll be only Wii and Wii Sports once at this moment:

Wii and Wii Sports = Mario Galaxy bundle - everything else except Wii and Wii Sports = 230 euros - 50 euros (Super Mario Galaxy 2) - 45 euros (Wii Sports Resort Motion Plus) = 135 euros

Sustained effect from price cut, Slim model, a solid back catalogue and a lot of promising titles on the horizon. Did you honestly think the PS3 hardware would peak at 600 or 400$? Price really, really matters and as the 360 has shown; a Slim remake can have a tremendous effect. There's also the issue of technology, the PS3 is starting to fill in into its clothes with Bly-ray on the rise and a lot more evenly distributed 3rd party support, expansions and downloadable content, trophies etc. All of these factors make a big impact on hardware sales over time, software is just one piece of the puzzle and Nintendo haven't really been doing anything so far this year to expect or deserve huge sales imo. That's their fault, and their fault only.

I know that one title doesn't carry momentum forever but calling the games I mentioned system sellers is silly, not every game that sells in the million figures can be counted as a system seller, especially when compared to games like Final Fantasy, NSMBWii, Modern Warfare 1 & 2 and GTA and other smash hits. By this logic, the Wii should not have lost any momentum since it has by far the highest number of million and 10 million sellers (as shown by the charts many users like to post every now and then to show Nintendomination). The argument has essentially turned from "The Wii has such incredible software that is destroys anything and everything in its wake and the HD consoles are bing trounced like no other" to "The Wii doesn't have enough good software and system sellers but the HD consoles have lots!" (Edit; to clarify; I'm not speaking against my own point here since I believe that the HD consoles have not had a lot of system sellers this year despite a lot of others thinking so). No matter how one looks at it, something has changed in the past year or so and some people seem unable to deal with it just like some were unable to deal with the fact that the killer/savior PS3 title never arrived or that the 360 had a ridiculous hardware failure rate to begin with. What's really going on is a whole lot of members who cannot seem to fathom that Nintendo may very well have forged a double edged sword in the Wii; incredible sales and comet speed towards a tall peak and a rather dramatic fall that follows. It has effectively devastated the competition though, so it really doesn't matter at this point. The real beast this gen is the DS, a fact that many seem to forget for some reason, that things has rockets up its ass and wings like a jumbojet.

All the while all this is going on, I'm sitting here enjoying Starcraft II on the best gaming platform of all time and this gen; the PC.

Last edit; before someone, inevitably, jumps on me for not clarifying; the Wii will win the holiday season easily despite being down yoy. It will probably outsell the closest competitor by 1-2 million in December alone but, like I've mentioned; its the rest of the year that follows and the weeks before the holiday season that will be tell-tale and defining.

"Sustained effect from price cut, Slim model"

Mummelmann, price cut and Slim model appeared at the same time on PS3 and the Wii's price cut happened right after and it created a much bigger impact on Wii. Why should this price cut not have a sustained effect like the one from PS3? It was the first price cut in 3 years that Wii had, so it should have an even more long term effect on sales, don't you think?

"a solid back catalogue and a lot of promising titles on the horizon"

A solid catalogue, agreed. That's the reason. About the titles on the horizon, I have some doubts. PS3 always was a console of promises and that didn't help much. Only when things arrived PS3 raised its sales.

"Did you honestly think the PS3 hardware would peak at 600 or 400$? Price really, really matters and as the 360 has shown; a Slim remake can have a tremendous effect."

I don't understand what this has to do with what I said.

"There's also the issue of technology, the PS3 is starting to fill in into its clothes with Bly-ray on the rise"

Good point. Maybe you're right. However, the past proved many and many times that games are what matters to gamers. And those who buy a PS3 just to watch movies in Blu-ray, well, they are few because, even with more than 5M consoles sold, X360 can't sell more games than PS3 (see the last weeks: they're on par).

"and a lot more evenly distributed 3rd party support, expansions and downloadable content"

Titles. That's my point. PS3 and X360 are gaining momentum due to their catalogues: an always strong first party support and a growing third party support. These consoles have much future, unlike Wii.

"trophies etc."

Trophies? Explain me that please. How the trophies make PS3 sales to be almost at the same level of Wii sales?

"All of these factors make a big impact on hardware sales over time, software is just one piece of the puzzle"

Third party support, expansions, downloadable content and trophies are software. These aspects, all together, seem to be a very big piece of your puzzle.

"and Nintendo haven't really been doing anything so far this year to expect or deserve huge sales imo. That's their fault, and their fault only."

I have to disagree. Nintendo isn't doing less than in the previous years: Wii Play and Wii Sports in 2006; Super Mario Galaxy in 2007; Super Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit in 2008; New Super Mario Bros Wii in 2009; Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Wii Party in 2010. Do you see a different trend? I think the only fault Nintendo has was creating a console that was not prepared for the future.

"I know that one title doesn't carry momentum forever but calling the games I mentioned system sellers is silly"

I think that it's as silly as calling any other title "system seller". One game can't move hardware, no matter how important it is. Only several games, a trend, a revolution can do such a thing. And then you'll see that even games with minor importance help to make the difference. And, in that point of view, you can call them system sellers. Otherwise, you cannot call any game a system seller (maybe Wii Fit can be an exception).

"By this logic, the Wii should not have lost any momentum since it has by far the highest number of million and 10 million sellers"

No, X360 has more million sellers than Wii and PS3 is close. And, considering the games that sold less than 1M but have still good numbers, X360 and PS3 have a very strong line up. Moreover, you have to take into account that old games doesn't have so much impact as new launches. I'm almost shure that there are more people buying Wii because of New Super Mario Bros Wii than because of Mario Kart Wii. Don't you think the same?

"The argument has essentially turned from "The Wii has such incredible software that is destroys anything and everything in its wake and the HD consoles are bing trounced like no other" to "The Wii doesn't have enough good software and system sellers but the HD consoles have lots!""

That's not my sentence. My sentence is: The Wii doesn't have much more to show and its biggest guns for the future are more of the same while PS3 and X360 are in an excellent strength and their future is bright and with many new things to show.

"No matter how one looks at it, something has changed in the past year or so and some people seem unable to deal with it"

What do you think that has changed?

"What's really going on is a whole lot of members who cannot seem to fathom that Nintendo may very well have forged a double edged sword in the Wii; incredible sales and comet speed towards a tall peak and a rather dramatic fall that follows."

I don't buy your logic because:

1 - Wii started at a very low price (250 euros) and its sales were high since the beginning but it only got huge sales in 2007 and 2008 (they raised gradually).

2 - The Wii domination was long, stable and enough to define the console as the standard of the market of this generation (the console that the consumers that follow the others buy), like PS2 was in the last generation. What Wii coudn't be was to be the standard of the industry. Third party developers continued to work mainly on PS3, X360 and PC, and this became the standard of the industry. Now, this standard is growing even more and the market is changing. Maybe Wii will loose its privileged place.

3 - Wii sales won't fall dramatically. Something with so much good sales during so much time won't end quickly. It will continue to decline but the level of its sales will continue to be high (at least, until 2012).

However, you seem to agree with me and accepting that Wii is declining.

"It has effectively devastated the competition though, so it really doesn't matter at this point."

What do you mean? Sales from now on don't matter because Wii had huge sales in the past? I disagree. Wii to end with 50% of market share or 35% makes a world of difference. And I think it's still possible for Wii to lose the war to X360 or PS3.

"the Wii will win the holiday season easily despite being down yoy. It will probably outsell the closest competitor by 1-2 million in December alone but, like I've mentioned; its the rest of the year that follows and the weeks before the holiday season that will be tell-tale and defining."

I'm not sure about that. Let's see what Kinect and Move can do. And previously (on March of this year, I think) I predicted the Wii total market share to go down to levels between 47% and 45%. This prediction is still on track (and more than ever) and it's compatible with a winning winter for the Wii (maybe 35% of market share, which is not much comfortable).

What's wrong with the argument? Do you think the X360 or PS3's console sales would have been as high as it is if its lineup were as bare as the Wii's the past two years?

What has changed is the fact that the main Wii drivers - Sports, Fit, and Mario have been hitting their saturation point. Interest in these games obviously won't last forever, and since the Wii has gotten so few actual system sellers in nearly 2 years (no, not Galaxy 2, but NSMB Wii), sales have dropped off. The holiday lineup will slow Wii's steady decline, though to remain steadier YoY they'll need another phenomenon (like if, say, Vitality is half as popular as Wii Fit).

I just don't understand your reasoning behind thinking the Wii is destined for this dramatic fall, like nothing can save it. And it's not like you have any proof of your own, to accuse people of just being in denial.

As for the 360 / PS3 front, nothing has changed. 3rd parties continue to do what they've been doing, releasing big budget games. Top this off with console price cuts / redesigns to entice interest, and the consoles continue to do well. That's really Nintendo's only problem - third parties not supporting their system means they're forced to do everything on their own. This seems to work fine for handhelds, since people only need a couple games for them (hence a handful of quality Nintendo games is enough, and DS never stops selling), but people demand far more games for their home consoles. It means Nintendo needs to pump out multiple Wii Sports / Fit / MK / NSMB caliber system sellers every year, which is no easy task...

edit: I'm busy with Starcraft II as well. Is why I'm not around nearly as often...

I'm curious too, but I'm sure that for its very nature Wii will be 1st for Xmas as usual.

When I happen to see girls, mothers and daughters shopping for games, they only search DS and Wii shelves (once  they searched PSOne, PS2 and GB ones, but there weren't mothers too back then). And Wii and DS are the only consoles that don't worry moms.

Amongst females, hardcores are rarer, so being more casual their purchases will intensify more for Xmas, and they are a big strong point for Ninty that we often underestimate.