Forums - Sales Discussion - Tracking Market Share

TheSource said:

My gamer gut tells me Sony won't sell that many consoles.

But they are going to sell 125 million PS2's. Can they really lose more than 50% of their sales (60 million pieces of hardware) just because they launched at $600? SNES to N64 was a drop of 17 million units, N64 to GC was a drop of 10 million units. Sony doesn't have the 1st party content to cushion their fall, but they have enough not to lose more than 60 million customers..don't they? I think so.

As a percentage, Nintendo lost 33% of it's market from SNES to N64. If Sony lost that many PS2 owners, they are down into the 80 millions...still ahead of what I think Wii can do. But, I think Sony obtained less loyal followers..and can lose a lot more than 1/3 of their PS2 customers...somewhere between 2/5 and 3/5 of their base will likely go to Nintendo and Microsoft. Even if 60% abandon Sony though, that is still 50 million PS2 customers, and then add whatever they can get from former GC, XBOX owners.

I picked 66 million because I basically can't see them losing more than 60% of their customers, yet I can't see them selling more than 20 million in any territory besides America...its a compromise.

If you asked me for ranges I'd go:

Wii - 60-90 million

PS3 - 40-75 million (This assumes 50 to 85 million customers abandon PS2.. hard to predict)

360 - 45-65 million

 Keep in mind, both "16 bit=>32/64" bit and "32/64 bit=>last gen" transitions saw major increases in total market.  Your figures, assuming the high number for all three consoles, still only sees worldwide growth of about 30%.  Assuming all the low numbers, the industry will have shrunk significantly.  It looks like Nintendo didn't lose that many customers, but where they really lost was in market expansion, where Sony (and later Microsoft) were more able to capitolize.  The market went from 80 million units to 140 million units, to 175 (numbers taken from Wikipedia).  I'm too tired to figure out how this affects things right now, but it probably will.

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fish kinda hit the nail on the head. Everyone here except for a few few people are very very pessimistic on console sales for the generation. Most state they think the market will shrink from the 190m units it had previous gen (assuming that the PS2 and GC just sells 15 more units between last Dec and their demise).

IMO, with the Wii's strategy + market expansion, we could see 210, 230 or even 250m units sold in the next 7 years for the consoles. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

PS2 will sell another 15 million..really no reason to include Gamecube in that number..700,000 were sold in Nintendo's last fiscal year.

Where do you get 190 million though? 125 million PS2, 9 million DC, 24 million Xbox, 22 million GC...180 million?

To me ten percent growth is good, because I think alot of gamers stop playing in their 30s.  For me, there is still a generation gap.  There is a wall of disinterest that needs to be pushed back another 5 years each generation of consoles just to keep older gamers involved, however, with male gamers now from the late 60's,70's, 80's, 90's, and 00's now playing the market will grow.  The market will get to 250 million if Nintendo can reach women over 30 who play MMORPGS, casual games, and online games, and if Nintendo can grab men over 40 in large numbers.

Estimates for Console sales in the early 80's ~ 45-50 million 

The data on this website says...

NES/Gen 1 ~ 61.5 million (market maybe 65 million with other things like the master system)

Gen 2 (SNES/Genesis) ~ 80 million (market maybe 85 million with other failed consoles)

Gen 3 (PS1/N64/Sat) ~ 144 million

Gen 4 (DC/PS2/GC/Xbox) ~ 180 million (when PS2 is done selling)

250 million would be a massive paradime would be the biggest expansion since 2D to 3D made games mainstream.  To me, the paradime shift is with Wii, so sales would be the most, not with PS3 or 360.  If 1/2 of the 70 million new gamers come from normal growth, then 35 million go to Nintendo.  If they kept 2/3 of their base like from SNES to N64 to GC..then you have..35 million + 15 million as their base..50 million in sales.  Is that what you base your Wii expectations on?

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

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mrstickball said:

fish kinda hit the nail on the head. Everyone here except for a few few people are very very pessimistic on console sales for the generation. Most state they think the market will shrink from the 190m units it had previous gen (assuming that the PS2 and GC just sells 15 more units between last Dec and their demise).

IMO, with the Wii's strategy + market expansion, we could see 210, 230 or even 250m units sold in the next 7 years for the consoles. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

QFT...but warning my post is written by somebody that has a serious hangover.

I reallly agree here, people is way to pessimistic, if Wii succed with their goal we will have an higher userbase. It might be fullt possible to substain really good sales for all three consols. I do think that xbox360 will be king in USA for at least 2007, giving 3rd party devs a good reason for supporting them. Microsofts one year head start has actuly given them a good start in one of the markets. If they could push the lifespann for xbox360 untill 2012, I could see it reach 30 million+

PS3 has one problem it is attacked from two fronts, xbox360 in the high defintition area and Wii for the casual crowd (that ps2 is tapping really well to). But should be able to reach at least 60 million, if not sony rush PS4 because they cant get the PS3 financial or if they not capitalize on their big names. Sony needs to push a lot of good internal and 3rd party games over a short period to create buzz and momentum. One game every second or thired month and it will end upp as a gamecube.

Wii, I really think that a growth to 60-80 million would be fantastic and most possible. If DS is anything to show of, a total sale around 20 million in japan alone shouldn't be impossible. The big question I have hear is that I don't know how well Nintendo will do in Europe. It is still sold out but it feels like that we doesn't get that many games or consols for the moment. The initial sales seems, however, very good and should indicate that at least some growth in Europe will be possible.



Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

I just thought I might add, this generation has the best chance of bucking the trend of one dominant console. The simple reason is almost every time, the first console out of the gates get an unassailable lead and has complete developer support by the time the rest of the group are out. This time we have the 360 out first and while it's following the same path as other consoles previously, it completely flopped in Japan. As such, the support from American companies hoping to sell to American gamers is there, but Japan makes a lot of games and won't really back the 360. We may even see 360 win in US, lose in Japan and Europe is anyone's guess, but I'd say they're likely to lose there too except in some countries. So I think in the end the 360 will get a larger userbase than the Xbox, the Wii will get a larger userbase than the Gamecube, and the PS3 will get a smaller userbase than the PS2. There will most likely be one clear winner though, and it will be by a fairly large lead (perhaps double the next console) but there's no way we're going to see the complete domination of last generation by any console.

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Source, as I stated in my post, we saw 180m consoles sold last gen THUS FAR. The PS2 continues to sell about 40k a month in Japan, 250k in the US, and most likely, another 250k in other countries around the world, if not more. Therefore, it's still selling around 500-600k a month, and will slowly taper off. It could sell another 10m this year, giving last gen 190m+ as the PS2 should sell into 2008 (albiet very slowly, 300k or less/mo). If the Wii really is selling to a new market, then the total # of overall systems WILL increase merely based on that fact. From the PS1 to PS2 generation, we saw a slight 15% increase in total console sales. I believe this # is due to the improvement of European and emerging nation sales. We could see another 15% this cycle, or even 20% from emerging nations. However, the Wii will most likely open up people to the fold, and could improve the marketshare another 5-10% of units due to this. Because of it, I assume the Wii will get the 22m the GC got, plus another 5-15m from return users/current market purchasers, the 15% increase from last generation (about 3m units) and 5-10% of the total market growth from ultra-new users primarily in Japan. (5-10% would translate anywhere from 10-20m or more). Microsoft will EASILY, and I mean EASILY beat out the first Xbox by leaps and bounds. The 360 has to sell just 3m more units w/w between now and December to truely overtake the Xbox in a time-and-date way (assuming MS pulled the plug 4yrs into sales). Of course they won't, so I'd expect 15-20% more sales for each year that MS keeps the system alive vs. the Xbox. The Xbox, had it of had a lifespan similar to the PS2 (or atleast 6yrs), could of sold 30m units or even 32.5m before ending had MS kept it. The Xbox 360 should, at a minimum, do 30.0-32.5m. However, with no true American successor to the PS2, improved emerging markets, and decent European gains (remember, it's already sold 3m of the 8m that Europe sold for Xboxs, before any price drop, no Halo), we should see sales of 40m or more. I'd put 40m as a minimum for the 360, and could see upwards of 55m if the European situation really improved, and the pricedrop really really helped sales (increased sales #s by 30-40%). Obviously the PS3 has the most to lose, as it won't really get a benefit from emerging market sales, as they can't afford the PS3 en-masse until maybe 2010 or 2011. It won't see the growth that the Wii or Xbox will see. The most important question is: how will emerging countries like China, India, eastern Europe, South Korea, Austrailia, and non-UK west European countries vote on video games? A few ideas per region: Japan should see a dramatic increase in hardware sales due to the Wii. I expect sales of 45m consoles between now and 2012 (24m Wii, 15-16m PS3, 3m X360). America should see a typical increase to around 90-100m consoles (37.5m X360, 30m PS3, 22.5 Wii, between those numbers and 5% more for each console) Europe should see the greatest increase as they become more tolerant of video games, and a greater income in eastern Europe. One of the reasons Germans can't afford games like the UK can is because they're still recovering from the re-joining of East and West, and median incomes aren't very high for around 30m of those germans. Europe, between east and west, should sell around 55m consoles + extra sales to the Mid East and Africa (25m PS3, 15.5m Wii, 15.0m X360) Emerging/Other markets will be the major ones to look at, as various countries will adopt various systems. Austrailia should stay in Sony and MS control, South Korea will go Sony/MS due to online, China will go Wii somewhat, India will be up in the air, and the other various countries will minorly pick between the 3. We should see sales of around 5-10m for each console by the time everything's said and done. Austrailia should provide atleast 2.5m consoles total, with SK, China, India, Taiwan and the Phillipines doing similar numbers, and the other ones (South America, ect) providing 0.5m to 2.0m units per country....Nothing major that'll show up on any press release except for "we shipped X # of systems this quarter). So I think we should see around 200m consoles sold just between Europe, the US and Japan. The rest should/would be from Emerging markets for around 10m to even 30m units sold if China and India start buying video games on some sort of meaningful level...If not more.

Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Back on topic 5.1.2007 update:

Total Hardware Sold: 19.49 million units

360 - 49.8%

Wii - 33.7%

PS3 - 16.5%

Japan Total Hardware Sold - same as before (update on frontpage to come later)

Americas Total Hardware Sold: 10.07 million units

360 - 60%

Wii - 26.2%

PS3 - 13.8%

Europe Total Hardware Sold: 5.97 million units

360 - 55.3%

Wii - 29%

PS3 - 15.7%

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I think that the PS3 will be the largest success in Europe. It already has 16% of the market and its been out for only a month ...............

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I agree, although not for the same reason.  PS3 had higher marketshares in the USA and Japan when it launched (at least in Japan, and against Wii in the USA).

 PS3 had the strongest launch allocation ever in Europe, so it definitely earned that % there.  But I think it will gain in Europe when Europeans see a price drop, and realize it does much of what 360 does, plus has the Sony gaming franchises (as well as the casual fare like Singstar) they like/love.

It wouldn't surprise me if it takes a long time for PS3 to catchup though, because without a pricedrop, it will not be able to catch 360 or Wii.  For another 6-18 months I think 360 will lead in Europe over Wii.  Then Wii will lead for around a year, as PS3 catches up late in 2008 or late in 2009. 

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

5/9/07 Update

Consoles (Wii,PS3,360) sold worldwide: 19.84 million

Worldwide Marketshare:

360 ~ 48.6%

Wii ~ 34.9%

PS3 ~ 16.5%

Japanese market (of 3.69 million consoles sold)

Wii ~ 65% (Huge recent sales have boosted this % 1%/week)

PS3 ~ 24.7% (Not much Golden Week boost, dropping)

360 ~ 10.3% (Dropping quickly)

Americas market (of 10.24 million consoles sold)

360 ~ 59.6% (Steadily dropping until big games come out in Aug-Dec)

Wii ~ 26.6% (improving with supply, should be 1/2 way to 360 userbase in 4-8 weeks)

PS3 ~ 13.8% (sales still well below 360, despite big Spiderman 3 boost - see American news story)

Others Market (of 5.91 million consoles sold)

360 ~ 53.5% (under 50% in 4 weeks? maybe...)

Wii ~ 30.3% (already well more than 1/2 of 360 sales

PS3 ~ 16.2% (impact of strong launch seems to be diminishing)

After doing this for a few weeks, it is surprising to note PS3 continues to lose marketshare.  While American & Japanese sales are in line with what I expected, I thought PS3 would grow, not shrink, most weeks because it could outsell 360 in Japan & Europe to offset losses to 360 in the USA.  As it stands now, PS3 marketshare is shrinking (though very very slowly) from week to week.  If Wii can get to 70% in Japan by the time Nintendo's traditional heavy hitters are released in Japan (Brawl, Galaxy), then I think that market is for Wii to dominate for at least another two years.

Edit: Litterally after I typed this, the numbers changed moment please...

Edit 2: Fixed!

People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu