This is assuming PS3 keeps up all the momentum from the price drop and the slim, which obviously won't happen. All consoles have to come back down to earth sooner or later, even the mighty Playstation 3..

That said, it looks like PS3 still could edge out the 360 in the long run, but it won't be as soon as May 2011. I'm thinking in around 2 years if it does.

I know you included the holidays for both, that is part of the problem.  Most of that 30 weeks you used are all oddities for one reason or another.  The huge boost from the price cut drags up your average difference, but does not apply moving into the future.  The difference during the holiday is always bigger than during normal parts of the year.  Because of that, the holiday numbers cannot be used to extrapolate what will happen during the other three quarters of the year.

I did say May 2011 is the absolute minimum ;)

Even excluding Holiday sales its still a 50k margin of PS3 outselling the 360, which is still well within the Time frame i put, and there is no indication...at all of the PS3 slowing down dramatically anytime soon, and big releases will only help sustain and push that margin from now until that time-frame is up.

Look we all know no one here is going to convince the other...so can we just agree to disagree? lol

@ nightsurge

I'm not going to qoute for the sake of web space. But anyway, your logic is completely flawed. So the 360 will never get a pricecut because it will only be replacing sku's? And yet the price will somehow be CUT to $200, eventually? How does that even make sense? The truth is any logical person, as well as the average consumer, will see the subtraction of $100 as a price cut. Only the "fanboys" use the sku argument to make it seem like the ball was always in Sony's court to soften the blow of the PS3 outselling 360 ever since BOTH pricecuts.

And obviously $300 is a sweet spot for the PS3, as it's been selling well since dropping to that price. However, you are right. $200 will be an even bigger sweet spot.

Also, what's with your flawed prices for the Move and Natal bundles? The standalone bundle for Move will be LESS than $100. I'm guessing $80-$90. Why would Sony bundle it with a PS3 for the same or more for the standalone? The point of a bundle is to SAVE money, not spend the same or more. So at most, the Move bundle will be $350, and that's without a PS3 pricecut. And Natal bundled in an Elite for only $250. Yea, ok. If they do a pricecut, the standalone Elite will be $250. So how much with Natal? Well, let's not forget how much MS likes to price their accessories higher than what they normally cost for their PC counterparts, as well as the fact that MS has been pushing Natal as a revolutionary device with new tech. So, I'm guessing that Natal by itself will be $80-$100, if not higher. So the bundle will be AT LEAST $300.

@Ssliasil

Your calculations seems flawed, Kowenicki's statistics seems more efficient, reliable & relevant

There's clearly no arguing with you.  You can only see one outcome.  I wish people on VGC weren't so narrow minded, but I guess VGC is mostly PS fan dominated so I shouldn't be surprised.  I mean, where were you back in 2008?  Were you as narrow minded and short sighted then and completely caught off guard by a 360 turnaround?

Under $100 basically means $99 in marketing speak.  I'll be surprised if it is any lower since the PS Eye is still $40 and the 2 controllers will be about $50-60 (wand) and $20-30 (nunchuck) respectively.  I know the bundle is just PSEye + Wand + Game, but that's still $100 or more worth of value depending on how much the wand and game would have been priced.

No, the Elite Slim 360 would be $200 if it did not have Natal, so about $250 with Natal bundled, IMO.

I have already states, that if you exclude the Holiday numbers and the Slim Launch period, you still get a high enough average to fit in Time frame that i included, how do YOU not understand that?

Actually, the last 10 weeks the average difference is 41.5k.  But even at 50k it is still going to take more than 2 years, putting you at nearly mid 2012.

Kowenicki's numbers on this are just much better.

All of you that are arguing or debating with me are only looking at the Minimum time fram i set, May 2011...key word MINIMUM!!!!

This was all the way back in the freaking OP, so i DID take into account the Holiday/slim sales as giving it a boost and extended the timeframe by many months cause the PS3 Sales will OBVIOUSLy slow down.

it is inevitable that PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 before Q2 2012 unless something REDICULOUSLY dramatic occurs and PS3 just dies...it will take a whole hell of alot more than natal to prevent that from happening.