PS3 could statistically surpass 360, may 2011--Jan. 2012

[theRepublic]

thismeintiel said:

theRepublic said:

Ssliasil said:
But do the math in the OP and then tell me how they are different :P

Your math isn't 'wrong', but I think your method has a problem.

You use the 30 weeks since the slim was launched.  That 30 weeks includes the huge spike from when the slim was launched.  That spike is never going to happen again.  It also includes the holidays, which is not really comparable to the rest of the year.  So your numbers include very few 'normal' weeks.  So because of that spike and the holidays, your numbers make it look like the PS3 will catch up faster than it really will.

That huge spike will happen again whenever the PS3 drops to $200.  This will happen in either 2011 or 2012.  Plus, there are plenty of game launches that could cause a relatively large spike.  GT5 and possibly FFV13 come to mind.  Another factor is that Sony still haven't been able to fully address the shortages in America, yet.  So, sales will probably see a small boost once there are enough PS3 units in retail and online stores.

The same spikes can happen to the 360 for those reasons.

The best thing to do is to take out abnormal weeks when trying to calculate something like this.