"Sustained effect from price cut, Slim model"
Mummelmann, price cut and Slim model appeared at the same time on PS3 and the Wii's price cut happened right after and it created a much bigger impact on Wii. Why should this price cut not have a sustained effect like the one from PS3? It was the first price cut in 3 years that Wii had, so it should have an even more long term effect on sales, don't you think?
"a solid back catalogue and a lot of promising titles on the horizon"
A solid catalogue, agreed. That's the reason. About the titles on the horizon, I have some doubts. PS3 always was a console of promises and that didn't help much. Only when things arrived PS3 raised its sales.
"Did you honestly think the PS3 hardware would peak at 600 or 400$? Price really, really matters and as the 360 has shown; a Slim remake can have a tremendous effect."
I don't understand what this has to do with what I said.
"There's also the issue of technology, the PS3 is starting to fill in into its clothes with Bly-ray on the rise"
Good point. Maybe you're right. However, the past proved many and many times that games are what matters to gamers. And those who buy a PS3 just to watch movies in Blu-ray, well, they are few because, even with more than 5M consoles sold, X360 can't sell more games than PS3 (see the last weeks: they're on par).
"and a lot more evenly distributed 3rd party support, expansions and downloadable content"
Titles. That's my point. PS3 and X360 are gaining momentum due to their catalogues: an always strong first party support and a growing third party support. These consoles have much future, unlike Wii.
"trophies etc."
Trophies? Explain me that please. How the trophies make PS3 sales to be almost at the same level of Wii sales?
"All of these factors make a big impact on hardware sales over time, software is just one piece of the puzzle"
Third party support, expansions, downloadable content and trophies are software. These aspects, all together, seem to be a very big piece of your puzzle.
"and Nintendo haven't really been doing anything so far this year to expect or deserve huge sales imo. That's their fault, and their fault only."
I have to disagree. Nintendo isn't doing less than in the previous years: Wii Play and Wii Sports in 2006; Super Mario Galaxy in 2007; Super Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit in 2008; New Super Mario Bros Wii in 2009; Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Wii Party in 2010. Do you see a different trend? I think the only fault Nintendo has was creating a console that was not prepared for the future.
"I know that one title doesn't carry momentum forever but calling the games I mentioned system sellers is silly"
I think that it's as silly as calling any other title "system seller". One game can't move hardware, no matter how important it is. Only several games, a trend, a revolution can do such a thing. And then you'll see that even games with minor importance help to make the difference. And, in that point of view, you can call them system sellers. Otherwise, you cannot call any game a system seller (maybe Wii Fit can be an exception).
"By this logic, the Wii should not have lost any momentum since it has by far the highest number of million and 10 million sellers"
No, X360 has more million sellers than Wii and PS3 is close. And, considering the games that sold less than 1M but have still good numbers, X360 and PS3 have a very strong line up. Moreover, you have to take into account that old games doesn't have so much impact as new launches. I'm almost shure that there are more people buying Wii because of New Super Mario Bros Wii than because of Mario Kart Wii. Don't you think the same?
"The argument has essentially turned from "The Wii has such incredible software that is destroys anything and everything in its wake and the HD consoles are bing trounced like no other" to "The Wii doesn't have enough good software and system sellers but the HD consoles have lots!""
That's not my sentence. My sentence is: The Wii doesn't have much more to show and its biggest guns for the future are more of the same while PS3 and X360 are in an excellent strength and their future is bright and with many new things to show.
"No matter how one looks at it, something has changed in the past year or so and some people seem unable to deal with it"
What do you think that has changed?
"What's really going on is a whole lot of members who cannot seem to fathom that Nintendo may very well have forged a double edged sword in the Wii; incredible sales and comet speed towards a tall peak and a rather dramatic fall that follows."
I don't buy your logic because:
1 - Wii started at a very low price (250 euros) and its sales were high since the beginning but it only got huge sales in 2007 and 2008 (they raised gradually).
2 - The Wii domination was long, stable and enough to define the console as the standard of the market of this generation (the console that the consumers that follow the others buy), like PS2 was in the last generation. What Wii coudn't be was to be the standard of the industry. Third party developers continued to work mainly on PS3, X360 and PC, and this became the standard of the industry. Now, this standard is growing even more and the market is changing. Maybe Wii will loose its privileged place.
3 - Wii sales won't fall dramatically. Something with so much good sales during so much time won't end quickly. It will continue to decline but the level of its sales will continue to be high (at least, until 2012).
However, you seem to agree with me and accepting that Wii is declining.
"It has effectively devastated the competition though, so it really doesn't matter at this point."
What do you mean? Sales from now on don't matter because Wii had huge sales in the past? I disagree. Wii to end with 50% of market share or 35% makes a world of difference. And I think it's still possible for Wii to lose the war to X360 or PS3.
"the Wii will win the holiday season easily despite being down yoy. It will probably outsell the closest competitor by 1-2 million in December alone but, like I've mentioned; its the rest of the year that follows and the weeks before the holiday season that will be tell-tale and defining."
I'm not sure about that. Let's see what Kinect and Move can do. And previously (on March of this year, I think) I predicted the Wii total market share to go down to levels between 47% and 45%. This prediction is still on track (and more than ever) and it's compatible with a winning winter for the Wii (maybe 35% of market share, which is not much comfortable).
