I think no matter what Nintendo do (i.e. no matter how much they increase production) they will be supply constrained globally for the next two years at least. They have two *KILLER* trump card they can play if ever their sales sag: 1. A $50 USD no-pain price-cut ready to go at any time, if not $100 in West (in conjunction with removing Wii Sports as a pack-in): there's no reason to cut the price while they're earning such obscene margins, but it's a no-brainer if they ever need to increase sales. 2. The inevitable "Wii Fitness" game will be *MONSTROUS* huge. And reach ***WAY*** past any traditional gamer territory.

Nice research! Only comment I have to make, is that I suspect (within a few weeks?) the 360 will start outselling the PS3 again (globally) - unless excellent games come out. I think Mass Effect is going to have a huge affect (I might even have to buy a 360 :P), as will some other games, the Elite, etc. Europe is the wildcard. Until the PS3 boosts in Japan, PS3 in Japan + US = approx 360 in Japan + US. If the 360 can outsell in the PS3 in Europe by 100,000 / month - the trend will start reversing. These changes in marketshare were always bound to happen (with the 360 launching a year before the others) - what Im sure no one saw, was how fast the Wii would catch up on the 360. Take it out of the equation, and the 360 is still *very* comfortable.

I just think that they graphics potential for the 360 and PS3 is it main attractor. So if most people don't have a TV capable of getting those graphics, then you lose that selling point. Then add to that, not that many games out, and a large price equal to some peoples monthly rent and you have a problem. We should get a good idea when we see the May numbers. Since the launch will be over and done with and we should just see the actual demand for PS3. If the Wii doesnt catch the 360 WW this year it is only because they couldn't make enough systems. I think if they shipped 4 million units tomorrow they would sell through them in a couple months at most and have the lead. So it is just a supply issue. I think when all is said and done the Wii will have atleast 60% of the market share while 360 and PS3 will split the other 40%. Wii just has that sweet price already, it appeals to many people. And even people that buy a 360 or PS3 will buy a Wii at some point. When sales drop off they could drop the price by $100 if they need to and include Wii Sports / Wii Play / Wii Health and a second set of controllers and still probably make a profit on the hardware.

Great Post Looks like the PS3 and Wii are putting the 360 back in check and I doubt it will slow down any time soon if ever. I think we will see the market really fluctuate a lot through the end of this year to the midle of next with the PS3 taking the lead in late 08 to early 09. 2007 360 - 38% 16M Wii - 34% 14M PS3 - 29% 12M 2008 Wii - 34% 23M PS3 -34% 23M 360 - 32% 22M 2009 PS3 - 37% 36M Wii - 33% 32M 360 - 30% 30M 2010 PS3 41% 54M Wii 30% 40M 360 28% 38M 2011 PS3 - 44% 70M 360 - 28% 44M Wii - 28% 44M 2012 PS3 - 46% 84M 360 - 28% 50M Wii - 26% 47M

Do you have any reason for this belief besides faith?

The PS3 and 360 are not just about graphics.They are about the amount of things you can do on screen and in the background. The problem that the wii will start to face by end of this year and deeper into 08 is the amount of interactivity with everything around you. With the PS3 a developer can make a game with 100's of charictors on screen, with real world phyisics, world class AI, amazing animation, distructable enviornments, use motion control, and to add on to that it can have extreamly detailed graphics. IMO this is were the generation gap will really be felt in games. Also the wii's motion is really good at some things, but at other things it is overkill especially on an under powered system. This is were I believe Sony got the controller better, because it gives you just the right amount of motion controll for what we are able to acheive right now. Plus the 360 and PS3 also bring more to the table with their communities. Home and live will be 50M strong by the end of this gen and right now wii has none.

Here is how I see big releases coming out late this year...and how they impact sales...it is really a best case case scenario for Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony. Wii 360 PS3 September Americas 450,000 600,000 300,000 (Super Mario Galaxy) (Halo 3) (Madden carryover) Japan 450,000 20,000 90,000 (Nights 2/Opoona) (Halo 3) (White Knight Story) Others 300,000 180,000 120,000 (Mario Party 8) (Halo 3) (Various soccer games) October Americas 550,000 750,000 420,000 (DDR Wii, Guitar Hero 3) (Halo 3/GTA/Assassins Creed) (GTA/Assassins Creed) Japan 400,000 40,000 150,000 (Final Fantasy: CC Wii) (Devil May Cry 4) (Monster Hunter, DMC4) Others 250,000 220,000 250,000 (DDR Wii, Mario Galaxy) (Devil May Cry 4, GTA, Ass. Creed) (GTA, Ass. Creed, DMC4) November Americas 850,000 1,000,000 600,000 (Nights 2, Red Steel 2, Wii Fitness) (Lost Odyessey, GTA, Halo 3) (White Knight Story) Japan 550,000 50,000 250,000 (Wii Fitness, Resident Evil) (Lost Odyssey) (Metal Gear Solid 4) Others 550,000 400,000 450,000 (Guitar Hero Wii, Red Steel 2, Nights 2) (Fable 2, Lost Odyessey) (White Knight Sotry) December Americas 1,150,000 1,000,000 850,000 (Metroid 3, Mario & Sonic, Wii Music, RE) (Too Human, Mercenaries) (Too Human, MGS 4) Japan 850,000 50,000 350,000 (Mario & Sonic, Wii Music) (PSO, Bladestorm, RE) (Lair, Blade Storm) Others 700,000 500,000 600,000 (Metroid 3, Mario & Sonic, Wii Music) (Too Human) (Lair, Too Human)

Yes, I IMO read the post above then think about the possibilities of Home with teenagers. If it takes off with them that really stomps the 360s main market unless they upgarde live substantually. With the Wii's lack of power it can not substain these numbers very long. Once More real 360 games come out like mass effect, Halo 3, and Forza 2 along with real PS3 games like MGS4, Uncharted, GT5, FFXIII, and Ratchet are out people will feel the age of wiis tech. Once more Devs start to use Blu Ray and get their heads around the PS3 arcutecture we will see games that are much more immersive than any Wii game and most 360.

If people were willing to pay $600 for improved Graphics, AI, Physics and Online Communities than PC gaming would be far greater than console gaming. The fact is that people buy consoles because they're simple to use, inexpensive and fun. Whether you like it or not, one of the main reasons the PS3 is struggling in North America and Japan is that the number of people who are willing to spend that much money on a console is really small; if sales don't pick up the console won't have the games when its price is reduced to sell any more systems.

You know that the PS3 processor is faster than a C2Q, and about the same speed as the new cheap NV graphics card. Add in some memory, HDD, case, your looking at spending around 2200$ (note the processor, that is why it's so high) the PS3 is a powerhouse. The PS3 in 5 years will produce graphcis that look MUCH better than crysis.