Tracking Market Share

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DRJ said: I think so. Especially with low HD penatration in Europe... Everyone that wanted one got one, now I expect it to slow way down. It is just too expensive for most people. Sony needs to reduce the price by $200 at least just to move the product. Otherwise they will lose more and more market share, then they start to lose games.

I don't think a lack of HD penetration limits in any way the sales of PS3 and XBOX 360. It is not like the Wii is the height of standard def graphics and PS3 and 360 can only surpass it with the help of HD. However, among those who do buy an HDTV, however few, I would imagine that they would be more likely to buy a PS3/360 than a Wii. Remember, despite what Sony and Microsoft might say, no console or even supercomputer has come even close to maximizing what can be displayed in standard definition. Ask yourself, what looks better, a Live NFL game on a crappy Philips TV, or Madden PS3 on a Bravia. In fact the average person can distiguish CGI from real life in movies as well, despite the fact that the effects are prerendered. Back to the point, the big question is if Microsoft will get a large enough bump in its US christmas sales to hold off the Wii worldwide. Microsoft should sell well over 1.5 million consoles in December in the U.S. alone and around 3 million in the 4th quarter. Assuming the trend is roughly 2/3 of 360 sales are in the U.S., we could see Microsoft push over 4.5 million consoles worldwide in the 4th quarter of this year. Microsoft will hold off Wii through the end of 2007, and may actually increase the small lead it holds at the end of September. The end of 2007 ww sales will be.... 360 17.5 million Wii 16.5 million PS3 9 million What is amazing is that Wii may reach 75% of Gamecube sales by year end.