Recently, I have been going over the monthly progress of worldwide marketshare between 360, Wii and PS3. I'm going to use this thread to go over what I have noticed. At the end of 2006, the world market was split like this as near as I can tell: Xbox 360 - 65% (very strong N.A. Christmas, decent in Eur, bad in Japan) Wii - 24% (Good December in NA/Eur...Great Dec in Japan) PS3 - 11% (Decent holiday in NA/Jap) By the end of January: Xbox 360 - 60% (back to normal hardware levels) Wii - 29% (huge gains in Japan 450k, and the USA - 435k) PS3 - 11% (still selling briskly for about 1/2 the month) By the end of February: Xbox 360 - 57% (normal levels) Wii - 31% (sales slowing a bit in Japan, still strong worldwide) PS3 - 12% (small bumps in Japan help) Currently (March 31) Xbox 360 - 52% (normal levels) Wii - 33% (sales rising in Japan again..steady elsewhere) PS3 - 15% (Europe Launch makes a big dent) At the rate things are going, the PS3 will make inroads on 360 in Europe. In Japan, 360 will lose enormous market share each month to Wii and PS3 making it easier for them to catch up (300k to 400k vs 80k to 100k vs 10k to 16k/ week) worldwide. In the Americas, Wii will continue outselling 360 most months, but not enough to catchup anytime soon (if ever). PS3 will never catch 360 in the USA. With strong Wii sales likely to explode and stronger PS3 sales likely for Golden Week in Japan, and strong PS3 sales in Europe for at least another week or two, 360 should be out of the 'majority' position within three weeks (on a worldwide basis), falling into the 45-48% range of total market share. Also, although PS3 launched well in Europe, I had expected PS3 to sell around 800,000 in Europe by the end of March when I set up how I thought the year would play out in January...Still my prediction for March 31 (360 - 50%, Wii 33%, PS3 - 17%) is very close to the actual data on this website where 360 has 52%, Wii 33%, PS3 15%. By the end of April I expect: 360 - 48% (no golden week benefit) Wii - 35% (Increased production, golden week, paper mario) PS3 - 17% (Euro hangover/easter, golden week)

Great post keep them coming...

Nice post

Now that IS research!. Good work!

If not for Halo 3/GTA launching in September, I would expect Wii to take over 1st place in mid September. Adjusting for those games though, I think it will be more like early November.

i think the launch of halo 3 could be the point were this generation will first show its winner. if wii is already in front of x360 w/w, even with halo it will get very difficult for microsoft to come back to the throne. but if they are still in front at that point and are able to gain momentum with halo, maybe they can outsell wii for some months to make the gap bigger again. and as if this wouldn't be interesting enough, there also is the variable ps3 in the game. btw, another great post by theSource!

Great stuff, Source. I expect you're right, that 360 will slip to 50% marketshare or below for the first time in April... Moving just 260K in NA in Feb, I doubt 360 will sell even 500K in April, while if Wii production increases are in full swing, it could pull 1.1-1.2 million, cutting the total lead under 3 million even as 360 hits 10 million total.

Again, amazing What makes me wonder though, is how well the PS3 will sell after launch. It did good, but will it be like here in the US where they just sit on store shelves.

I think so. Especially with low HD penatration in Europe... Everyone that wanted one got one, now I expect it to slow way down. It is just too expensive for most people. Sony needs to reduce the price by $200 at least just to move the product. Otherwise they will lose more and more market share, then they start to lose games.

I don't think a lack of HD penetration limits in any way the sales of PS3 and XBOX 360. It is not like the Wii is the height of standard def graphics and PS3 and 360 can only surpass it with the help of HD. However, among those who do buy an HDTV, however few, I would imagine that they would be more likely to buy a PS3/360 than a Wii. Remember, despite what Sony and Microsoft might say, no console or even supercomputer has come even close to maximizing what can be displayed in standard definition. Ask yourself, what looks better, a Live NFL game on a crappy Philips TV, or Madden PS3 on a Bravia. In fact the average person can distiguish CGI from real life in movies as well, despite the fact that the effects are prerendered. Back to the point, the big question is if Microsoft will get a large enough bump in its US christmas sales to hold off the Wii worldwide. Microsoft should sell well over 1.5 million consoles in December in the U.S. alone and around 3 million in the 4th quarter. Assuming the trend is roughly 2/3 of 360 sales are in the U.S., we could see Microsoft push over 4.5 million consoles worldwide in the 4th quarter of this year. Microsoft will hold off Wii through the end of 2007, and may actually increase the small lead it holds at the end of September. The end of 2007 ww sales will be.... 360 17.5 million Wii 16.5 million PS3 9 million What is amazing is that Wii may reach 75% of Gamecube sales by year end.