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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 could statistically surpass 360, may 2011--Jan. 2012

Ssliasil said:
All of you that are arguing or debating with me are only looking at the Minimum time fram i set, May 2011...key word MINIMUM!!!!

This was all the way back in the freaking OP, so i DID take into account the Holiday/slim sales as giving it a boost and extended the timeframe by many months cause the PS3 Sales will OBVIOUSLy slow down.

it is inevitable that PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 before Q2 2012 unless something REDICULOUSLY dramatic occurs and PS3 just dies...it will take a whole hell of alot more than natal to prevent that from happening.

You mean like 360 Slim + Price Cut + Crazy Blockbuster games to match Sony's Lineup + Natal + new XBL features and the fact that Sony probably won't see a price cut this year and that Natal will be more popular than Move?



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Your calculations are correct, the PS3 could overtake the 360 worldwide in that timeframe.

That being said, your calculations are meaningless. What you are doing is taking a small sample size that is not representative of the way this gen has played out, and then extrapolating a direct line out from the current trajectory. There is no evidence to suggest that this trend will continue beyond the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, in fact the ONLY solid evidence we do have is that it will NOT continue. Every year since the PS3 launched there has been a paradigm change around Q4 of the year, this is a fact. Also, your hypothesis depends on the fact that no factors change from now until then, and one of the facts we do know is that both companies will be launching potential game changing peripherals this fall, based on what is called the "disruptive technology" of the Wii, so we know for a FACT that a factor WILL change. So yes it could happen, but anyone can tell you that, everyone can see that the PS3 is selling more than the 360 right now. But that means nothing in regards to knowing what will happen.



^^ That was an extremely one sided post man, if anything Move will be more successful than Natal due to its familiarity and realistic capabilities...your forgetting GT5 which will sell many many many many PS3's, the Japanese will eat PS3's for breakfast when move releases...FFVersus XIII will have a profound effect, especially in japan and the fact that its EXCLUSIVE and Final Fantasy (people flock)

and your other points are freaking stupid, there is no Confirmed or half confirmed Xbox Slim or and kind of freaking pricecut so that argument is mute and useless, dont even bring it up again...And you dont think PSN will get updates along side XBL?

Hell Microsoft announced Facebook and twitter ect far before Sony did and sony released those features far before Microsoft.

man...



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Ssliasil said:
Hell Microsoft announced Facebook and twitter ect far before Sony did and sony released those features far before Microsoft.

man...

I was only copying your mantra.  One sided seems to be what you like.

Also, What are you talking about?  Facebook and Twitter were available on Xbox 360 well before PS3.  In fact, Twitter STILL isn't available on PS3 and Facebook isn't either for that matter.  Only the Facebook status updater thing.



CommonMan said:
Your calculations are correct, the PS3 could overtake the 360 worldwide in that timeframe.

That being said, your calculations are meaningless. What you are doing is taking a small sample size that is not representative of the way this gen has played out, and then extrapolating a direct line out from the current trajectory. There is no evidence to suggest that this trend will continue beyond the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, in fact the ONLY solid evidence we do have is that it will NOT continue. Every year since the PS3 launched there has been a paradigm change around Q4 of the year, this is a fact. Also, your hypothesis depends on the fact that no factors change from now until then, and one of the facts we do know is that both companies will be launching potential game changing peripherals this fall, based on what is called the "disruptive technology" of the Wii, so we know for a FACT that a factor WILL change. So yes it could happen, but anyone can tell you that, everyone can see that the PS3 is selling more than the 360 right now. But that means nothing in regards to knowing what will happen.

This.



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*smack Forehead*

See now your not even worth arguing with.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Ssliasil said:
All of you that are arguing or debating with me are only looking at the Minimum time fram i set, May 2011...key word MINIMUM!!!!

This was all the way back in the freaking OP, so i DID take into account the Holiday/slim sales as giving it a boost and extended the timeframe by many months cause the PS3 Sales will OBVIOUSLy slow down.

it is inevitable that PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 before Q2 2012 unless something REDICULOUSLY dramatic occurs and PS3 just dies...it will take a whole hell of alot more than natal to prevent that from happening.

It would take nothing dramatic to keep the 360 in second place until well into 2012.  There would have to be something fairly dramatic for the PS3 to take second place during 2011 though.



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Speaking of which why the hell are you all arguing with me in the first place?

Did i not state in the OP

"Baring any pricecuts, releases, ect"

?
?
? your just double stating my words with a twist.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

nightsurge said:
thismeintiel said:
@ nightsurge

I'm not going to qoute for the sake of web space. But anyway, your logic is completely flawed. So the 360 will never get a pricecut because it will only be replacing sku's? And yet the price will somehow be CUT to $200, eventually? How does that even make sense? The truth is any logical person, as well as the average consumer, will see the subtraction of $100 as a price cut. Only the "fanboys" use the sku argument to make it seem like the ball was always in Sony's court to soften the blow of the PS3 outselling 360 ever since BOTH pricecuts.

And obviously $300 is a sweet spot for the PS3, as it's been selling well since dropping to that price. However, you are right. $200 will be an even bigger sweet spot.

Also, what's with your flawed prices for the Move and Natal bundles? The standalone bundle for Move will be LESS than $100. I'm guessing $80-$90. Why would Sony bundle it with a PS3 for the same or more for the standalone? The point of a bundle is to SAVE money, not spend the same or more. So at most, the Move bundle will be $350, and that's without a PS3 pricecut. And Natal bundled in an Elite for only $250. Yea, ok. If they do a pricecut, the standalone Elite will be $250. So how much with Natal? Well, let's not forget how much MS likes to price their accessories higher than what they normally cost for their PC counterparts, as well as the fact that MS has been pushing Natal as a revolutionary device with new tech. So, I'm guessing that Natal by itself will be $80-$100, if not higher. So the bundle will be AT LEAST $300.

There's clearly no arguing with you.  You can only see one outcome.  I wish people on VGC weren't so narrow minded, but I guess VGC is mostly PS fan dominated so I shouldn't be surprised.  I mean, where were you back in 2008?  Were you as narrow minded and short sighted then and completely caught off guard by a 360 turnaround?

Under $100 basically means $99 in marketing speak.  I'll be surprised if it is any lower since the PS Eye is still $40 and the 2 controllers will be about $50-60 (wand) and $20-30 (nunchuck) respectively.  I know the bundle is just PSEye + Wand + Game, but that's still $100 or more worth of value depending on how much the wand and game would have been priced.

No, the Elite Slim 360 would be $200 if it did not have Natal, so about $250 with Natal bundled, IMO.

I'm narrow-minded because I can see only one outcome?  And yet, you are open-minded because you can see...only one outcome?  Again with your flawed logic.  Just because someone disagrees with you, doesn't mean they are closed-minded.  It means they disagree with you.  I can see this argument from many views, however my conclusion after looking at it is what I have stated.  You looked at it and came out with a different opinion.  And I'm narrow-minded because?  It's people who want to just insult others in a debate, or call them narrow-minded, are the ones who are truly closed-minded.

The truth about the pricecut is if you go to anyone in a store and ask, "This product just was dropped by $100, is that a pricecut?"  They will answer yes.  Not ask if there was a cheaper sku before that it replaced.  If the Elite replaced the Pro, than the price would stay the same and the Pro would have just been taken off shelves.  However, the Pro was taken off shelves AND the Elite price was cut.  Like I said, people just used the sku argument to make it seem like Sony had the advantage in terms of price and, therefore, there was no other outcome but the PS3 outselling the 360.  Of course, if the 360 was outselling the PS3, they would be saying that the 360 pricecut had a better affect than the PS3's did

The "under $100" was put up there because Sony is not sure how much they are going to sell the Move bundle for.  If they knew it was going to be $99, they would have just said it was that price.  Granted, there is still a possibility that it could be $99, but I suspect it will fall between $80-$90.  They still have ~7 months to decide what will be a good price for it. 

And do you seriously think that MS is going to sell the Elite at that big of a loss?  I know the 360 is selling at a profit, now, but nowhere near over $100 profit.  The max they can afford to drop the 360 would be around $50.  Plus, it would look bad to the general public if their "top of the line" model was already the same price as a Wii, which is widely known to have inferior hardware (not a jab, just a fact).  It would just make it seem "cheap."  And not in a good way.



CommonMan said:
Your calculations are correct, the PS3 could overtake the 360 worldwide in that timeframe.

That being said, your calculations are meaningless. What you are doing is taking a small sample size that is not representative of the way this gen has played out, and then extrapolating a direct line out from the current trajectory. There is no evidence to suggest that this trend will continue beyond the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year, in fact the ONLY solid evidence we do have is that it will NOT continue. Every year since the PS3 launched there has been a paradigm change around Q4 of the year, this is a fact. Also, your hypothesis depends on the fact that no factors change from now until then, and one of the facts we do know is that both companies will be launching potential game changing peripherals this fall, based on what is called the "disruptive technology" of the Wii, so we know for a FACT that a factor WILL change. So yes it could happen, but anyone can tell you that, everyone can see that the PS3 is selling more than the 360 right now. But that means nothing in regards to knowing what will happen.

Seriously I think we can just end the thread with this right here.