The Wii is going to have online games, but how many, who knows? Few people buy a PS3 and 360 so I think they will split their target market about 50/50 ww with 360 dominating NA and PS3 dominating Japan. For Wii, a lot of people that buy a 360 or PS3 will also get a Wii and also a lot of people that dont even buy games are getting a Wii so there is a huge potential there.

Source, you're all right. Great post. @Kwaad and KGB29 - Where do you guys buy computers? Let's see, my initial planning on my next pc later this year when vista's first service pack is released. Via www.newegg.com 1x ASUS A8N32-SLI Deluxe $150 1x AMD Athlon 64 X2 3800 (Dual Core) $120 2x Radeon X1650PRO 512MB PCI Express 16x $212 2x Kingston HyperX 1G DDR 333 $170 1x Seagate 400GB SATA Drive $120 1x Cooler Master Case w/550 watt $60 1x Vista 64 Home Premium $120 (Unless I aqcuire via different means :) ) -- Using my own DVD Drives (If I was buying it would be like $50 for one. However I have two that work perfectly already) 1x Liteon DVD/RW Drive $0 1x Liteon CD/RW + DVD $0 Total $952. So for an extra $370 ($250 if you take out Vista) I can get a much better pc than the ps3. Sure, it can't play BR discs, but I wouldn't be buying them anyways and I could download HD movies instead. However, it would have much better graphics capabilities, as that is what is important to you anyways, and have all the functions of a real pc, vs the dumbed down ps3+linux you have. Tons more HD space for running my own DVR to my TV and best of it's not Sony!!

I absolutely agree with this. Not to concentrate on one console just hurts the third parties, because they have to invest more and still have a smaller userbase per console.

I think Wii will win the generation, but some of factors Stickball mentioned prevent me from thinking Wii will have over 40% when this set of consoles stops selling.  Still, Japan already has high HD adoption and that is Wii's best region, which is why I think Wii will still sell the most overall.  In the West, I think HD adoption will favor PS3 and 360 among gamers who want cheap, traditional game play and pretty graphics.  So in 2009 or 2010 I can see PS3 or 360 selling alot.  But, even if 360 is say..$199 or $250 by then, I think alot of people will keep picking up Wii if it is $100 or $150.  PS3 will pick up on 360 in Europe and Japan, and when it costs less than $400 for the good model, it will move ahead of 360 worldwide (this I think happens in 2010).  Considering 165 million consoles sold last generation, I'm not really predicting a tie in raw data, just close to one in percentages.  If the market goes to 200 million this generation (through 2014, with the vast majority of sales through 2012), then it would be:

Wii - 76 million

PS3 - 66 million

360 - 58 million

Not what I would call a tie.  SNES and Genesis were 23% apart in marketshare and the difference was only 19 million, but with a bigger market, a smaller percentage can mean similar seperation in units sold.

You're probably wondering how the hell Sony will get to that many...well here is how I see the years going

LTD (yearly sales) 

2005 360 - .7 LTD

2006 360 - 8.5 million LTD (7.8 million), Wii - 3.19 million LTD, PS3 - 1.25 million LTD

2007 Wii - 18 million LTD (14.81 million), 360 14.5 million LTD (6 million), PS3 8.75 million LTD (7.5 million)

2008 Wii - 36 million - (18 million), 360 - 25.5 million (11 million), PS3 21 million (12.25 million)

2009 Wii - 53 million (17 million), 360 - 37.5 million (12 million), PS3 36 million (15 million)

2010 Wii -  65 million (12 million), 360 - 46.5 million (9 million), PS3 49 million (13 million)

2011 Wii - 71 million (6 million), 360 -  51.5 million (5 million), PS3 58 million (9 million)

2012 Wii - 74 million (3 million), 360 - 55 million (3.5 million), PS3 63 million (5 million)

2013 Wii - 75.5 million (1.5 million), 360 - 57.25 million (2.25 million), PS3 65.5 million (2.5 million)

2014 Wii - 76 million (.5 million), 360 - 58 million (.75 million), PS3 - 66 million (.5 million)

My rule of thumb is..9,000,000 hardware/year is the bench mark for great sales.  That works out to an average of 250,000 units/territory/month.

Sales/Grade/Description

13.5 million+/year A - Console in full swing (375,000 sold/territory/month)

9 million/year B - Console revving up or down (250,000 sold/territory/month)

6 million/year C - Average sales (166,666 sold/territory/month)

3 million/year D - Console dying/launching slowly (83,333 sold/territory/month)

1.5 million/year or less F - Console Dead/very supply constrained launch (41,666 sold/territory/month)

Looking at it like that then...

2005 - 360 - F

2006 - 360 - B-/C+,  Wii - D, PS3 - F

2007 - Wii - A, PS3 B-/C+, 360 - C

2008 - Wii - A+, PS3 A-, 360 B+

2009 - Wii - A+, PS3 A, 360 A-

2010 - PS3 - A, Wii A-/B+, 360 B

2011 - PS3 - B, Wii C, 360 C-

2012 - PS3 - C-, 360 D, Wii D 

2013 - PS3 - D, 360 D-, Wii F

2014 - Wii, PS3, 360 - F

Wii lifespan (throw out F's) 2006-2012

360 lifespan (throw out F's) 2006-2013

PS3 lifespan (throw out F's) 2007-2013 

Look at it like this too:

10% Total sales reached...

Wii: May 2007?

PS3: October 2007?

360: Sept 2006?

25% Total sales reached...

Wii: Jan/February 2008

PS3: October 2008

360: December 2007

50% Total sales reached...

Wii: Jan/Feb 2009

PS3: October 2009

360: April 2009

66% Total sales reached...

Wii: December 2009

PS3: August 2010

360: Feb/March 2010

75% Total sales reached...

Wii: June 2010

PS3: January 2011

360 August 2010

90% Total sales reached...

Wii: October/November 2011

PS3: March 2012

360: March 2012

ok this makes sense, and i expect it just a little different. I think your numbers for the wii in the years 2009 to 2011 are a little to low. If the wii can keep up his momentum until the end of 2008, i expect it to sell similar numbers for another two years and then around 10 million in 2011, which would give the wii 10 additional millions sold LTD.

I expect this because of the third parties, as Rolstoppable mentioned a little above. they will focus on the wii which will force most of the hardcore gamers to buy one and it will keep selling strong to casuals of course. I also expect nintendo to launch something like a wiilite for christmas 2008 or a little later (nothing special, just a redesign and cordless nunchuck or something like that) which would help keeping up the high sales too.

My gamer gut tells me Sony won't sell that many consoles.

But they are going to sell 125 million PS2's.  Can they really lose more than 50% of their sales (60 million pieces of hardware) just because they launched at $600?  SNES to N64 was a drop of 17 million units, N64 to GC was a drop of 10 million units.  Sony doesn't have the 1st party content to cushion their fall, but they have enough not to lose more than 60 million customers..don't they? I think so. 

As a percentage, Nintendo lost 33% of it's market from SNES to N64.  If Sony lost that many PS2 owners, they are down into the 80 millions...still ahead of what I think Wii can do.  But, I think Sony obtained less loyal followers..and can lose a lot more than 1/3 of their PS2 customers...somewhere between 2/5 and 3/5 of their base will likely go to Nintendo and Microsoft.  Even if 60% abandon Sony though, that is still 50 million PS2 customers, and then add whatever they can get from former GC, XBOX owners. 

I picked 66 million because I basically can't see them losing more than 60% of their customers, yet I can't see them selling more than 20 million in any territory besides America...its a compromise.

If you asked me for ranges I'd go:

Wii - 60-90 million

PS3 - 40-75 million (This assumes 50 to 85 million customers abandon PS2.. hard to predict) 

360 - 45-65 million

 Keep in mind, both "16 bit=>32/64" bit and "32/64 bit=>last gen" transitions saw major increases in total market.  Your figures, assuming the high number for all three consoles, still only sees worldwide growth of about 30%.  Assuming all the low numbers, the industry will have shrunk significantly.  It looks like Nintendo didn't lose that many customers, but where they really lost was in market expansion, where Sony (and later Microsoft) were more able to capitolize.  The market went from 80 million units to 140 million units, to 175 (numbers taken from Wikipedia).  I'm too tired to figure out how this affects things right now, but it probably will.

Gah, I needs da sleeps.

fish kinda hit the nail on the head. Everyone here except for a few few people are very very pessimistic on console sales for the generation. Most state they think the market will shrink from the 190m units it had previous gen (assuming that the PS2 and GC just sells 15 more units between last Dec and their demise).

IMO, with the Wii's strategy + market expansion, we could see 210, 230 or even 250m units sold in the next 7 years for the consoles. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

PS2 will sell another 15 million..really no reason to include Gamecube in that number..700,000 were sold in Nintendo's last fiscal year.

Where do you get 190 million though? 125 million PS2, 9 million DC, 24 million Xbox, 22 million GC...180 million?

To me ten percent growth is good, because I think alot of gamers stop playing in their 30s.  For me, there is still a generation gap.  There is a wall of disinterest that needs to be pushed back another 5 years each generation of consoles just to keep older gamers involved, however, with male gamers now from the late 60's,70's, 80's, 90's, and 00's now playing the market will grow.  The market will get to 250 million if Nintendo can reach women over 30 who play MMORPGS, casual games, and online games, and if Nintendo can grab men over 40 in large numbers.

Estimates for Console sales in the early 80's ~ 45-50 million 

The data on this website says...

NES/Gen 1 ~ 61.5 million (market maybe 65 million with other things like the master system)

Gen 2 (SNES/Genesis) ~ 80 million (market maybe 85 million with other failed consoles)

Gen 3 (PS1/N64/Sat) ~ 144 million

Gen 4 (DC/PS2/GC/Xbox) ~ 180 million (when PS2 is done selling)

250 million would be a massive paradime shift..it would be the biggest expansion since 2D to 3D made games mainstream.  To me, the paradime shift is with Wii, so sales would be the most, not with PS3 or 360.  If 1/2 of the 70 million new gamers come from normal growth, then 35 million go to Nintendo.  If they kept 2/3 of their base like from SNES to N64 to GC..then you have..35 million + 15 million as their base..50 million in sales.  Is that what you base your Wii expectations on?

QFT...but warning my post is written by somebody that has a serious hangover.

I reallly agree here, people is way to pessimistic, if Wii succed with their goal we will have an higher userbase. It might be fullt possible to substain really good sales for all three consols. I do think that xbox360 will be king in USA for at least 2007, giving 3rd party devs a good reason for supporting them. Microsofts one year head start has actuly given them a good start in one of the markets. If they could push the lifespann for xbox360 untill 2012, I could see it reach 30 million+

PS3 has one problem it is attacked from two fronts, xbox360 in the high defintition area and Wii for the casual crowd (that ps2 is tapping really well to). But should be able to reach at least 60 million, if not sony rush PS4 because they cant get the PS3 financial or if they not capitalize on their big names. Sony needs to push a lot of good internal and 3rd party games over a short period to create buzz and momentum. One game every second or thired month and it will end upp as a gamecube.

Wii, I really think that a growth to 60-80 million would be fantastic and most possible. If DS is anything to show of, a total sale around 20 million in japan alone shouldn't be impossible. The big question I have hear is that I don't know how well Nintendo will do in Europe. It is still sold out but it feels like that we doesn't get that many games or consols for the moment. The initial sales seems, however, very good and should indicate that at least some growth in Europe will be possible.