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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 could statistically surpass 360, may 2011--Jan. 2012

Unless there are some huge sales boost then this won't happen by that time. PS3 needs GT5 and the Dildo to sell a lot of PS3s for this to happen.



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thismeintiel said:
theRepublic said:
Ssliasil said:
But do the math in the OP and then tell me how they are different :P

Your math isn't 'wrong', but I think your method has a problem.

You use the 30 weeks since the slim was launched.  That 30 weeks includes the huge spike from when the slim was launched.  That spike is never going to happen again.  It also includes the holidays, which is not really comparable to the rest of the year.  So your numbers include very few 'normal' weeks.  So because of that spike and the holidays, your numbers make it look like the PS3 will catch up faster than it really will.

That huge spike will happen again whenever the PS3 drops to $200.  This will happen in either 2011 or 2012.  Plus, there are plenty of game launches that could cause a relatively large spike.  GT5 and possibly FFV13 come to mind.  Another factor is that Sony still haven't been able to fully address the shortages in America, yet.  So, sales will probably see a small boost once there are enough PS3 units in retail and online stores.

The same spikes can happen to the 360 for those reasons.

The best thing to do is to take out abnormal weeks when trying to calculate something like this.



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thismeintiel said:
theRepublic said:
Ssliasil said:
But do the math in the OP and then tell me how they are different :P

Your math isn't 'wrong', but I think your method has a problem.

You use the 30 weeks since the slim was launched.  That 30 weeks includes the huge spike from when the slim was launched.  That spike is never going to happen again.  It also includes the holidays, which is not really comparable to the rest of the year.  So your numbers include very few 'normal' weeks.  So because of that spike and the holidays, your numbers make it look like the PS3 will catch up faster than it really will.

That huge spike will happen again whenever the PS3 drops to $200.  This will happen in either 2011 or 2012.  Plus, there are plenty of game launches that could cause a relatively large spike.  GT5 and possibly FFV13 come to mind.  Another factor is that Sony still haven't been able to fully address the shortages in America, yet.  So, sales will probably see a small boost once there are enough PS3 units in retail and online stores.

Just like 360's large spike from 2008 will happen again this year if it price cuts with the Slim + Natal + big games.

EDIT:  Ah, theRepublic beat me to it.

Also, PS3 units should be meeting demand as of this week (so should show up in numbers in a week or 2 on VGC).  Also, even ioi himself said that up until this March 20th sales figures, there really wasn't a "shortage" because if you wanted a PS3 you could still find one with minor effort.



kowhoho said:
Nabraham said:
So what? By that time the PS3 will be 4 and a half or 5 years old....will it matter at that point? It's not like parties will start jumping ship because this console generation will be on the decline and it's not like the PS3 or 360 have sold bad either.

This thread is meant to discuss its possibility, not whether or not it "matters." Bring something to the conversation.

I just laid out what the possibilities are if the PS3 passes the 360 in sales. Settle down hoss.



Had to change my sig to get some moderator to quit bitching about it......

 

I don't know about in your time frame, but the PS3 beats the 360 on a weekly basis with ease so PS3 will be above 360 eventaully. 85k difference this week in favor of PS3. I know that's a bit of a boost from GoW3 and other things but the gap is still usually 25-50k or so.

I think your time frame is off though. Like let's be generous and say the PS3 beats 360 by 50k each week on average; with a gap of 5.58m units that would take 111 weeks which is just over 2 years so about April 2012.



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My calculations included the pricecuts, Holiday Sales for BOTH consoles, you can argue that *Thats why the average weekly sales are so high since slim launch* But dont you forget that theres another Holiday season, GT5, PSmove, FFVXIII ect in and before the timeframe i suggested which WILL keep that average weekly sales in the same range or perhaps higher.

Same goes for the 360 sales and releases with natal, Halo Reach (which will hardly sell consoles), and alan wake...

Year on Year for both consoles will make all the difference, in fact it will be about 10% higher for the PS3 (As opposed to the current 35% YoY) from 2009-2010 and 5-10% Lower for the X360 even on the back of Natal.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Ssliasil said:
Off Topic:---Just me or is the Homepage loading really slowly?...taking like 3 minutes

continue of off topic--- are you using opera? since the last update the internet has a lot more lag and crashes...

on topic - those statistics aren't well made... i am sorry. PS3 can surpass 360 in that time window but the reasons and calculations are wrong, there are lots of variables that you don't take into consideration...



Proudest Platinums - BF: Bad Company, Killzone 2 , Battlefield 3 and GTA4

and we are all aware of the huge pent up demand for the PS3 before and since the Slim release, and now with the shortages in the USA that isnt going to go away for a long time, especially when GT5 releases which will be a system seller on par with that of Halo 3 for the Xbox.



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Off Topic:-- Naw not using Opera, looks like the site was getting the software update when i was trying to load the Homepage, its fine now *using firefox*



...uhh...ill just put my favorite quote of all time here.

"Welcome to Pain, the second of three...You have dealt the first...now deal with me!!"

Ssliasil said:
My calculations included the pricecuts, Holiday Sales for BOTH consoles, you can argue that *Thats why the average weekly sales are so high since slim launch* But dont you forget that theres another Holiday season, GT5, PSmove, FFVXIII ect in and before the timeframe i suggested which WILL keep that average weekly sales in the same range or perhaps higher.

Same goes for the 360 sales and releases with natal, Halo Reach (which will hardly sell consoles), and alan wake...

Year on Year for both consoles will make all the difference, in fact it will be about 10% higher for the PS3 (As opposed to the current 35% YoY) from 2009-2010 and 5-10% Lower for the X360 even on the back of Natal.

Thanks for the update, future man.  What's the weather like in Fantasy Rainbow Sony Always Wins and 360 Always Fails Natal Sucks Halo Blows World?