I'm gonna make a prediction right now that the 3DS will be the PS2 on steroids.

It's already getting:

- The great DS/DSi library

- The Wiiware library for great gaming classics

- Remakes/ports of great N64 classics

- Remakes/ports of great PSX/PS2 classics

Will probably be getting:

- Remakes/ports of great GC/XBox/Dreamcast classics

- Great new IPs and new iterations of EVERY major 1st and 3rd party franchise in the world

Every big 3rd party developer is bending over and asking Nintendo to allow them to develop for the 3DS. What the devs want is one console/handheld future, they'll flock to the 3DS, the iphone/android will still get some smallish games, but all the major games will be on the 3DS. 

If there is a PSP2, Sony should scrap it right now.

Eh, what?  Microsoft doesn't make their own CPUs either, yet they had no problem contracting IBM for a decent multicore chip.  That's more or less what you can expect for Nintendo to do next cycle.

And it doesn't matter if Nintendo doesn't have the "engine" already in place for multicore threaded R&D, that's something they'll develop and there's no doubt we'll see 3rd party solutions adapted like crazy early on (Unreal Engine 3/4, MT Framework, Crystal Tools, Anvil, RAGE, etc, Aska, etc).  It's not like costs won't need to be sunk in again around the industry for PS4 and Xbox 3 as well.

I tend to agree, 3rd parties will push more for multiplatform in the console space (partly because PSP's been such a nonstarter too), but exclusives aren't exactly a thing of the past and all it would take is a system to secure a PS2-like early lead and we'd likely see a similar R&D landscape.  The thrust to multiplatform on HD is in part because of the high costs, but it's equally in part to no HD platform providing the sort of userbase PS2 had to ensure a strong ecosystem for "ground up" games.  This is actually why I think we'll see Nintendo with "Wii 2" or whatever late next year, they're going to try and "3DS" the competition...

I tend to think Wii2 to PS3 will be similar to 3DS to PSP spec wise... a clear improvement, but not exactly a generational one.  I also expect Wii2 to preempt the cycle and launch probably a year or more before Xbox 3 and PS4 though (say Q4 2011 versus Q4 2012 or later), and I also expect the latter to be less of a bank-breaking generational shift than 360/PS3 were.  Micrsoft and Sony don't seem to be in any hurry to go next generation, their massive losses and frankenstien Wii-too add-ons are proof enough of that.

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Eh, what?  Microsoft doesn't make their own CPUs either, yet they had no problem contracting IBM for a decent multicore chip.  That's more or less what you can expect for Nintendo to do next cycle.

And it doesn't matter if Nintendo doesn't have the "engine" already in place for multicore threaded R&D, that's something they'll develop and there's no doubt we'll see 3rd party solutions adapted like crazy early on (Unreal Engine 3/4, MT Framework, Crystal Tools, Anvil, RAGE, etc, Aska, etc).  It's not like costs won't need to be sunk in again around the industry for PS4 and Xbox 3 as well."

where do you think a big expense cam from..Multi-core developement is not cheap because of just the hardware it's because of the game engine's have to be built from the ground up..and you mention 3rd party solution's adapt like crazy?

these multi-core game engine's are also for next generation.

they are not going to waste New development cost's sunk into the next hardware revision in any major way. there will be some investment but not nearly as much as it was this generation.

what do you think they did this generation...The replacement for the Wii is going to be late to the multi-core CPU/GPU party

not even how well the Wii has done is going to force them to just disreguard the other platform's..

that's the Main problem Multi-core has it's expensive in man power and Time.

Something Of which Nintendo does not Care much for.

the main problem is many of the chip make's have gone completely with Multi-core so Nintendo can go single core easy like this generation, but many developer's would have multi-core game engine's that they do not want to waste.

or Nintendo goes with Multi-core but developement is more expensive and they get the same treatment as the other system's.

this is not like previous generation's Multi-core development changed that landscape for good.

3rd party's are not going to leave out the PC, PS4, XBOX3 for just one platform not when the majority of CPU's are all being produced Multi-core.

and Nintendo is not in any hurry also

the economy we have now made sure of that. this generation is most likely going to last longer than many people think. None of them are in a hurry to start a new generation..the Wii print's money remember.

Uh what?  The biggest expenses aren't at all programming, and they haven't been since the 8bit days.  The costs that actually ballooned this generation have to do with art and assets... it's not the fancy threaded engines and complex physics kits that are massively driving up R&D costs, it's the 1080p texture work and 100k poly models and the army of artists you have to hire/outsource to make them.  That's why technologies like Mega/Virtual-texturing and other procedurally generated techniques are so attractive to id, Epic and others in the tech business, because they'll massively slash art costs.

Nintendo's literally going to be at no disadvantage here.  In fact, they'll benefit engine wise from all the matured work and know how 360/PS3 demanded in the 3rd party development community.  Your argument here is literally backwards.

See that's where I think you're wrong.  Nintendo might be a worldwide company, but they always base their moves off Japan.  And Japan's in dire need of a Wii refresh or replacement.

I think you can also look to their internal R&D for clues, the only new announcement there at E3 was Zelda, and the rest of EAD/SPD is firmly focused on 3DS after Wii Party and Metroid wrap this summer.  That tells me they're winding Wii down inhouse, and that also tells me we can probably expect the next Wii in 2011... which would also perfectly match the 5 year cycle Nintendo's had for consoles the past 2 decades.  Nintendo's approach to Wii2 is going to mirror 3DS, exactly like Wii mirrored DS.

those artist's are not just only main expense, you have sound, production, and yes programming..and the entire team has to program that in. than quite a bit of testing all of which cost money. than cost is replication. packageing. etc. it's all a big effort.

no disadvantage yes they are developer's only had to work on a single core 800Mhz no doubt and that's quite simple vs' 3 or 8 core system's in getting code to run correctly. never mind the fact that the single core development cycle is pretty much to an end. thus if you are not developing on multiple core you have a learning curve.

so no disadvantage here for the Wii replacement maybe not for Nintendo, but for 3rd parties it may even though the Processor's have all been power PC this generation Nintendo may change which processor design. thus if they have no engine built the 3rd party would have to licence or built one. if they do what's the chances of the engine not working on the other system's?

that's the point next generation all the system's will be multi-core this was when Nintendo did not go, next generation Nintendo may have no choice unless they want more 3rd party support like Sony, Microsoft and the PC industry get's the PROBLEM is Most if not all 3rd PARTY developer's are mainly develop Hardcore game's for the PC this generation was a first where the PS3 and the XBOX360 can get game's that only the PC would have got.

in order to be in the same area for a robust system the Wii will have to be over a 1Ghz processor if not more with multiple core's because very many chip maker's are not making anything less.

thus the price would go up ..the next replacement for the Wii may be as much as $300.00

Planning and audio costs are virtually unchanged from last generation, especially for high production titles.  The main R&D increases this gen are in art and programming, and it's like an 9:1 split.  Art costs are insane this gen, and for most devs middleware solutions have blunted significant programming costs.

And most "hardcore" devs made PC games before this gen?  I'm sure that's news to Kojima, Mikami, Suda, Kamiya, Nagoshi, Itadaki, etc. lol.

And actually, an over 1GHz $299 Wii 2/HD/WiFi/whatever is more or less what I'm expecting.  I mean Wii was already 729 Mhz and $249, neither is actually that big an increase (I'd expect over 3GHz at the least really).  And rest assured, Nintendo's likely sticking with IBM (and PPC).  Unlike Sony or MDS, they seem to actually care about backwards compatibility. ;)

I would disagree that Nintendo will launch before Sony and Microsoft. Right now, it's a game of ignorance. They think they can tap into the expanded audeince (which neither of them will) and Sony thinks that 3D is the wave of the future (like Blu-Ray was). Both will learn fast that they can't get into the expanded market, and there is no where left to go. They are in a box. One or both of them will implode, killing sales for the system (very likely the 360). I expect Microsoft, like with the 360, will be quick to release a new system to one up Sony. Sony will be reluctant to go because they think there is a 10 year life cycle. They will eventually get it and jump. Nintendo will not release a new system until Sony does (they do everything to beat out Sony, even making the 3DS). Nintendo will try to release before they do.

I expect it to go like this

• Microsoft launches first.
• Sony resist, but is eventually wormed out
• Nintendo jumps in once they think Sony has biten

So: Microsoft>Nintendo>Sony.