based on current trend's that's most likely never going to happen because 3rd party exclusives are less and less likely unless you incentive them.

it's I think a pipe dream of old to get that complete 3rd party exclusivity anymore simply because it's not worth to just go one platfor unless their's an incentive.Even if you have the largest market share among the game console's the other's still have plenty of install base you would have to pass anyway. which still would take atleast a year or two. which by that time they may have released one new system of their own. consider this

say dintendo does release early..say 2011 there is still more Wii's on the market than that Wii replacement. now what will it offer over the current Wii?

if you notice there will not be much but higher graphic's and maybe a better online structure.

what price point will it be at $300.00 pretty much inline with both the xbox360 or the PS3 the Nintendo product's are not going to get a sizable jump in the technology front over these already on the market with out costing the consumer more money. Nintendo has alway's went the LOW end. if they went the High end it would be exciting to say the least. but i very much doubt it.

that still leaves the :

PC

the XBOX360

Playstation 3

an nintendo's very own Wii all still on the shelf.

the 3RD party developer's are not going to leave the previous generation system's out in the cold for only one system esp. since the other's have healty sale's.

but lets say for sake of argument

the Wii replacement will be worth more than the current Wii, but not as much as the xbox360 or the PS3 because the hardware is expensive ands even now in order to be near the tech. it's going to cost Nintendo some money .

the Wii is still selling fantastic.

the point is were almost at sturation point for total system's in the market Retail space is so small. so this say take's over the space of the PSP..right.

So now sony has little to no space for their PSP. that still does not take away from the fact that the Wii will still be taking up quite a bit of space of it's own.

no one is going to walk into Walmart and see only Nintendo system's esp. when both the xbox360 and the PS3 are haveing strong sale's. the Wii's replacement I would say is not going to be released next year. i doubt even in 2012 also.

the time of the single one system dominance is pretty much over. in game console's Microsoft is a very strong system slaes on the market and now sony has built the PS3's lossed market share back some of what it lost. it still lost quite a bit but that's a whole other topic.

Okay, you're not following... the reason exclusives are fewer and farther between, and usually need to be bought, is precisely because no console amassed a PS2 like lead (ie: huge AND early).  Wii2 could do that if it's handled right, and I think Nintendo's going to try...

I also really have no idea what differentiating factor Wii2 will sport, but I'm sure there'll be something. And again, 3DS is somewhat telling as it's not only done that but also incorporated basically everything PSP had over DS originally... expect Wii2 to do the same with 360/PS3 (HD, voice-chat, Blu-ray, etc).  But really, you're wrong about Nintendo never going hi-spec... Wii's quite literally the first console where they've held back in that regard (well, Famicom too arguably).

And really, Q4 2011 basically makes the most sense imo.  A 5 year cycle for Wii seems perfect, and Nintendo already moving on from Wii internally (and 3rd parties never really showed up)... I know some don't like to hear it (MS and Sony likely included, they want to hold on as long as possible), but Wii 2 really is on the horizon and it is going to jumpstart next gen...

my point is so what if it does...ythe point you overlooking is in order for it to gain that market share these system's would have to just pretty much stop selling for that to happen..the xbox360 had over a 10 million lead, but yet the PS3 still had most of the exclusive's as the XBOX360.

UNLESS NINTENDO does what Sony have and Microsoft has 3RD party esp. the Publisher's are going to make every thing multiple platform..there is just more money in it.

you have to give these 3RD party's an incentive largest install base or no largest install base the day's of the 3RD party Exclusive is very much over with.

that's not going to change GTA 4 sold how much cross platform, FF13 sold how much multiplatform?

think about this the Wii replacement is going to have motion control's?

are they going to leave the origional Wii out in the cold?

the many people that has bought the Wii many casual's are still happy with what the Wii offer's they are in no hurry to upgrade because it's still being purchased at a record pace.

Uh, a 10m lead is nothing (and 360 didn't even have that really), PS2 had an over 20m lead against GC/Xbox.  That's what I mean when I say "PS2-like".   If Wii had launched a year before 360, rather than a year later, it would've had that too.

GTA4 sold less than San Andreas, FFXIII sold less than FFX.  Like I said, for 3rd parties, 360 & PS3 < PS2.

And no, Nintendo's not going to "leave Wii in the cold".  I expect their 2011/2012 Wii lineup will look much like their current and next year DS lineup... a few big titles, 2nd party collabs and maybe a 3rd party pick up or too (hello Dragon Quest).  But internal support will be predominantly shifted to next gen.

Well the 3DS is trully more then what I was expecting. If Sony wants to have any chance in the handheld market they need to seriously step up the game. Im starting to get worried, that they might just abandon the portable line altogether and only focus on the PS3 :|

Interesting you say that, and that is going with "Step up your game" as their ad campaign slogan for the PSP.

In regards to all this, we need to check the price point on the 3DS before people can comment here.  I would say $200, but don't know.  We also don't have a price point either.  But, assuming Nintendo gets things to take off as they should, this is an issue for Sony.

The PSP is part of the Playstation brand.  Sony ending up being made irrelevant in the handheld market costs momentum for the Playstation brand as Sony's brand for gaming.  Them losing to Nintendo, and then being forced to drop out of the handheld market, is not a good place for Sony to be in.  Sony is not able to use the top dog bully position it had, with the PS2, and use it FUD customers regarding what Nintendo does in ANY area.  Nintendo then locks down the handheld market, with only Apple left.  And then in the home market, Sony has issues to.  It can say it is "futureproof", and the leader.  But all it seems like is that it is a high end product and not the top product.   And then, with the 3DS doing real well,  Sony doesn't even control the 3D area in the videogames.   Sony is then seen as too early to the market with everything.  Then we can talk about this being "Dreamcast".

how is it an issue for sony more than any other company..you cannot dreamcast something if they do not release it. this post is more about if sony would stay in the handheld market at all more than anything.

Sony sold 50 million plus system's that is more than the dreamcast ever sold.

so the problem for sony is quite simple. Move the playstation portable to the Smartphone arena

sony would not have to release a "dedicated game handheld" because frankly you only need one handheld anyway.

if the Smartphone can be used to play some great game's and the technology is already with dedicated gpu's in cellphone's why would you have to go into the "DEDICATED HANDHELD GAME SYSTEM MARKET" where the overwelming choice has been an most likely will still be Nintendo.

change the PSP's market would allow for it to compete with Nintendo indirectly instead of head on.

that's what the Iphone is exactly doing right now. by some people's opinion

"http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/03/sony-uxp-for-android/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed: wired/index (Wired: Index 3 (Top Stories 2))

this recent partnership with Google is a stong indicator that's exactly what they are going to do.

obvious, android core on a PSP/smartphone/pda/8mpx camera. the thing is probably they dont have a deal yet if sony will be able to keep the games for sony systems only and distribution.

actually many of components are cellphone components sony already have a deal for yet to be released mobile GPU

Again, it depends entirely on how the market plays out.  If Wii2 manages an early PS2-like huge lead, Nintendo will get a ton of defacto exclusive content (like PS2 did).  If the market simply fractures like PS3/360, we'll see 99% multiplatform R&D (again, like PS360).

3DS is basically taking a PS2-like approach, I expect Wii2 will as well.  It might work out, it might not, but I think that's very much the direction we're headed...