PS2 will sell another 15 million..really no reason to include Gamecube in that number..700,000 were sold in Nintendo's last fiscal year.
Where do you get 190 million though? 125 million PS2, 9 million DC, 24 million Xbox, 22 million GC...180 million?
To me ten percent growth is good, because I think alot of gamers stop playing in their 30s. For me, there is still a generation gap. There is a wall of disinterest that needs to be pushed back another 5 years each generation of consoles just to keep older gamers involved, however, with male gamers now from the late 60's,70's, 80's, 90's, and 00's now playing the market will grow. The market will get to 250 million if Nintendo can reach women over 30 who play MMORPGS, casual games, and online games, and if Nintendo can grab men over 40 in large numbers.
Estimates for Console sales in the early 80's ~ 45-50 million
The data on this website says...
NES/Gen 1 ~ 61.5 million (market maybe 65 million with other things like the master system)
Gen 2 (SNES/Genesis) ~ 80 million (market maybe 85 million with other failed consoles)
Gen 3 (PS1/N64/Sat) ~ 144 million
Gen 4 (DC/PS2/GC/Xbox) ~ 180 million (when PS2 is done selling)
250 million would be a massive paradime shift..it would be the biggest expansion since 2D to 3D made games mainstream. To me, the paradime shift is with Wii, so sales would be the most, not with PS3 or 360. If 1/2 of the 70 million new gamers come from normal growth, then 35 million go to Nintendo. If they kept 2/3 of their base like from SNES to N64 to GC..then you have..35 million + 15 million as their base..50 million in sales. Is that what you base your Wii expectations on?
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
